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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


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6 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Are you saying that the furnace (indoor) fan runs even when the AC (outdoor) is not "pumping out cold air"? And why if you turned it off would you not be able to turn it back on? Forgive me if this was already discussed. Assuming the fan is running while the AC is not pumping out cold air, that alone will cause high levels of humidity. The fan needs to cycle with the AC. This gives time for the condensation to run down the indoor coil and drain out of the condensate line. Otherwise you are just re-circulating most the humidity in your house.

Ya! Running the fan continuously will put humidity back in the home as it evaporates it off the coils while still inside. This is especially true with all the humidity! @mappy

AC troubles stink! Sorry you are stuck with that challenge and expense. 

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From Mount Holly AFD-

Several hires CAM`s are indicating that the storms will evolve in sort of three waves. The first, has basically already occurred with storms that developed across DelMarVA. These storms began to interact with each over and one ended up having its outflow run into a developing updraft producing several funnel clouds over Delaware this afternoon. The outflow boundaries from these storms will start to propagate north across SEPA and central Jersey through the rest of the afternoon as the forcing remains weak over the region. Heading into this evening the cold front should eventually start to slide south out of NY and will become the trigger for the third round of convection this evening and overnight. The good news is that precipitable water values should decrease considerably tonight behind the cold front. Thus, expect the risk for heavy rain to decrease by late this evening.

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4 hours ago, mappy said:

oh our compressor is running, as we have cold air coming out of the vents. humidity dropped to 54% since this morning, so who knows. i have a feeling my humid issues indoors is more our windows then the ac itself not doing its job. 

Ok so quick question … do you have a basement or crawl space? And was your ac out for a bit? Could be that it’s just gonna take some time for the humidity to go back down. From your posts it seems that it is dropping.

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2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

How's the humidity feel out in the Valley yesterday and today, @WinterWxLuvr? We just returned from walking doggo, was about 90 degrees when we started just after 5 p.m. with humidity probably in the high 60s. High clouds have since moved in here, but it's still damn muggy out.

Like soup today. Not especially hot but very muggy.

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I was on the outer loop of the beltway coming from Potomac exit (cabin john?) to NoVA last night around 10 or 11. Caught a good cell. Pouring. Saw a lot of cars pulled over on the beltway with flashers on. Crossed over the Am. Legion bridge, nary a drop in NoVA.

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7 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Euro said I was getting 4 inches of rain this week. I haven't seen a drop yet.

 

6 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep, me either.  

You get a FFW!

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ027-028-030-031-
052>054-501-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-101500-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0002.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and
Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Shenandoah-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Waldorf, South Gate, Bowie,
Arlington, Purcellville, Bayard, Sterling, Columbia, Ashburn, Mount
Jackson, Front Royal, Leesburg, Russelldale, Grantsville, Lexington
Park, Frostburg, Lusby, Montclair, Alexandria, Paw Paw, Washington,
Warrenton, Franconia, Ridgeville, Mount Storm, Charles Town,
Winchester, Damascus, Petersburg, Chantilly, Ballenger Creek,
Huntingtown, College Park, Chesapeake Beach, Greenbelt, McLean, St.
Charles, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Mountain Lake Park, Eldersburg,
Clinton, Glen Burnie, Strasburg, Elk Garden, Odenton, Woodstock,
Bethesda, Prince Frederick, Centreville, Camp Springs, California,
Germantown, Rockville, Hagerstown, North Beach, Fort Ashby, Falls
Church, Severn, Ellicott City, Annandale, Cockeysville,
Gaithersburg, Headsville, Shepherdstown, Cumberland, Herndon,
Annapolis, Keyser, Martinsburg, Westminster, Antioch, Dunkirk,
Moorefield, Reisterstown, New Market, Severna Park, Berryville,
Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Manassas,
Reston, Baltimore, New Creek, Woodbridge, Romney, Lisbon, and Oakland
253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC...Maryland...Virginia and
  West Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of
  Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and
  Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and
  Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick
  MD, Garrett, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest
  Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and
  Washington. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Northern Fauquier,
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Shenandoah, Warren and
  Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant,
  Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western
  Grant and Western Mineral.

* From Noon EDT today through this evening

* A cold front will drop southward into the area today. This front
  will become the focus for slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon
  and evening. Because of the slow motion and ample moisture in the
  atmosphere, storms may drop 2 to 4 inches of rain a short period
  of time, resulting in flash flooding.

* Heavy rainfall in a short amount of time can result in rapid rises
  of water in streams, creeks, and urban areas.
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Discussion-

...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
A broad and slow moving mid/upper level trough will result in
scattered to widespread convection today from the Ohio Valley into
the Mid Atlantic. The environment will be conducive for very heavy
rainfall rates. PWs are above the 90th percentile, and wet bulb
zero heights ranging from 12-14k AGL are pretty much as high as
you will see in early June over this region. Thus efficient warm
rain processes will likely dominate today/tonight. Instability is
likely a limiting factor for depth/intensity of cells...however
the aforementioned moisture parameters would still favor shallow
low topped cells capable of very heavy rain rates. The other
limiting factor is longevity of cells at any one location...as
cells should generally pulse up and down rather quickly. The weak
instability potentially restricting the coverage of heavier cells,
and the short lived nature of most cells, may prevent a more
widespread flash flood risk today/tonight. However slow cell
motions and heavy short duration rates will likely still be enough
to result in scattered flash flooding.

There is certainly some potential for a more widespread and
significant event today over portions of WV and VA given the
efficient environment in place. A backdoor front dropping
southwestward will be a convective focus today, potentially
helping sustain a corridor of cell mergers...as it interacts with
terrain induced cells and slow moving cells downstream of the
front. The event today/tonight has Moderate risk potential over
portions of WV/VA...but a bit too much uncertainty on the
coverage/magnitude of impacts to go with the upgrade at this
point. At the minimum we are expecting isolated to scattered flash
flooding today. At the worst we could be dealing with more
numerous flash flooding, some of which could be locally
significant.
We will continue to monitor trends through the day.

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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Overnight euro still gives us 2-3” before Saturday. I’m hoping...

When has the euro ever failed us?  Oh thats right.  Multiple times this past winter.  Congrats Short Pump

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6 hours ago, coolio said:

I was on the outer loop of the beltway coming from Potomac exit (cabin john?) to NoVA last night around 10 or 11. Caught a good cell. Pouring. Saw a lot of cars pulled over on the beltway with flashers on. Crossed over the Am. Legion bridge, nary a drop in NoVA.

Haven’t seen a drop this week.

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Haven’t seen a drop this week.

Yeah, big dissapointment here so far for Delaware in my area. Storms missed to the North and to the East. 

Almost as hard to get some decent rain here  as it is to get snow during the winter. 

 

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