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June, 2021 Discussion

Typhoon Tip

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From Upton's Facebook. Looks like Newark hit 103 as they commented after the post. 

Preliminary high temps today:

☀️Central Park: 98 (hottest temp since 2013)
☀️JFK: 91
☀️LaGuardia: 100R
☀️Islip: 89
☀️Newark: 102R (ties all-time June record)
☀️Bridgeport: 96R

R=Record high tied or broken

Relief (and rain) is on the way!

Newark has bumped up to 103° in the last several hours,  making today the hottest June day in recorded history for the city.

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Well no question we’re setting a precedence for the summer. 

This is the third ridge event between 90 and 60 W that pushed seasonal-relative norms,  seemingly recurrent on an ~ 8 to 10 day return rate ... each one impacting more - 

I think the aggregate ( and it goes back into May, and in fact I recall two ridge episodes back whence now I think about it the first one really didn’t deliver us any heat ) is telling more so than any one of them alone. 

There are signs that eastern ridging could returned 10+ July.  

Each one of the ridges above also was counterbalanced by negative anomaly Synoptics that ranged a week between 0 and -2 with nadir to -5 or even -7 diurnal means. 

Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability about the above sequencing at a seasonal scale open at least the front side of the summer. More so than that there are hints in the Tele connectors… July is in trouble for positive anomalies

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Due to the unusual climate change induced jet stream configuration currently in place, everywhere from Seattle to Canada to eastern mass is seeing temps soar to the triple digits. In my opinion, the extreme warmth off the northwest pacific is the culprit here. This warm pool allowed the pacific jet to strengthen to levels never seen before, flooding the entire country with hot pacific air. The heat wave we just had? This is only the beginning, according to the models there are signs that warm air is going to start rebuilding by the 2nd week of July. Since this current have happened in June, the next one will be deeper into the summer, and the pacific jet is forecasted to be even stronger. I doubt today will be the last time Boston breaks 100 this year, in my opinion temps will soar to 105-110 in the Boston area during the July 13-23rd timeframe, and it will be climate change induced. Many areas in Washington and Oregon broke all time record temps by 8-10 degrees and it isn’t even mid summer yet. This suggests that the rate of acceleration of global warming has drastically increased. I hate heat, and hope that we don’t see 100 again any time soon, but unfortunately that’s what the long range guidance is telling me right now. I strongly believe that this anomalous weather pattern we are currently in will set the stage for a winter that will smash records. Whether it’s record warmth, snow, cold, or lack of snow, I’m not sure yet. Right now I am leaning mild, due to what we are seeing so far this summer from the jet stream, but things can change very quickly.

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Final 4 days of June had highs 86/92/87/87.  Last time I had as many as 4 consecutive days with avg highs 88 or warmer was August 2002, with an 8-day run avg 88.8 (but dews then were 60-65 instead of 68-72 like this past spell.)  Certainly hope it was summer's hottest run, though in 2002 we hit 87/93/92 on 9/8-10.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 6/20/2021 at 10:17 AM, weatherwiz said:

I don’t really have much knowledge of this but what Scott says makes sense. @OceanStWx wound probably have the best input. 


On 6/20/2021 at 8:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

I’m not a NWS met, but I’m sure some citizens may help out with witness accounts and directing them when they do these surveys. I’m sure some building engineers and inspectors join too. 

Generally speaking it's a team from the local NWS office. If it was a widespread tornado outbreak a neighboring office will sometimes dispatch mets to help out. If it is a really localized event and the local EM is weather savvy sometimes they will do a quick survey and log damage points and take pictures, but that's a rarity.

Now when you have an EF3 or higher, especially violent tornadoes, structural engineers will come in an take a look at the damage to determine whether structures were probably built to withstand certain wind speeds. I think this is fallout from La Plata where the initial rating was EF5 because of house slabs wiped clean, but it turns out they were not anchored to the foundation and just slid off (think house gone but trees and flagpoles still standing).

In places like Oklahoma it is probably more common to have researchers and structural engineers tag along for most surveys just because there is an abundance of them there. Researchers and engineers, not tornadoes.

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