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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.


wdrag
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Weatherflow Tempest is doing just fine... #'s comparable to surrounding weather underground and will review with CoCoRaHs later this morning. On-line till about 11 and then done til 5P or later. Wantage NJ so far as of 610AM 2.51".

When you're in the heart of it, sometimes you like to raise amounts. Holding firm. I think much of NNJ NYC Metro and se NYS, ne PA will be around 5-6" with the bulk done by 2PM (less e LI CT). Isolated 8" by the time this is done daybreak Wednesday, somewhere with 40 miles of the NJ/NYS border into extreme ne PA border with NYS.  I just need to think of the entire forum. Will rereview title in a few minutes. 

The wind is another story.  I could see a pulse of 35-40kt gusts  10A-2P, but the real deal back breaker is the well defined southwest moving 70-85kt 850 MB jet core rotating back toward us with the storm center. Wind gusts for a 2-4 hour period of 50+ MPH gusts for LI, CT  s of I84 tonight, mainly 10P-7A and that will probably result in quite a few power outages with potential for 70 MPH gusts e LI. I relied on the HRRR, HRRRX, and the Richardson # with the 3KNAM--- i t looks very rough s CT e LI. The only hold back by mets may the somewhat less than ideal sounding (not adiabatic), but turbulent turnover may win out. Be prepared for the power outages late tonight which if occur will mean power out for quite a while, and if they don't occur, it's an area for modeling improvement (or my faulty terpretation).

Will update the overall thread for Friday-Saturday by 7AM.  

Added the HRRRX for axis of best rainfall. 

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We are at the “get your car off the street“ phase in Carteret already. Emergency alert just came through for flooding. There are already pockets of flooding, but people are reacting sooner than usual this time. 
 

ETA: over 3 inches here

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7 minutes ago, doncat said:

1 inch past 30 minutes....over 3" now.

That's quite impressive, especially so early on in the storm.  At least as of yesterday, seems most forecasters/models were not expecting rainfall rates to reach or exceed 2" per hour... as @wdragmentioned, this has the potential to be a higher-impact flooding event than currently signaled by NWS.

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32 minutes ago, jconsor said:

That's quite impressive, especially so early on in the storm.  At least as of yesterday, seems most forecasters/models were not expecting rainfall rates to reach or exceed 2" per hour... as @wdragmentioned, this has the potential to be a higher-impact flooding event than currently signaled by NWS.

Looks like some school districts have closed schools in NJ, we never used to see this for rainstorms, I guess they are being more weather aware than the media is

 

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NYC heading for a 7" month of October with over 1.95" for this storm as of 7A. Seldom if ever see 4  onset months of 7+... not there yet but I think NYC heading for near 5 on this one. 

Added some rainfall totals... so far via CoCoRaHs and NYS mesonet. Also gusts 35-35 KT now north shore of LI as sfc low near Sandy Hook. 

 

 

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Screen Shot 2021-10-26 at 7.49.50 AM.png

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
  • IrishRob17 unpinned this topic

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