Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I stayed in the low to mid 70s. It's 71 now. All depends where you are-same here only in the 70's last few days and only 69 here right now. Areas north of NYC much cooler last 3 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am wondering if it would take a scientific journal article on the cooling of NYC summer high temperatures? We have shown on this forum how there has been a cooling since around 1990. Perhaps a well publicized scientific paper on how the quality of weather observations in our biggest city has been compromised would get the attention need for improvement. day time highs could be as much as four degrees cooler and two degrees warmer for the lows...Central Park went down hill when the weather service moved out of NYC 50 miles east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 We can go 90, 93, 93 and 90 over the next 4 days starting tomorrow And some would be impressed But that would be slightly above normal for mid July and really nice weather for outdoor activities such as beaches pools barbecues. Most reporting stations in the metro area will still be slightly below normal or normall after this period except for Newark. This will not be a July to remember except for convection and rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, binbisso said: We can go 90, 93, 93 and 90 over the next 4 days starting tomorrow And some would be impressed But that would be slightly above normal for mid July and really nice weather for outdoor activities such as beaches pools barbecues. Most reporting stations in the metro area will still be slightly below normal or normall after this period except for Newark. This will not be a July to remember except for convection and rains It’s not really so much about the temperature it’s more about the Humidity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: It’s not really so much about the temperature it’s more about the Humidity I agree but going off of today's 12ZGFS Dew points the next 4 days starting tomorrow are between 65 to 70 at 2:00 p.m. each day. Obviously near the water on Long Island and coastal New Jersey will probably be several degrees higher. not that spectacular for mid July it could be much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, binbisso said: I agree but going off of today's 12ZGFS Dew points the next 4 days starting tomorrow are between 65 to 70 at 2:00 p.m. each day. Obviously near the water on Long Island and coastal New Jersey will probably be several degrees higher. not that spectacular for mid July it could be much worse it's when it's over 70 that it feels truly awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 54 minutes ago, uncle W said: day time highs could be as much as four degrees cooler and two degrees warmer for the lows...Central Park went down hill when the weather service moved out of NYC 50 miles east... They were going to close the site in the early 1990s when the NWS moved. So maybe they made the trade off just to keep the site going. But how hard can it be to manage the tree growth around the ASOS? https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 42 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: It’s not really so much about the temperature it’s more about the Humidity Today is the perfect example of that. Mid 70s, but it feels far warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: I stayed in the low to mid 70s. It's 71 now. Same in Brookfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: They were going to close the site in the early 1990s when the NWS moved. So maybe they made the trade off just to keep the site going. But how hard can it be to manage the tree growth around the ASOS? https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html This could easily be Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 This is the worst summer weather wise! No sun! Rain rain rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just now, RippleEffect said: This is the worst summer weather wise! No sun! Rain rain rain A warmer mini version of 2009 (which was truly terrible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: A warmer mini version of 2009 (which was truly terrible) How was the winter 2009-10? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: How was the winter 2009-10? great for Jersey south-terrible here. Missed everything except the Dec storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: great for Jersey south-terrible here. Missed everything except the Dec storm... Yea February was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 The warm front will come back north tomorrow with more 90° heat in the warm spots and widespread 70s dew points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 ^Yeah temp went nowhere today 73/69 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 No where near the summer of 09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2009 was a very cool Summer with the warmest part coming in August...1960 was similar...the following winters yielded over 50" of snow each... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 GFS dropping most of the upcoming rains and turning on the heat instead. Have to figure that would happen because we are close to being the wettest ever July with 18 days to go. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Warmer air was confined to Philadelphia and southward. While Baltimore hit 96°, New York City's Central Park rose only to 72°. The warm front will gradually move northward tonight and tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably warmer. Showers or thundershowers are possible. The remainder of the work week will see temperatures mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +17.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.369 today. On July 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.391 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.382 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 44% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.2° (0.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 hours ago, uncle W said: 2009 was a very cool Summer with the warmest part coming in August...1960 was similar...the following winters yielded over 50" of snow each... 2009, 2004 were very cool overall nothing like this year June / Jul. Today and Jul 3 were the two miserable clunkers bringing the averages for Jul all the way down but Wed - Sat we should notch 3 or 4 90(+) degree days in most places (park included). Can see Thu with big over performance if we remain mostly sunny. Despite the heavy rains (centered near NYC) I'd expect Jul to finish on the positive side >+1.5. Its looking hotter towards the last week of the month and open August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: GFS dropping most of the upcoming rains and turning on the heat instead. Have to figure that would happen because we are close to being the wettest ever July with 18 days to go. Crazy model showed similar last week. Jul 18 - Jul 22 looks near normal before that heat out west come east so perhaps its onto something from the Fri 7/23 and yonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 10 hours ago, binbisso said: Newark was the only area to hit 90ﾟ yesterday The 5 boroughs Long Island most of northern New Jersey lower Hudson Valley were all between 82 and 87ﾟ. I think we gotta give the 90ﾟ threshold a break. Normal highs in the urban areas are between 86 and 88, so 90ﾟ is 2 to 4ﾟ above normal. not very special any more especially in warming climate. It's no different in Winter when a 35ﾟ high is not cold or remarkable when the normal high is 38. 95ﾟ should be the new threshold in this warming climate. anyway a beautiful 71ﾟ dew point of 67 on July 13th In this new age of global warming Many places in Central and Northern NJ hit 90 on Monday. New Brnswck was at 90 and has hit 90 () 17 times this year, matching or close to NE-NJ/ EWR. Of the 15 - 20 days of 90(+) this year is, many places are exceeding prior years in places in EWR/CNJ for 95+ days as well. I wouldnt be surprised if we see 2 or more 95+ dayes between Wed and Sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Was at Tobay beach tonight, just east of Jones Beach. Most everyone had on sweat shirts and light jackets. Definitely did not feel like July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 The GFS has checked itself into a CI Funhouse and is unavailable.......... Seriously it has 10 straight 90's and has brought back the rains to boot. EURO/CMC have 0 90's between them. Please note the 500mb heights peaked yesterday for the next 7 days. They will pop for a day on the weekend and range +1.3 to +2.3 sd., so 90's with favorable conditions otherwise...... is possible. So for fun, the next 8 days are averaging 85degs.(75/95), or +7. Month to date is 74.7[-2.5]. Should be 78.6[+1.1] by the 22nd. Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS 71*(96%RH) here at 6am., scuzzy look. Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS earlier. GFS=====GoodForSh_t! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Morning thoughts… A steamy day is in order. It will be partly cloudy and very warm today. There could be some scattered showers or thundershowers in parts of the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Looks like the usual warm spots will have chance at another heatwave next several days. The Euro has the 850s reaching +16c today and tomorrow with breaks of sun. The HRRR also shows 90° at the usual warm spots today. The Euro has 850s peaking near +18 C on Friday which support mid 90s if we can get enough sun. Humidity levels will be high with dew points back into the 70s. Today Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 73/73 and waiting for clouds to burn off and clear today. That will determine how hot we can get. Overall hot, humid and chances for storms the next 4 days through Saturday 7/17. 850 temps spike to >18c on Thu /Fri and Sat so pending on sunshine the warmer spots can touch the upper 90s. Cold front comes through Saturday evening and Sun (7/18) through Wed (7/21) look near normal before warming up towards the second part of next week (7/24) and beyond as pieces of the Western Atlantic heat push east and heights are forecast to rise in the east. Could be a very hot finish to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 4 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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