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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First light snow obs at the ASOS of the season.

METAR KMVL 031015Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -SN BR SCT003 OVC028 01/00 A3013

It is snowing nicely at the mountain.  Bet 1500ft is white when I get there shortly.

Hit a shower of rain to snow/sleet as I drove into BTV about 10 minutes ago.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Winter coming down in elevation.

1500ft looking real nice and snowing.

3E26B95E-9B50-45D0-9CF0-157DD268C269.thumb.jpeg.5747d323c54bea4d6695f38c234a5d96.jpeg

It's more than just upslope..  ( to the straw dude - )

The nose ( exit ) region of a 500 mb S/W is approaching from southern Ontario. This is causing some lower level convergence extending along/over the St L Seaway at the surface. Along and in front of this axis, west flow flow through lingering continental moisture supply ( delayed growth/soils ) but most likely also modest thete-e flux off Huron, Erie and Ontario probably factor.  

Topographic-forced accent as those west trajectories arrive then is combining with some scaled lift potential from the above mechanics, with a modest difluence with the approach of that jet etc.. So you get a bit of synergistic feed-back there... too, sure. There's meso-beta scaled baroclinic leaf passing into the region as illuminated by IR, with cooling/cold cloud tops -

The whole of it has enough synoptic support ... 

image.png.6e8bc934004f5b0bedf2287dd29167ba.png

I'd argue this is your first synoptic event of the season - however limited to just aesthetics it may be. I think it should be noted, frankly. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's more than just upslope..  ( to the straw dude - )

The nose ( exit ) region of a 500 mb S/W is approaching from southern Ontario. This is causing some lower level convergence extending along/over the St L Seaway at the surface. Along and in front of this axis, west flow flow through lingering continental moisture supply ( delayed growth/soils ) but most likely also modest thete-e flux off Huron, Erie and Ontario probably factor.  

Topographic-forced accent as those west trajectories arrive then is combining with some scaled lift potential from the above mechanics, with a modest difluence with the approach of that jet etc.. So you get a bit of synergistic feed-back there... too, sure. There's meso-beta scaled baroclinic leaf passing into the region as illuminated by IR, with cooling/cold cloud tops -

The whole of it has enough synoptic support ... 

image.png.6e8bc934004f5b0bedf2287dd29167ba.png

I'd argue this is your first synoptic event of the season - however limited to just aesthetics it may be. I think it should be noted, frankly. 

Agreed, it’s got good deep layer flow from the lakes and decent upper air support to generate lift outside of terrain… it’s one of the many combo light events we get all winter.

The upper level cold pool definitely helping lower snow levels too.

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12 hours ago, rimetree said:

GYX shared this on the socials yesterday. Not a fan of this map...I'd think we would have better resolution than 25"? Kinda funny with the mini jack zone just across the NH border from Ray's hood...

Image

I actually am not sure about that weenie spot of 75" plus just north of me.....that would imply I am at least near 70", which I think is a bit high. I would extend the 75+ down to just N and W of ORH.

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31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's always a good time to remind ourselves that ensembles should be favored beyond day 5. Large swings in model guidance are still likely. 

Meanwhile...the GEFS & EPS have been rather consistent for the offshore Sunday system. Passing harmlessly out by Bermuda. GEFS slightly more consistent.

Yup ...

My own muse:  interestingly, the Euro scoring - it never was this 'iffy' ( for lack of better description) at D 4's.  Last night's run  as the sets that synoptic table along the SE coast and astride Atlantic, as the outlier already - 

My personal experience with the Euro over ... the last 20 years really ... is that it has two rather dependably timed, broadly painted amplitude strokes that it washed synoptic finishes - those being the relay from D5 to 6 ... then again, D 7 to 8.    *Usually* on the short side of D 5's ... about 10 years ago, that model could not be beat. 

But it seems I have seen more occurrences in the recent .. 4 or 5 years of that guidance were D4 is come into question - based in no small part that its 'bust'/error frequency seems to have increased. It's still a very good model.  I mean ...we are not taking it down from the top of the totem pole ( like this culture likes to meteorite impact fame at least excuse imagined ...and we judge the same way in here...) ..

It'll be interesting this next run here in a little bit, to see if these other guidance sources start bumping that coastal closer to the coast.   One thing we have to consider is that the governing mechanics for that would-be storm are coming off the Pacific along a rather flat trajectory - as is such, almost purely assimilated.  Assimilation has come a long way and  ...yeah, probably unlikely that it is the present reason for model-to-model variance. Still, that probability isn't 0.  We have seen systems in the last 10 years be all but pancaked out to sea entirely, and then 48 hours out they came 'storming' back in the guidance, too -

The only reason it matters is because there's this tide concern.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually am not sure about that weenie spot of 75" plus just north of me.....that would imply I am at least near 70", which I think is a bit high. I would extend the 75+ down to just N and W of ORH.

Agreed....the 75" should come down to almost ORH airport (they were 72.8" on the latest 1991-2020 avg) along the spine there in Princeton/Rutland.

Also, prob shouldn't have that sub-50" zone in 495...that is totally fake. Prob a bad coop or two affecting that plot in there.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed....the 75" should come down to almost ORH airport (they were 72.8" on the latest 1991-2020 avg) along the spine there in Princeton/Rutland.

Also, prob shouldn't have that sub-50" zone in 495...that is totally fake. Prob a bad coop or two affecting that plot in there.

Yea, the one in E NH is bogus, too.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the one in E NH is bogus, too.

Yeah it's all bogus north of BOS....those north shore towns should be over 50....unless maybe you are literally out in the ocean like the tip of Cape Ann or maybe some of those communities near Marblehead.

 

The 75+ should also extend down to far NW CT in Litchfield county and you could prob put a 100-spot or two in the northern Berkshires on the crest there over 2000-2500 feet.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually am not sure about that weenie spot of 75" plus just north of me.....that would imply I am at least near 70", which I think is a bit high. I would extend the 75+ down to just N and W of ORH.

This is going to be Coop and ASOS data only, so obviously there are some gaps to begin with. I think couple that with the fact that this weenie jackpot is most likely West Hampstead, they only have data back to 2004, so they've been pummeled in recent years and their normal isn't the full period that other sites are. 

In just under 20 years of records they have 4 100" seasons and another at 98".

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Cape Ann is in the 50”+ zone?  I’ve been here since 17-18 and we’ve yet to break 30” in one winter. We came close last year with 29.5”. 

Maybe the tip of Cape Ann isn't. But most of it would be in the 50 zone. They can be kind of boom or bust there.

There's also no way you didn't break 30" in 2017-2018. The 1/4/18 and 3/13/18 events alone almost get you there....then add events like Xmas 2017, Feb 17-18, Mar 7-8 and then other random 2-4" type events

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