November 2021

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I guess we hope the mjo gets moving I suppose but unless it's in phase 7, it will be warm for a while 

All we are really seeing from the 11-15 day ensembles is a snapshot of what the first week of December may look like. It’s tough to extrapolate a whole month from a week 2 forecast. The main December pattern may not come into better focus until we get closer to the start of December. 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Mine too. 40-48-44 weird

36-45-38-50-40

[MJO812]

Gfs keep showing a better pattern evolving by the 1st week of December. Hopefully it continues.

[donsutherland1]

A cold front will cross the region tonight with some showers. Tomorrow will start mild but the temperature will hold steady or fall during the afternoon as the coldest air so far this season overspreads the region. New York City's Central Park could see its first freeze on either November 23 or November 24. That would be slightly later than the mean 1991-2020 date of November 20. Last year's first freeze occurred on October 31, which was the earliest first freeze since 1988.

No measurable snow appears likely in much of the region through the coming week. However, any such snowfall would be unusually early. Much of the region typically sees its first measurable snowfall in December.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 will likely wind up below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period):

Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4°
New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7°
Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7°

The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 20 4 pm is 16.23".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.793 today.

On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.244 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.8° (1.2° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

Next Euro seasonal monthly forecast for the December on the 5th.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will see clouds break later in the day after some earlier showers. After a mild start, temperatures will begin to fall, especially during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 51.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.7°

The coldest air mass of the season will bring about widespread freezes tonight and tomorrow night.

[bluewave]

This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st  at several stations across the region.

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	57.1	0
2	2017-11-21	56.1	0
-	2011-11-21	56.1	6
3	2015-11-21	55.8	0
4	2007-11-21	55.5	0
-	2005-11-21	55.5	0
5	2014-11-21	55.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	63.6	0
2	2015-11-21	62.6	0
3	1971-11-21	62.5	0
4	1961-11-21	62.4	0
5	2017-11-21	62.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.2	0
4	2016-11-21	59.5	0
-	1990-11-21	59.5	0
5	2005-11-21	59.4	0
-	1971-11-21	59.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
-	2016-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.5	0
4	2011-11-21	60.0	0
5	1977-11-21	59.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.4	0
2	2011-11-21	59.4	0
3	1975-11-21	59.3	0
-	1931-11-21	59.3	0
4	2017-11-21	59.2	0
5	1971-11-21	59.0	0

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  41degs.(35/46), or -3.

Month to date is  49.0[-0.4].       Should be near  46.8[-1.1] by the 30th.

Reached 56 at 11pm here yesterday.

Today:   up to 53 early, then falling to 35 by tomorrow AM.      Rain ending by Noon, wind w to nw and breezy later.  Clearing late.   GFS is again back to the 60's by December 04th.       12/04---12/13===AN.     12/14---12/25===BN.

50*(85%RH) here at 6am.      49* at 7am.     51* at 10am.      52* at 11am.     51* at Noon.      47* at 4pm.      40* at 8pm.       37* at Midnight.

 

[thunderbolt]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st  at several stations across the region.

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	57.1	0
2	2017-11-21	56.1	0
-	2011-11-21	56.1	6
3	2015-11-21	55.8	0
4	2007-11-21	55.5	0
-	2005-11-21	55.5	0
5	2014-11-21	55.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	63.6	0
2	2015-11-21	62.6	0
3	1971-11-21	62.5	0
4	1961-11-21	62.4	0
5	2017-11-21	62.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.2	0
4	2016-11-21	59.5	0
-	1990-11-21	59.5	0
5	2005-11-21	59.4	0
-	1971-11-21	59.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
-	2016-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.5	0
4	2011-11-21	60.0	0
5	1977-11-21	59.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.4	0
2	2011-11-21	59.4	0
3	1975-11-21	59.3	0
-	1931-11-21	59.3	0
4	2017-11-21	59.2	0
5	1971-11-21	59.0	0

And check out Alaska the total opposite

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st  at several stations across the region.

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	57.1	0
2	2017-11-21	56.1	0
-	2011-11-21	56.1	6
3	2015-11-21	55.8	0
4	2007-11-21	55.5	0
-	2005-11-21	55.5	0
5	2014-11-21	55.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	63.6	0
2	2015-11-21	62.6	0
3	1971-11-21	62.5	0
4	1961-11-21	62.4	0
5	2017-11-21	62.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.2	0
4	2016-11-21	59.5	0
-	1990-11-21	59.5	0
5	2005-11-21	59.4	0
-	1971-11-21	59.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
-	2016-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.5	0
4	2011-11-21	60.0	0
5	1977-11-21	59.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.4	0
2	2011-11-21	59.4	0
3	1975-11-21	59.3	0
-	1931-11-21	59.3	0
4	2017-11-21	59.2	0
5	1971-11-21	59.0	0

Same here in SNE. As of Saturday Boston was on pace for warmest year on record and warmest fall. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Same here in SNE. As of Saturday Boston was on pace for warmest year on record and warmest fall. 

Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/
 

[MJO812]

Freeze warning in effect for the NYC area

[Allsnow]

Going to be some huge snow departures in the upper Midwest to start December. The nao will help keep us cool but for them it’s been all pac flow 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be some huge snow departures in the upper Midwest to start December. The nao will help keep us cool but for them it’s been all pac flow 

The lakes are also going to start cranking while here and SNE are still waiting for snowfall. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

And check out Alaska the total opposite

It’s from the severely negative PDO and ++EPO that have been in place since early September 

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The lakes are also going to start cranking while here and SNE are still waiting for snowfall. 

Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately 

Boring pattern next 2-3 weeks.....just a series of cold fronts with pac air behind them each time and accompanied by some showers.  

[SACRUS]

In the teens 3 years ago today and tomorrow (2018) freeze.  

 

Next 10 days looks like 7 of 10 are colder with peak cold 11/27 - 11/29 maybe teens inland or low 20s.  Dec 3 and beyond is way out there but looks warm for a period.  Roller Coaster looks to continue (colder lean now through Dec 2) may swing the opposite way Dec 3 - 10.

[LoboLeader1]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately 

It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/
 

how come we're not getting tornadoes like new england is getting?  warmer to our north?

 

[LoboLeader1]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern

IF it stays like that, give me some early spring warmth instead. Rarely do we see any significant snow around here in December.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st  at several stations across the region.

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	57.1	0
2	2017-11-21	56.1	0
-	2011-11-21	56.1	6
3	2015-11-21	55.8	0
4	2007-11-21	55.5	0
-	2005-11-21	55.5	0
5	2014-11-21	55.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	63.6	0
2	2015-11-21	62.6	0
3	1971-11-21	62.5	0
4	1961-11-21	62.4	0
5	2017-11-21	62.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.2	0
4	2016-11-21	59.5	0
-	1990-11-21	59.5	0
5	2005-11-21	59.4	0
-	1971-11-21	59.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.7	0
-	2016-11-21	60.7	0
2	2017-11-21	60.6	0
3	2015-11-21	60.5	0
4	2011-11-21	60.0	0
5	1977-11-21	59.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21	Missing Count
1	2021-11-21	60.4	0
2	2011-11-21	59.4	0
3	1975-11-21	59.3	0
-	1931-11-21	59.3	0
4	2017-11-21	59.2	0
5	1971-11-21	59.0	0

funny to see 1977 and 2014 on this list

 

[Stormlover74]

Ewr with just .02" of rain. On track for a monthly total under an inch

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/
 

I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. 

I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.

[Great Snow 1717]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. 

I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.

Considering the warming climate I think it is possible that the northeast experiences more tornadoes in the coming years. 

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the warming climate I think it is possible that the northeast experiences more tornadoes in the coming years. 

That's not what I want to hear 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

That's not what I want to hear 

Agree,  but it will be interesting to track the trend in the coming years. This morning there was a tornado warning in the Cape Ann area of MA. 

I am also wondering if more tornado warnings are being issued out of an abundance of caution.  

[Eduardo]

23 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's early-snow is generally rare around here before xmas.    I'll jump the ledge in Mid Jan-if it doesn't come by then, it's usually not coming...years like 06-07 are outliers in that regard where the cold really did come 2nd half

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015.  They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later.

 

These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes.  That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

[JustinRP37]

13 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015.  They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later.

 

These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes.  That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

People hold on to their beliefs way too much. Just go with the flow. I will never understand how seriously some take weather and the discussion of warmer versus cooler. I've had people jump down my throat when I say it looks warm just because it isn't the news they want to hear. I predicted that this month would be normal to just above normal (turns out it will be ever so slightly below normal if you want to call it that), but you'd have thought I was suggesting torch. The overnight lows on the warm days really do tend to keep us disproportionately warm. We were lucky that for November we had quite a few clear nights which allowed for strong radiational cooling, otherwise, I think we would have firmly been above normal this month. But I will say the worst snow winters I have lived through all tended to have early snow, so I for one am glad it didn't snow yet. 

For December, I am thinking it will again be near normal to just above normal, with normal chances for snow. There just isn't much out there right now to scream cold or torch so along we go descending into the darkest part of the year followed shortly by the coldest time of year. This is also the time of year that people hopefully realize "normal" temperatures can generate snow.

So to those who want warm and those who want cold, we don't control the outcome and no amount of hoping/hyping will get the desired outcome. As long as it isn't 36 with a driving rain, I'll be as happy as I can be and hopefully we can get some nice skiing in this year.