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IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021


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Another tropical related event is coming to much of the area as described by our IDA outlook thread participants. It may push the summer totals to near record levels, and possibly start the month of September with a months worth of rainfall in just one day, maybe even in 6 hours.  Public impacts will be serious in some areas from the I-95 corridor and LI northward. Thank you for participating. 

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Rainfall steady since 415A in Wantage and measuring. Models seem to be a little light on the se flank (I95) this morning.  Added ARI from WPC. Recurrence interval not often for these amounts. Definitely would not go north like EC and instead hug the HPC HREF down to I95 in NJ and LI.  Wind gusts 35-45kt may take down some water sodden trees overnight. TOR risk in SNJ may briefly move up to NYC-LI this eve but that may be too far north?  Strongest winds appear in the northerly flow overnight. 

Screen Shot 2021-09-01 at 5.06.54 AM.png

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Looking out my window there is moderate/heavy rain. Not sure why the bust posts. 

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain.

Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially)

Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust.

Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching.

But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands.

By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless)

I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain.

Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially)

Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust.

Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching.

But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands.

By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless)

I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

 

 

Dont even need to go as far as forest hills…streets in the southwest bronx are almost dry, over 1/2” in rockland already. 

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