donsutherland1 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 57° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.2° Newark: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.0° The coldest air mass of the season will overspreading the region later tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those early December forecasts from the GEFS and EPS look different from the typical La Niña composite since 2000. December usually has the trough closer to the Great Lakes than the Pacific Northwest. That’s why seasonal forecasts usually have the colder departures during La Niña winters in December and sometimes into mid-January. So we have to see if the models continue this this pattern as we get closer to the start of December. Perhaps this is a good thing for snow lovers, not ideal by any means but also not following the typical Nina response! Maybe better down the road for this reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The key may be how long the MJO stalls in phase 6. Euro has it in phase 7 by early December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Interesting night on the island. Wind direction and warm waters do their thing. Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: If you use the the velocity potential charts, the EPS and GEFS both start December with the MJO going into phase 6. But since the EPS suffers from the Maritime Continent barrier effect, the convection is usually too weak compared to the GEFS. That’s why the GEFS RMM charts are stronger looking. Then we’ll have to see how long it takes to get to phase 7. Remember, there can be lags between the MJO phase and how long it takes for the 500 mb pattern to show up. Paul Roundy has expressed doubts that it ever makes it into phase 7. Reason being, strong easterlies and cold waters from the La Niña shear it apart when the wave tries to propogate into that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook. It’s about cloud cover and the wind speed. If the surface winds can decouple from the flow a few hundred feet up and go calm the bottom can drop out of the thermometer as shown. The cloud cover piece is self explanatory. I see similar events out here where on a cold morning lower spots (below 500 feet - approximately) can be colder than higher elevations due to being better able to decouple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 If we get stuck in phase 6 most of these cold December forecasts are in trouble... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we get stuck in phase 6 most of these cold December forecasts are in trouble... Agree then the warm forecasts might also be in trouble if it gets cold in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we get stuck in phase 6 most of these cold December forecasts are in trouble... I agree. The rmm charts can be misleading because sometimes the the mjo is actually in a certain phase where the charts have it somewhere else. Things dont match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very tough for a seasonal forecast issued in late October or early November to anticipate. If you look at La Niña MJO history, the amplified phase 6 occurrences usually happen in January and February with the expected backloaded warmth. The more amplified phase 6 episodes in December that struggle to go phase 7 usually happen in El Niño’s with frontloaded warmth. So we’ll have to see if the models adjust as we get closer to December. Chris, if the mjo indeed gets to mjo phase 6 in December, would it just mean front loaded winter calls may be in trouble and a really warm winter more than first thought could be ensuing? Alot of mixed signals imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook. Islip's temps last night were bouncing all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Models will correct colder as we get closer to December. Active pacific jet is muddling the model data. The run to run model shifts are jarring and anyone thinking the forecast is set in stone is fooling themselves. So far the Nina has remained coupled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Gfs is very close to a coastal storm next weekend. We should watch it since the NAO is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Tatamy said: It’s about cloud cover and the wind speed. If the surface winds can decouple from the flow a few hundred feet up and go calm the bottom can drop out of the thermometer as shown. The cloud cover piece is self explanatory. I see similar events out here where on a cold morning lower spots (below 500 feet - approximately) can be colder than higher elevations due to being better able to decouple. Yep, same around here. Some call it fake cold but I find it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: If we get stuck in phase 6 most of these cold December forecasts are in trouble... Who is that? December looks +2 to +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models will correct colder as we get closer to December. Active pacific jet is muddling the model data. The run to run model shifts are jarring and anyone thinking the forecast is set in stone is fooling themselves. So far the Nina has remained coupled. Totally agree. So far the mjo standing wave is weak and other factors seem to be driving the pattern. many forecasted a warm November even up to a week ago and now looks like November will be solidly below normal Probably negative one to negative 2 for CPK. 1st negative 10 departure on Tuesday? More cold coming next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Maybe we should discuss the warm november forecasts before declaring december forecasts a bust. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Very tough for a seasonal forecast issued in late October or early November to anticipate. If you look at La Niña MJO history, the amplified phase 6 occurrences usually happen in January and February with the expected backloaded warmth. The more amplified phase 6 episodes in December that struggle to go phase 7 usually happen in El Niño’s with frontloaded warmth. So we’ll have to see if the models adjust as we get closer to December. This will probably be the most positive EPO fall on record: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Maybe we should discuss the warm november forecasts before declaring december forecasts a bust. Yea the person who was so sure that November would be above normal is now posting this December stuff lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 A -epo Will usually dump the cold into the central US. Storm track would be to our West with lots of cutters especially with no nao help. It's not the end all be all for Winter forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Maybe we should discuss the warm november forecasts before declaring december forecasts a bust. My November forecast isn't looking too bad as of now for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 LOL at people already jumping off the ledge in November 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL at people already jumping off the ledge in November it's early-snow is generally rare around here before xmas. I'll jump the ledge in Mid Jan-if it doesn't come by then, it's usually not coming...years like 06-07 are outliers in that regard where the cold really did come 2nd half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Islip's temps last night were bouncing all over the place. Mine too. 40-48-44 weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Yea the person who was so sure that November would be above normal is now posting this December stuff lol. Yeah really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is very close to a coastal storm next weekend. We should watch it since the NAO is rising. Thread is already there and set up... maybe we can actually get something. Jury out and I've no solid clue. Later edit... at 236P. Or did you mean 12/3-5? We're getting ensembles to get see very cold 500MB departures Tue and Fri night. Sooner or later, some snow or flurries has to get down here to NYC or near. If not in this pattern, then I'm less confident on any extended predictability beyond Dec 2 as big Greenland block looks to have disappeared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Barely a warmup on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 The MJO standing wave near Phase 5 this month is part of the reason that we are seeing a colder pattern in November. Notice how the coldest departures this month are over the Southeast. This is a good match for the MJO 5 standing wave. La Niñas also tend to be cooler in November like I posted at the beginning of this November thread. I also posted how November has been our coldest departure fall month since 2010. So this cooler November pattern is no surprise. Now, December La Niña climo typically has December as the coolest departure month of winter. This is why many seasonal forecasts go cooler in December. But the MJO 5 standing wave in December is a warmer departure pattern in December due to changing wavelengths going into winter. So we don’t want to see the models continuing with such a robust MJO 5 or 6 standing wave forecast for early December. This is a bit unusual for La Ninas since the stronger MJO 5-6 activity usually occurs in January or February like we saw during our last coupled La Niña in 17-18. So it will be interesting to see how the model forecasts evolve over the next 10 days or so for early December. MJO standing wave near phase 5 since early November Current colder November pattern centered in Southeast matches Same MJO with December wavelength changes is warmer 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 we've had the same general departure pattern all year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we've had the same general departure pattern all year This is one of the few times this year that the over the top warm pattern got pushed further north and allowed cooler temperatures in the mid-Atlantic to near our area. Most of the year had the coldest departures focused near Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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