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SVR FF potential 2PM-midnight Thursday July 29: especially southern part of the NYC subforum along and s of I80 PA-NJ & LI


wdrag
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I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC.  My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses.  CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso  SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA.  I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends.   

Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT.  12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt. 

Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 6.12.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 6.13.02 PM.png

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56 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Mount Holly AFD puts a lot on the clearing this morning, maybe a surprise north/central Jersey jackpot due to the rain in SNJ this morning.

Socked in clouds here now after a sunny early morning walk.  

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah you're too far north.   Models jackpotting N NJ area

I definitely didn’t agree with the slight northward push of the slight risk at the 8AM update because north of 84 definitely isn’t seeing much severe today. 

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0659
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Areas affected...Southern New England...Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291651Z - 292251Z

Summary...Thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon could
pose a localized flash flood risk with some hourly totals between
1-2" at times.

Discussion...An approaching line of storms from western/central
Pennsylvania may begin to grow upscale and strengthen as it
approaches the urban corridor of southern NY, NJ, and eastern PA
where some breaks in cloud cover and daytime heating will
contribute to an axis of sufficient instability within an axis of
higher moisture transport. Current visible satellite shows some
breaks in cloud cover this hour while regional radar had a
weakened line of showers and thunderstorms over western/central
PA. That activity is struggling with lack of instability but to
the east, the area is becoming increasingly unstable. This could
allow for the line to strengthen with an increase in rain rates.
The 15Z HRRR shows potential for isolated 2-3" totals in and
around the NYC metro and this lines up with the 12Z HREF which
suggested potential for totals to exceed the 5 year ARI. While the
storms should be relatively progressive and will limit widespread
flash flood threat, some localized instances of flash flooding
will be possible, especially for the highly urbanized corridor.

mcd0659.gif

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