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Major Hurricane Ida


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Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon.

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon.

Looks like a decent WNW** shift if the center on that last past compared to the 1st? 

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon.

It looks like it is ready to wrap up already

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Looks like max FL winds in the NE quad of 74kt and max SFMR of 63kt. Gonna take a few hours definitely to ramp back up structurally. Looks like a great time to get some shut eye for what will probably be a wild ride tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

18Z Euro ensembles, with balloon sonde data from all over the SE USA and aircraft data, now very well clustered, Central Louisiana to Mississippi.  Vermillion parish seems like a best case scenario, Abbeville, New Iberia and Morgan City would have surge issues, Lafayette would have wind issues, but a lot less people affected, especially with no mandatory evacs for NOLA, than Lafourche, Terrebonne or Jefferson parish would mean.

 

Brief West trend seems, eyeball, to have been countered by a NNW trend this evening.  Waiting on aircraft center fixes to be sure.

IdaLouisianaWxNerds.PNG

Now that is a catastrophic ensemble suite.

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Ida won't have 72 hours over the Gulf.

New GFS looks a smidge West of worst case for NOLA on track.  A smidge.  St. Mary parish.  Still bad, just not worst case.  Looks like ensembles all in Louisiana.  I think Western Vermillion parish, assuming a major, affects the least number of people in Louisiana.  Op GFS over 15" rain near landfall, less than 3 inches in almost all of Tennessee, although they probably don't need any rain for a few days.

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On track to pass this buoy just to the west in about 12 hours ...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Looking at all guidance, the thing that stands out is the lack of any disruptive influences, so that given the SST values ahead of the storm, intensification could be extreme. I think cat-4 is most likely but cat-5 is possible (around 28-29N). Also the track looks quite bad for surge issues not directly related to Lake Pontchartrain so that outcomes may need to be assessed independent of that sort of surge (although it could come into the mix and be partially mitigated by the aforementioned upgrades). 

Since no organized evacuation efforts seem likely, would hope that a very poor second best response is scrambled into place, which would be to position all possible military water rescue assets around Lake Charles through the day Saturday into Sunday morning, with the objective of moving them into affected regions Sunday night and Monday once a clear idea exists about where they are most needed. They are probably going to be needed urgently in parishes south and west of New Orleans if not in the city itself. 

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Only piece of good news is some of the intensity guidance has come down a bit. some models show a plateau in strength in the 6 hours prior to landfall. NHC hinted at potential dry air. Currently track keeps the worse west of New Orleans also.

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34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Track looks more west, hitting low population swamps…let’s hope it stays that way.

Really don't want it to go any more west though, would really increase impacts to the New Iberia-Lafayette corridor. At least those locations are inland, so would still be much better from a surge perspective. Current track may the "best" spot from an overall population impact.

Multiple hot towers on IR, Ida really getting going now.

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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