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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That warmer -PNA pattern than earlier runs matches the Euro SEAS 5 seasonal forecast now.

 

 

Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15

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The next 8 days are averaging  42degs.(37/47), or -2.

Month to date is  49.0[-0.6].       Should be  47.0[-1.0] by the 29th.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today:  53-56, wind w. to s., cloudy, drizzle late.       Really no rain till the 5th.      Cold lasts into early December, then it's over till Week 4.     GEFS-Extended has some members in the 60's all December. 

  Some Levity  PS:   WH Delays Release of JFK Documents Because They Have Not Been Completely Vaccinated Against Revealing Anything Important.       Come on---it is 58 years ago tomorrow!      The weather that day here:  51/64, cloudy, fog, drizzle and heavy rain the next day, ie. Saturday.

47*(72%RH) here at 6am.(was 46* at 5am.)    52* at Noon.      53* at 1pm.       54* at 3pm.       55* at 9pm.      56* at 11pm.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15

Those early December forecasts from the GEFS and EPS look different from the typical La Niña composite since 2000. December usually has the trough closer to the Great Lakes than the Pacific Northwest. That’s why seasonal forecasts usually have the colder departures during La Niña winters in December and sometimes into mid-January. So we have to see if the models continue this this pattern as we get closer to the start of December.

45E419C1-94F4-4BAC-BC87-6EC1471EAA9B.png.85e1f37c5df95ac0ceee8034c52fb2bf.png

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15

I think early December stays mild but turns colder as the MJO heads into 7 . 

So when do you think it turns colder?

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 57°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.0°

The coldest air mass of the season will overspreading the region later tomorrow.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those early December forecasts from the GEFS and EPS look different from the typical La Niña composite since 2000. December usually has the trough closer to the Great Lakes than the Pacific Northwest. That’s why seasonal forecasts usually have the colder departures during La Niña winters in December and sometimes into mid-January. So we have to see if the models continue this this pattern as we get closer to the start of December.

45E419C1-94F4-4BAC-BC87-6EC1471EAA9B.png.85e1f37c5df95ac0ceee8034c52fb2bf.png

 

Perhaps this is a good thing for snow lovers, not ideal by any means but also not following the typical Nina response! Maybe better down the road for this reason.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you use the the velocity potential charts, the EPS and GEFS both start December with the MJO going into phase 6. But since the EPS suffers from the Maritime Continent barrier effect, the convection is usually too weak compared to the GEFS. That’s why the GEFS RMM charts are stronger looking. Then we’ll have to see how long it takes to get to phase 7. Remember, there can  be lags between the MJO phase and how long it takes for the 500 mb pattern to show up.

BB474D75-84D6-41D8-B1CF-BC56C7DC8B52.thumb.jpeg.4a26fd0e2fe7799ce4c2481e1fac7993.jpeg

DDC3B7B7-CF3F-439B-94E8-19760A78BF9C.thumb.jpeg.8bf9dee2ed43efcf9daba117c48decce.jpeg

 

Paul Roundy has expressed doubts that it ever makes it into phase 7. Reason being, strong easterlies and cold waters from the La Niña shear it apart when the wave tries to propogate into that area

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook. 

It’s about cloud cover and the wind speed.  If the surface winds can decouple from the flow a few hundred feet up and go calm the bottom can drop out of the thermometer as shown.  The cloud cover piece is self explanatory.  I see similar events out here where on a cold morning lower spots (below 500 feet - approximately) can be colder than higher elevations due to being better able to decouple.

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very tough for a seasonal forecast issued in late October or early November to anticipate. If you look at La Niña MJO history, the amplified phase 6 occurrences usually happen in January and February with the expected  backloaded warmth. The more amplified phase 6 episodes in December that struggle to go phase 7 usually happen in El Niño’s with frontloaded warmth. So we’ll have to see if the models adjust as we get closer to December.

Chris, if the mjo indeed gets to mjo phase 6 in December, would it just mean front loaded winter calls may be in trouble and a really warm winter more than first thought could be ensuing? Alot of mixed signals imo

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2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

It’s about cloud cover and the wind speed.  If the surface winds can decouple from the flow a few hundred feet up and go calm the bottom can drop out of the thermometer as shown.  The cloud cover piece is self explanatory.  I see similar events out here where on a cold morning lower spots (below 500 feet - approximately) can be colder than higher elevations due to being better able to decouple.

Yep, same around here. Some call it fake cold but I find it very interesting. 

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41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models will correct colder as we get closer to December. Active pacific jet is muddling the model data. 

The run to run model shifts are jarring and anyone thinking the forecast is set in stone is fooling themselves.

So far the Nina has remained coupled. 

Totally agree. So far the mjo standing wave is weak and other factors seem to be driving the pattern.   many forecasted a warm November even up to a week ago and now looks like November will be solidly below normal Probably negative one to negative 2 for CPK.  1st negative 10 departure  on Tuesday? More cold coming next weekend. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very tough for a seasonal forecast issued in late October or early November to anticipate. If you look at La Niña MJO history, the amplified phase 6 occurrences usually happen in January and February with the expected  backloaded warmth. The more amplified phase 6 episodes in December that struggle to go phase 7 usually happen in El Niño’s with frontloaded warmth. So we’ll have to see if the models adjust as we get closer to December.

This will probably be the most positive EPO fall on record: 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL at people already jumping off the ledge in November 

it's early-snow is generally rare around here before xmas.    I'll jump the ledge in Mid Jan-if it doesn't come by then, it's usually not coming...years like 06-07 are outliers in that regard where the cold really did come 2nd half

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