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Major Hurricane Ida


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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

This is the same person who also just posted that the western eyewall was weakening not realizing it was just radarscope having an issue

How do you know there is an issue with RadarScope? Regardless, western eyewall on every radar site I can find does show some degradation compared to an hour ago. Jack is a pretty smart dude as well. 
 

Clearly this really only matters for the weather weenies out there and is still a horrible and life-threatening situation for all of SE Louisiana. 

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Just now, jrips27 said:

How do you know there is an issue with RadarScope? Regardless, western eyewall on every radar site I can find does show some degradation compared to an hour ago. Jack is a pretty smart dude as well. 
 

Clearly this really only matters for the weather weenies out there and is still a horrible and life-threatening situation for all of SE Louisiana. 

Yeah I agree, there has been an obvious detrition of the west eyewall. Doesn't matter much at this point though, catastrophic landfall is pretty much set in stone.

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Mercifully it looks like Ida has leveled off. Unfortunately, it happened too late to keep this from being a catastrophic event where the storm comes ashore. 
 

Good news- the westward ticks this morning will keep the most dangerous impacts west of the city proper. I still expect gusts over 100 across the city, but the destructive core looks to just miss at this point

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15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

This is the same person who also just posted that the western eyewall was weakening not realizing it was just radarscope having an issue

Que in the parade of weenies that try arguing that every asymmetric eyewall is due to radar issues. Do we have to go through this every time?

Yes, even intense TCs will have eyewall asymmetry. Pretty dead giveaway that its not a radar issues when it shows up from every radar site, and the weakness is on the upshear side of the storm. It does look like the weakness has become more pronounced in the last hour.

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Obviously noted many times now of the frequent lightning associated with the intense SE-NE semicircle of eyewall. But the other interesting feature is the tropopause wave NW of the eye leading ahead down path. This tropospheric boundary layer is where air rapid mass evacuation off of intense convection is colliding with rapid southerly upper level ~200 hPa jet / air flow. This is easily seen in this colorized imagery post by Stu Ostro.


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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Mercifully it looks like Ida has leveled off. Unfortunately, it happened too late to keep this from being a catastrophic event where the storm comes ashore. 
 

Good news- the westward ticks this morning will keep the most dangerous impacts west of the city proper. I still expect gusts over 100 across the city, but the destructive core looks to just miss at this point

Is it still possible the recurve happens earlier than thought?

that grand isle webcam is starting to look bad!

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Some on twitter were trying to claim an EWRC has begun but I am not sure there is evidence for that in the recon data as of now.

Agree recon data doesn’t really show it. It does look like a moat is getting more pronounced around the primary eyewall on radar. Maybe a secondary one trying to form? 

ADEE5D57-6DA1-4A3E-8715-D88F3D2B8981.png

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2 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Agree recon data doesn’t really show it. It does look like a moat is getting more pronounced around the primary eyewall on radar. Maybe a secondary one trying to form? 

ADEE5D57-6DA1-4A3E-8715-D88F3D2B8981.png

Even if that does start now that isn't good news for NOLA because of windfield expansion.

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

Radar presentation of the western eye wall appears to be improving once more.

 

Just now, mob1 said:

Inner eyewall is recovering a bit, even as the moat is still very pronounced. 

Polish_20210829_101914682.png

Looks like the magic of increasing frictional convergence imo.

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26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Even if that does start now that isn't good news for NOLA because of windfield expansion.

Irma’s wind field expanded the same way when it went over the everglades.  Is this due to initial land interactions being massive wetlands?

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Port Fourchon, featuring a sizable petroleum complex -- nearly 2.5 miles in length from north to south -- is likely to take a direct hit... 

Leeville on Louisiana hwy 1 appears it could cease to exist...

And to be entirely honest the southernmost portion of the levee on LA hwy 3235 (immediately south of Golden Meadow, LA) looks wholly insufficient to handle the forecasted level of surge. (recommend checking it out on google maps street view -- perhaps you'll have a different take.)

If the levee protecting the hwy 3235 corridor is overtopped, or fails altogether, we are really talking about a whole new ballgame in terms of devastation with a large amount of homes and businesses all the way to US90 -- and beyond.

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