IrishRob17 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I almost had a white Christmas last year but the rain washed it away. Then Christmas evening I picked up .2" of mood snow...it could've been a nice white Christmas...such a Grinch storm that was on Christmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: In curious how they both do this winter because they haven't been accurate at all during the past few winters and for this past storm. The upgrades ruined the eps and euro. With this past storm, the Euro was great with the Saturday and Sunday runs. But it had the 0z Monday run that was too tucked to the SW of MTP. But quickly corrected 12z Monday back to the SE of MTP like the consensus. The wind gusts were also greatly improved. The problem with snowstorms was it had a cold or suppressed bias in recent years. So the heaviest totals were often too far south like in the January 2016 blizzard. It also wouldn’t push the mix line far enough north with more amped systems. That’s why the NAM was almost always spot on with the warm tongue and change to sleet when the pattern supported it. So It wouldn’t be so bad if the Euro has an occasional over amped run in the winter as long as it corrects back closer to storm time. As to the early December blocking forecasts, seems to be related to the current strat warming event. So the vortex remains weaker going forward. We usually do well on snowfall as long as the SPV doesn’t go wild like we saw in 19-20. So hopefully, these weaker SPV forecasts turn out to be correct. It will be interesting to see if this weaker SPV forecast holds going forward. Perhaps the next seasonal update on November 5th will reflect this change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Up to 62. Thinking with sun temps overperform today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Yosemite on arrival into SFO. Snow line from storm just to the west. Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Up to 62. Thinking with sun temps overperform today 64 here right now, despite it being mostly cloudy. Mild pattern will continue for awhile. Looking at long range, maybe we finally get some slightly below normal air coming in around the 5th of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: 64 here right now, despite it being mostly cloudy. Mild pattern will continue for awhile. Looking at long range, maybe we finally get some slightly below air coming in around the 5th of November. It won't come in without a WAR fight but yes cooler air is likely. I think the growing season will end for most late next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 we are having another negative nao October...there aren't many years that had a neg nao on average from Oct thru March...1968-69 did it last...there are not many years with a neg nao from Oct or brfore thru January...2010-11 did it last... neg Oct years and the next three months...regardless of what the nao did after October there are some great analogs on the list...a few duds also...but the great ones win out... n=neg p=pos a=neutral year..........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1952-53.....n.......n.......n.......p... 1955-56.....n.......n.......p.......n... 1960-61.....n.......n.......a........p... 1966-67.....n.......a.......p........n 1968-69.....n.......n.......n........n 1970-71......n.......n.......n........n... 1973-74.....n.......n.......p.......p... 1975-76.....n.......p.......a........n 1980-81.....n.......n.......p........p... 1981-82.....n.......n.......a........n... 1982-83.....n.......p.......p.......p 1988-89.....n.......n.......p.......p... 1992-93.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1993-94.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1994-95.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1997-98.....n.......n.......n.......p... 2002-03....n.......n.......n.......p... 2003-04....n.......p.......p.......n... 2004-05....n.......p.......p.......p... 2005-06....n.......n.......n.......p 2006-07....n.......p.......p.......p 2009-10.....n.......a.......n.......n... 2010-11.....n.......n.......n.......n... 2012-13.....n.......n.......p.......p... 2013-14.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2014-15.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2019-20.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2020-21.....n.......p.......n.......n... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The early November pattern looks like a continuation of last winter on the 12z Euro. Main cold shot goes down the Plains with the WAR putting up resistance in the Northeast. So the cold takes its time coming East. When the colder air finally arrives in our area, the departures aren’t as cold as to our west. This is exactly why I would be hesitant to predict a cold November in the east. The SE ridge/WAR are feeding off those record super warm SSTs along and off the east coast, a positive feedback loop is in place. I also do not think you are going to sustain +PNA this time around, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, a very strong -PDO and a -PMM, any +PNA isn’t gong to be around very long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It won't come in without a WAR fight but yes cooler air is likely. I think the growing season will end for most late next week. The growing season will probably end for northwest areas late next week, but I'm not sure about our area. It's going to be close. To me right now it looks as if our lows might get down to the mid-upper 30s with the cool shot late next week. Might not be quite cold enough for frost, but it's close and we have a ways to go. Wouldn't be surprised if it trends not as cold as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Yosemite on arrival into SFO. Snow line from storm just to the west. Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes It would be ok with me if you posted more shots like this. Over the mountains, the Grand Canyon, etc. I love trying to figure out where aerial pics were taken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 The storm responsible for a widespread 2"-4" rainfall with some amounts in excess of 6" began moving away from the region today. Clouds broke, but it remained windy throughout the afternoon. In the wake of the storm, New York City's Central Park has received 56.20" of precipitation this year. That makes 2021 New York City's 17th wettest year on record. After a dry but cool day tomorrow, another storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts late Friday into Saturday. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 27 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first or second week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 27 is 14.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +7.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.621 today. On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.709 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.762 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Nice snowstorm at 228 for interior areas on the gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm at 228 for interior areas on the gfs Had my eye on that pattern for a couple days now. Lots of potential to deliver a fantasy storm. I think we'll see an even better run in the next few days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 62° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.5° Newark: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 62.8° A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely late tomorrow into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The last 4 days of October are averaging 56degs.(52/60), or +2. Month to date is 63.0[+4.4]. October should end at 62.1[+4.2]. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind ne., P. Sunny. Another 1" on Fri/Sat. to go with the 3.69" earlier in the week. First 30's for city somewhere during Nov. 4-12? 51*(71%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 11am 58* at Noon. 59* at 1pm. Reached 61* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 45 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Like we have seen in recent years, October has been one of the warmest on record across our area. So 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers have become more common. Even places like POU came close to a 60° average through October 27th. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 59.0 4 2 2017 58.5 0 3 2007 58.0 0 4 1947 57.9 0 5 1971 57.4 0 6 1931 57.3 0 7 1949 56.2 0 8 1932 55.9 2 9 1963 55.8 0 - 1946 55.8 0 10 1989 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 65.4 4 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 63.9 4 2 1971 63.5 0 3 2017 63.2 0 4 2007 63.0 0 5 1984 61.7 0 6 1995 61.6 0 7 1990 61.3 0 8 1949 61.1 0 9 1954 60.1 0 10 2013 60.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 62.1 4 2 2017 61.9 0 3 2007 61.1 0 4 1990 60.9 0 5 1971 59.7 0 6 1995 58.5 0 7 1963 58.3 0 8 2019 57.9 0 - 2013 57.9 0 - 2012 57.9 0 9 2016 57.5 0 - 2014 57.5 0 - 1984 57.5 0 10 2020 56.8 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 59.4 4 2 2007 58.2 0 3 2017 57.5 0 4 2014 55.9 0 5 2019 54.7 0 6 2012 53.7 3 7 2020 53.1 0 8 2005 52.9 0 9 2013 52.8 0 10 2016 52.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 ^Geez, that's really -PNA for the Winter https://ibb.co/DfnXmyD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The low temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 50 degrees. So far, the temperature has yet to drop into the 40s. The previous latest first reading in the 40s occurred on October 25, 1946. The normal date is October 6, which is 3 days later than during the prior 1981-2010 base period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: looks like it may hold off until later tomorrow evening at least based on latest model runs (especially north and east of NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Never got out of the 50s here today, very little sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The brief respite between storms is now ending. Clouds will increase tomorrow as another storm approaches the region. That storm will bring a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts late tomorrow into Saturday. Overall, clouds will increase tomorrow. Temperatures will remain near seasonable levels. No sharp cold shots will occur through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 28 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 50° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first or second week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 28 4 pm is 14.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +2.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.388 today. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.810 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.710 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 The last 3 days of October are averaging 57degs.(53/61), or +4. Month to date is 62.6[+4.1]. October should end near 62.0[+4.1]. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 57-61, High T comes late, wind ene. and gusty, rain after dark, 0.5"-1.5" through Sunday. GFS LR got warmer and the EURO is cooler---But Not COOL. In fact, both models < ....>! 51*(77%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 9am. 55* at 10am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 57*at 7pm. 55* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Morning thoughts… This morning the temperature fell to 49° at LaGuardia Airport. That was the first time this season that the temperature fell below 50° there and the latest first sub-50° temperature on record. The previous record was October 25, 1946. Clouds will increase and rain will arrive later in the day. A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 61° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.9°; 15-Year: 60.1° Newark: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.4° Rain will end tomorrow but clouds will linger. Drier weather should continue into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 In our new era of extreme precipitation, it has become more common for our stations to exceed 60 inches in a year. Data for January 1, 2021 through October 29, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 60.55 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 56.20 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 56.01 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 55.83 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 55.42 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 67.73 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 66.59 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 66.54 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 66.07 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 65.63 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 65.56 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 65.28 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 65.01 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 64.74 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 64.08 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.78 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 63.46 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 63.21 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.15 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 63.03 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 63.02 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.99 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.81 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 62.76 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.75 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 62.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 62.41 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.21 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 62.18 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 61.81 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 61.63 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 61.33 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 61.24 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 61.19 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 61.05 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 60.94 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 60.75 CT DARIEN 2.8 NW CoCoRaHS 60.55 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 60.42 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 60.33 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 60.27 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 60.22 NY PLAINEDGE 0.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 60.06 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 80.78 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 75.84 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 74.45 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 74.13 CT MONROE 0.1 SE CoCoRaHS 74.05 CT MADISON CENTER 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 73.82 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 73.62 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 73.58 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 73.44 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 73.05 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.98 CT RIDGEFIELD 1.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.57 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 70.94 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 70.71 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 70.59 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 70.17 Data for January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 3.2 NE CoCoRaHS 90.65 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 86.48 NY MONROE 1.7 SE CoCoRaHS 84.34 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 82.73 NY WEST POINT COOP 80.37 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 80.29 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 80.03 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 62.78 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 60.15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Currently 47 here. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Today actually feels like fall. 55, windy, leaves flying all over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 A storm will bring a general 1"-2" of rain with locally higher amounts into tomorrow morning. The remainder of tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with possible additional showers. It will be somewhat milder than today. The remainder of October will see near normal to somewhat above normal readings. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. Warming during the second week of November is possible. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 29 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (record: 34°, 1920) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 29 4 pm is 14.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.461 today. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.847 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.809 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Despite mainly cloudy skies, the chrysanthemums stood out at the New York Botanical Garden. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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