August 2021

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The strongest heat was west of the Hudson this summer. Newark is currently at the 8th warmest summer position. LGA is currently at the 11th warmest summer temperature. ISP is similar to the LGA ranking at 12 warmest. The much warmer climate allowed a place like ISP to still rank this high even with only a+1.6…June….-0.4…July….-0.7…August. Last summer was an east of the Hudson heat pattern with LGA and ISP top 3 warmest through August 13th and Newark in 6th place.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	79.5	0
2	1994-08-13	79.3	0
3	1993-08-13	79.1	0
4	2011-08-13	78.8	0
5	1988-08-13	78.2	0
6	2020-08-13	78.0	0
7	1999-08-13	77.9	0
8	2021-08-13	77.8	0
9	2005-08-13	77.7	0
10	1973-08-13	77.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2020-08-13	79.8	0
2	2010-08-13	79.7	0
3	1999-08-13	78.3	0
4	2016-08-13	78.1	0
5	2006-08-13	77.9	0
-	2005-08-13	77.9	0
-	1994-08-13	77.9	0
6	2019-08-13	77.5	0
-	2018-08-13	77.5	0
-	2012-08-13	77.5	0
-	2008-08-13	77.5	0
-	1966-08-13	77.5	0
7	2013-08-13	77.4	0
8	1952-08-13	77.2	0
9	1991-08-13	77.1	0
-	1949-08-13	77.1	0
10	2011-08-13	77.0	0
11	2021-08-13	76.9	0
-	2002-08-13	76.9	0
-	1995-08-13	76.9	0
-	1988-08-13	76.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	75.2	0
-	1999-08-13	75.2	0
2	2020-08-13	74.8	0
3	2011-08-13	74.4	0
4	2019-08-13	74.1	0
5	2013-08-13	73.8	0
-	1994-08-13	73.8	0
6	2016-08-13	73.6	0
-	2008-08-13	73.6	0
7	2012-08-13	73.4	0
8	2006-08-13	73.3	0
-	1966-08-13	73.3	0
9	2005-08-13	73.2	0
10	2018-08-13	73.1	0
11	2014-08-13	73.0	0
-	1991-08-13	73.0	0
-	1988-08-13	73.0	0
12	2021-08-13	72.9	0

The one thing that, as you probably know, bothers me about these stats is the numbers. Yes Islip is the 12th warmest summer in temperature but it is actually the 17th warmest summer. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm into the afternoon. Afterward, showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 86.1°

It will be come cooler tomorrow into next week.

[bluewave]

Following a brief break, the 70s dew points will return by Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

 

[SACRUS]

82/ 71.  Looks like a few hours of partly sunny before more clouds and scattered storms move in and front clears.    Sunday through Thu (8/19) warm and humid but likely limited chance for 90s even in the warmer spots.   Freds remnants and hung up front south of the area will likely lead to clouds and pop up storm chances mainly Tue - Thu. 

Beyond there the Western Atlantic Ridge remains anchored off the Atlantic coast.  By Fri (8/20) and into next weekend Sun (8/22) looks like the next chance at 90s.   

From there the as we head to the close of the month Mon (8/23) and beyond it continues to look warmer than normal / and likely wetter.  Tropics look to gear up as well with EC risk increasing. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The one thing that, as you probably know, bothers me about these stats is the numbers. Yes Islip is the 12th warmest summer in temperature but it is actually the 17th warmest summer. 

You can use dense rank sorting so there are no gaps between ranks.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 83 here

[lee59]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can use dense rank sorting so there are no gaps between ranks.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

 

I understand bluewave, there are just 2 ways at looking at those stats and to me they are both correct in their own way. For example, lets say you are in a car race with 5 cars, 4 tie for first and then there is the last car. Well you could say the last car was 2nd and if you went by time that is correct. However the actual finishing spot is 5th or last. Now Islip certainly did have the 12th highest temperature this summer but that can be misleading in that you might think it to be the 12th warmest summer ever. Not so, ties now count and Islip had the 17th warmest summer because 16 other years were warmer. That is all I am saying.

[Cfa]

90/77 (HI 102). Officially a heat wave.

This morning’s low of 77 might be the warmest so far this year. May not hold through the entire day though.

[psv88]

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

nyc only had  2 days of over 90 degree heat and doubtful we hit 90 today so officially nyc would not have had a heatwave..

[nycwinter]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

I see a few 88-89s in his area so it may be right

[lee59]

Temperatures are getting warmer than I thought out here on the Island. Many temps now in the upper 80s

[Stormlover74]

Ewr 91, 4 day heatwave 

[LoboLeader1]

85/RH 59%/DP 68  as of noon today. Good shot to reach the 90 degree mark again this afternoon.

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

Yes. Another LI poster at 90z

FRG, to my south is at 89. So yes…

 

[psv88]

[uofmiami]

43 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

nyc only had  2 days of over 90 degree heat and doubtful we hit 90 today so officially nyc would not have had a heatwave..

It’ll be close today depending on the when the clouds arrive. I’m 87 already in Syosset and if I get 90 today it’ll be a heatwave for me. 

[FPizz]

84 here now after a high of 89. 

[CIK62]

What is this?     An  Eight Ave./42nd Street Quickie?           LOL    

[weathermedic]

Made it to 90 at my station DP 73. Cloudy now.

[lee59]

56 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes. Another LI poster at 90z

FRG, to my south is at 89. So yes…

 

I'm now at 90 also

[STORMANLI]

91°

A little south of psv88

[rclab]

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

What is this?     An  Eight Ave./42nd Street Quickie?           LOL    

No doubt the way things are at the crossroads, right now. As always ….

[SACRUS]

upto 88 here prior to clouds -now 84, perhaps another run at 90 with more breaks in the clouds now

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

[bluewave]

It would be nice if all the seasonal forecasts from the Euro were this good. 
 

JJA forecast issued on May 1st

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yes. Another LI poster at 90z

FRG, to my south is at 89. So yes…

 

89 is my high here so far.  88 ISP (last hour)

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

nyc only had  2 days of over 90 degree heat and doubtful we hit 90 today so officially nyc would not have had a heatwave..

the majority of nyc residents experienced a four day heat wave

[Rjay]

Its interesting hear the, "this wasn't a hot summer" takes.   Even if stations end up below normal for summer they're still likely making the top 20 warmest summers list.   Think about that for a minute.  It's pretty wild.  

[Rjay]

Just now, forkyfork said:

the majority of nyc residents experienced a four day heat wave

Central Park and areas right on the south facing waters didn’t and that's it.   Saying NYC didn’t get a heatwave is ridiculous.