July 2021

[uofmiami]

87 for the high in Syosset & Muttontown.

[KEITH L.I]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was 2018.  JFK is currently at 7 days with a 75° or higher dew point . Only 3 more days needed for the first 6 year run.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

Try 103 degrees with a dewpiont of 80..July 15th 1995..the hottest day I ever experienced

[doncat]

91° high here today.

[Cfa]

91 here, which is the high for today.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Try 103 degrees with a dewpiont of 80..July 15th 1995..the hottest day I ever experienced

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

 

[CIK62]

And remember the GFS is +4 to +7 in the LR around these parts:            (I got to 91* ultimately today and beat Central Park.)

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK hit 90 at 1 PM?  Was that their high?

 

Yes. And it was warmer than Central Park.

[BombsAway1288]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

And remember the GFS is +4 to +7 in the LR around these parts:            (I got to 91* ultimately today and beat Central Park.)

 

Those are really the numbers the GFS is spitting out for NYC? The next 2 days don't jive, 88 degree low for Central Park? And if that's saying that 88 is the low just before midnight tonight, well it's 87 now so that's way off. Unless I'm reading it all wrong of course.

Also, grossly overestimating the highs. KNYC's reporting hotspot of KLGA was 3 degrees under what this is spitting out, let alone Central Park.

What am I missing here?

[doncat]

16 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Those are really the numbers the GFS is spitting out for NYC? The next 2 days don't jive, 88 degree low for Central Park? And if that's saying that 88 is the low just before midnight tonight, well it's 87 now so that's way off. Unless I'm reading it all wrong of course.

Also, grossly overestimating the highs. KNYC's reporting hotspot of KLGA was 3 degrees under what this is spitting out, let alone Central Park.

What am I missing here?

That chart has been posted numerous times this summer and it's always way off.

[donsutherland1]

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 90s in many parts of the region. Central Park fell short of 90°, but that was likely due to thick foliage. Based on a statistical regression equation based on nearby locations, Central Park would likely have hit 91° had it not been for the trees. 90° temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 97°; Boston: 93°; Bridgeport: 90°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City-JFK: 90°; New York City-LGA: 90°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 26):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 16 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 31 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 20 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 16 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 26 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 27 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 15 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.194 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Cfa]

This wildfire smoke is insane, I didn't smell it last week but now it smells like the fire is within walking distance. It just came out of nowhere. Sky is clear to the south/east but very hazy to the north/west.

[psv88]

Beginning to think ISP readings are a bit low. Both Westhampton and Shirley hit 90 and 91 today respectively, yet ISP stuck at 89. Weird summer there. 

[Cfa]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Beginning to think ISP readings are a bit low. Both Westhampton and Shirley hit 90 and 91 today respectively, yet ISP stuck at 89. Weird summer there. 

I’ve felt that way since I moved here a couple of years ago. Granted I’m further west and slightly more north but sometimes the difference between here and there is significant.

[lee59]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 90s in many parts of the region. Central Park fell short of 90°, but that was likely due to thick foliage. Based on a statistical regression equation based on nearby locations, Central Park would likely have hit 91° had it not been for the trees. 90° temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 97°; Boston: 93°; Bridgeport: 90°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City-JFK: 90°; New York City-LGA: 90°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 26):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 16 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 31 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 20 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 16 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 26 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 27 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 15 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.194 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

Newark sure stands out when it comes to this seasons 90 plus degree days.

[wdrag]

I have nothing to hang a thread upon through Aug 10.  Maybe after Aug 10 it will start warming consistently above normal. 

I did see the early afternoon update MARGINAL Risk by SPC into the northern part of our subforum for Tuesday evening.  For now, am not highlighting via a thread. Will take another look Tuesday morning. 

[SACRUS]

7/26

EWR: 93
New Brnswck: 91
ACY: 91
PHL: 91
BLM: 90
JFK: 90
LGA: 90
TTN: 89
TEB: 89
ISP: 89
NYC: 88

[Intensewind002]

Hit 90 in lindenhurst today, dewpoint was only around 60 so it was actually fairly nice outside, minus the mosquitoes of course

[Intensewind002]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Funny how these storms always seem to do this.  It's like a repeating pattern.  Cant be a coincidence.

The electrical grid is so fragile here that a couple of distant lightning flashes takes the power down lol.

 

 

Our electrical grid is somehow good, at least in my neighborhood specifically, but the lack of storms gets frustrating sometimes. I guess it’s a south shore thing? I haven’t lost power since Sandy here and that was only for 3 days. Even in Isaias and in that big downburst in 2019 (probably the only true severe storm I’ve ever seen here) much of the town lost power but my block came out ok.

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 93 here.

Current temp 75/DP 63/RH 67%

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 90 here. Current temp 71/DP 64/RH 79%

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of July are averaging 78degs.(70/86), or +1.0.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.2].         July should end at  76.6[-0.9].

August starts BN, then goes nuts after the 6th. via the GFS, of course.

78*(53%RH) here at 6am, hazy, dirty blue.         83* by Noon.         Sea breeze kept it at 82* almost all afternoon.       Reached 85* at 7pm.

[wdrag]

Nothing for me to confidently post a useful thread through Aug 10.

Today's D! by SPC looks reasonable to me for late today to our N and NW.

I did add the 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti showing just two members w a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. 

[bluewave]

The unusually strong 500 mb anomaly over Canada allowed us to escape the major heat this July that has been common since 2010.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2021	79.1	5
2020	80.8	0
2019	80.6	0
2018	78.2	0
2017	77.3	0
2016	79.9	0
2015	79.0	0
2014	77.0	0
2013	80.9	0
2012	80.8	0
2011	82.7	0
2010	82.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2021	77.9	5
2020	82.9	0
2019	81.5	0
2018	79.8	0
2017	78.1	0
2016	81.1	0
2015	79.2	0
2014	77.0	0
2013	81.2	0
2012	80.4	0
2011	80.4	0
2010	82.8	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly sunny and very warm. Some wildfire smoke could dim the sun. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. A few places could top out in the middle 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 95°

Philadelphia: 94°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 88.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.6°

The heat will break tomorrow and cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 92/DP 66/RH 44%

[LoboLeader1]

90 here as of 1PM.  DP 61/RH 39%

[Snowlover11]

90 in yonkers.  car reads 93.

[psv88]

91 in NW Suffolk. Day 19.

 

[binbisso]

Warm today but dp in the upper 50s to low 60s makes it very comfortable outside. What a great 7 to 10 days upcoming during peak summer climo. Cool nights and pleasantly warm days. Couldn't draw it up better if I did it myself 

[doncat]

93/63 currently.