LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: also Aug 1949 storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ There have been a lot more storms than people think. People only remember the big ones but we probably average a TC impact once every three years would you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel Yea it is always interesting when tropical systems go well to our west but interact with other weather systems or fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, lee59 said: Yea it is always interesting when tropical systems go well to our west but interact with other weather systems or fronts. That's what makes them retain most of their strength even over land. Those are my favorite. It's honestly very difficult to get a storm to go entirely over water and have a high impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 the only nstorms I can think of that NYC was on the eastern flank was the Jersey shore 1903 hurricane and Sandy that made landfall from the southeast...one or two came from the south right over us...those are the worst scenarios... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, uncle W said: also Aug 1949 storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ I was 5 months old in Aug 49 and the headlines in that paper shows how bad things were 70 years ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like Fred remnants rainfall on Thursday, Don? I saw a map indicating that NYC and Western Long Island could get 1-3 inches of rain? There's a lot of uncertainty--a real model battle is underway. The ECMWF, RGEM, and GGEM favor a lot of rainfall. The GFS and NAM don't. Right now, something between 0.50"-1.00" appears more likely than rainfall approaching 3" or the much drier GFS/NAM idea. It's tough to place the predecessor rainfall event even this close to the onset. I think we'll know a lot more by sometime between 12z and 0z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, uncle W said: the only nstorms I can think of that NYC was on the eastern flank was the Jersey shore 1903 hurricane and Sandy that made landfall from the southeast...one or two came from the south right over us...those are the worst scenarios... what about Hazel and the storm last August? I figured a bunch of storms went to our west but still had a high impact here (anything from central PA to eastern NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. But not a big impact here since it swerved well east of here. I remember it well, it was like a windy noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. 1991 was also one of our hottest summers tied with 1993 for most 90 degree days, maybe thats why this storm was able to maintain its structure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: what about Hazel and the storm last August? I figured a bunch of storms went to our west but still had a high impact here (anything from central PA to eastern NJ) last years storm did have impact on us but not as bad as a Sandy or 1893 and 1821...Donna did more damage than Isis... 1821 from the Long Island star newspaper... 06 Sep 1821, Page 2 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 06 Sep 1821, Page 3 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: last years storm did have impact on us but not as bad as a Sandy or 1893 and 1821...Donna did more damage than Isis... 1821 from the Long Island star newspaper... 06 Sep 1821, Page 2 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 06 Sep 1821, Page 3 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com that must have been an amazing storm, how weird it retained its strength and tropical structure with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Warm/humid and clouds in the way of any real heat likely through Saturday and sometime in between remnants of Fred on a very saturated/tropical atmosphere to bring rains Wed - Fri. Beyone that if we can get any period of clearing and sustained sunshine Sun - Tue looks like the next shot at 90s, but there are hints of a closed low moving through so we need to watch. Beyond that we may clear out by the middle of next week Wed (8/25) and see more ridging build into the EC by that weekend 8/27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: that must have been an amazing storm, how weird it retained its strength and tropical structure with that track and it was before cow farts polluted the atmosphere... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: and it was before cow farts polluted the atmosphere... wish we had satellite images from back then. But nothing, not even camera images? were there cameras in 1821..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wish we had satellite images from back then. But nothing, not even camera images? were there cameras in 1821..... only aliens had them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's what makes them retain most of their strength even over land. Those are my favorite. It's honestly very difficult to get a storm to go entirely over water and have a high impact here. Yea Gloria is a good example of that. Folks in New Jersey and NYC were mostly saying it was a bust but not out on Long Island. Good thing Gloria did not hit at high tide or the flooding would have been substantial. Bob held together nicely for being so far north. Really slammed eastern New England. Another 70 miles west and it probably would have been one of the worst hurricanes ever for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Both NAM’s are way west with Fred. Most of the sub forum sees little to no rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 The 3km NAM is further west than the 0z Euro. So we get into the warm sector severe part of Fred. Probably need to see what the 12z Euro does with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Yea Gloria is a good example of that. Folks in New Jersey and NYC were mostly saying it was a bust but not out on Long Island. Good thing Gloria did not hit at high tide or the flooding would have been substantial. Bob held together nicely for being so far north. Really slammed eastern New England. Another 70 miles west and it probably would have been one of the worst hurricanes ever for Long Island. One of the things about Gloria is that people thought it was going to be a Cat 4 hit, when it was abreast of ACY it was still rated as a 135 mph hurricane screaming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Both NAM’s are way west with Fred. Most of the sub forum sees little to no rain whats causing this extreme western movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats causing this extreme western movement? Looks like H5 closer or will close off over PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats causing this extreme western movement? The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: One of the things about Gloria is that people thought it was going to be a Cat 4 hit, when it was abreast of ACY it was still rated as a 135 mph hurricane screaming north. Gloria weakened to a cat 2 before hitting nc and weakened further before reaching ACY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Gloria weakened to a cat 2 before hitting nc and weakened further before reaching ACY Yeah I think it might have even been extratropical up here. I just remember the news broadcasts that day when we were home from school talking about it as a storm of the century disaster major hurricane about to hit us directly it didn't even have a backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here. that thing is now a permanent feature year after year. Hard to get anything to come right up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here. Henri is doing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 22 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.) Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob. The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher. The wind damage from gloria was definitely worse here in suffolk county, at least that’s what my dad says, I wasn’t born yet. From what I’ve read wind gusts might have been as high as 115 mph in eastern suffolk and western suffolk probably had gusts to around 90 or so, which is similar to sandy. But I don’t think there were any big storms that took out a lot of trees like Irene and the 2010 noreaster did before Sandy, prior to Gloria, so maybe that was why damage appeared worse. Surge was definitely way worse with Sandy; Gloria hit at low tide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here. Euro just joined the bam much further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Looks like the Euro keeps the overrunning west and we get into the warm sector severe potential like the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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