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September Discobs 2021


George BM
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MLLRs are just a WEE bit on the steep side this morning.

steepMLLRs.gif.02d32ffe8ce8b44b23a847d70376576f.gif

Now if it were two months earlier with a stronger sun-angle resulting in steeper LLLRs w/ sufficient lower-level moisture and there was a thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into the region, especially during a favorable time of day, then.....

 

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2 hours ago, George BM said:

MLLRs are just a WEE bit on the steep side this morning.

steepMLLRs.gif.02d32ffe8ce8b44b23a847d70376576f.gif

Now if it were two months earlier with a stronger sun-angle resulting in steeper LLLRs w/ sufficient lower-level moisture and there was a thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into the region, especially during a favorable time of day, then.....

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
945 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the
week. A backdoor cold front will approach from Pennsylvania tonight,
then retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday. Low pressure may
develop near the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday as a weakening
cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moderately to heavy dense smoke aloft will obscure skies today
per latest HRRR vertically integrated smoke output. This will
continue to impact sfc temperatures today and have undercut
guidance for high temperatures today. Used the 10th percentile
from the NBM. A strong elevated mixed layer with 700 mb temps
near 13C was seen on the 13/12Z and 13/00Z IAD upper air
launches, as well as on the 0555Z NUCAPS pass just offshore.
Nearly 9 C/km in the elevated mixed layer is not a very common
observation over the eastern U.S. However, the warmer low-levels
will inhibit surface-based convection with 107 degrees
temperatures necessary to achieve this.
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59 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You're right, I made a spreadsheet of the changes- September is still one of the worst though. Met fall also extends until Dec. 31 now.

Difference.JPG

It's interesting that we've viewed March as a "more wintry" month this past decade, when the data you show points towards it being in fact the opposite. Maybe that's due to it being a more volatile month as of late, or even the few torch Marches like March '12 and '20 in the mix, but that's still fascinating to see. 

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37 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

(We tease because we love)

IAD was 0.7, which is half of 1.4, so there's that I suppose. And those are the only ones I have readily available. But it just reinforces our idea that BWI is slightly broken, as I think most of us have noticed.

It’s obvious to anyone who’s lived in the region a long time that it’s getting hotter in September, keep on snarking I guess. That’s what this board does best.

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La La Land keeps giving a small hope of some, probably brief, fall temps. Euro went a little excited with a mid-Country cooler dip! We will see - looking for persistence to see how well we can trust these models for the long-range.. My guess... we trend warmer than cooler. GFS was not quite as excited as it was at one point yesterday.

 

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s obvious to anyone who’s lived in the region a long time that it’s getting hotter in September, keep on snarking I guess. That’s what this board does best.

Obvious. I agree. It’s obviously 1.4 more at BWI and 0.7 at IAD. 

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3 hours ago, H2O said:

I would love to know when we can see a break in this pattern. 

Not anytime soon. Won’t be this warm all the time, but looks like a persistent EC ridge for at least the next 10 days. Ridge axis probably shifts a bit westward after that, but not far enough to really cool us down beyond seasonable (or our standard +2-3F). 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I suppose this is an ob …

Walking to the truck after work, about 40 yards or so, I counted 57 lantern flies. Wasn’t looking right or left, only straight ahead. They are very numerous here.

I still haven't seen one of these boyos in Silver Spring, but I have seen them in Central PA

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not anytime soon. Won’t be this warm all the time, but looks like a persistent EC ridge for at least the next 10 days. Ridge axis probably shifts a bit westward after that, but not far enough to really cool us down beyond seasonable (or our standard +2-3F). 

Wish we could get a pattern shake up from one of those PAC typhoons like Chanthu

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