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June 2021


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Some clearing now working east into the area now near WNJ.  6/6 - 6/11 hazy hot and humid the likes we havent seen in early June in 10 years.    6/11 - 6/14 cool down and then ridge looks to rebuild into the EC.  As BW alluded to the peak of the heat goes north of the area but 850 temps >16C on a NW flow should get the area its first heatwave (even the park if it can dry out) between Saturday and Wednesday.  Think we are talking 90 / low 90s and maybe some mid 90s max.  Guidance dies look to build in more heat in the longer range so riding the overall warmer to hot theme this June seems like a good bet.

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As of 2 pm, the temperature at Minot, ND had reached 102°. That is the earliest 100° reading on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 7, 1988 when the mercury topped out at 101°. Today's temperature also ties the June monthly record of 102°, which was set on June 20, 1988.

A piece of that air mass will impact the region starting tomorrow through Wednesday.

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 2 pm, the temperature at Minot, ND had reached 102°. That is the earliest 100° reading on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 7, 1988 when the mercury topped out at 101°. Today's temperature also ties the June monthly record of 102°, which was set on June 20, 1988.

A piece of that air mass will impact the region starting tomorrow through Wednesday.

awesome, the Dust Bowl era is back

 

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Looks like NYC gets their storms today. Considerably more surface CAPE compared to yesterday at around 1500-2000 j/kg hudson river west and around 500-1000 j/kg east of the hudson.

Less shear but still enough for some iso damg gusts. Nice complex of storms to our west should maintain its way through long island. 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

About half the years in which Bismarck experienced extreme heat during the May 15-June 15 period went on to see one or more intense heatwaves in the Middle Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

100 degrees now hopefully much more likely for coastal areas in July.  I see this summer is being compared to the Dust Bowl era because of drought and extreme heat combo.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

100 degrees now hopefully much more likely for coastal areas in July.  I see this summer is being compared to the Dust Bowl era because of drought and extreme heat combo.

 

Too much rain now for our area. Will make it more difficult to hit 100F unless things really dry out rest of June. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too much rain now for our area. Will make it more difficult to hit 100F unless things really dry out rest of June. 

I'm thinking once the solstice happens things will dry out nicely for the rest of June and most of July, with getting into a wetter pattern again in August with tropical activity.  We just need a two week stretch of dry weather and I think we'll get that.  Similar to 2011.  Remember that was one of our wettest years but we still topped 100 in late July.  (Happened in 1983 too.)

 

 

 

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   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms will continue shifting eastward
   across the Delaware Valley and southeastern Pennsylvania into New
   Jerse and the New York City area this afternoon.  Locally
   strong/gusty winds are expected.  A WW may be considered.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar Loop shows a area of thunderstorms moving
   slowly eastward across eastern Pennsylvania and into northwestern
   New Jersey at this time.  A few stronger storms have evolved --
   aided by 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE as boundary-layer
   heating occurs beneath cool air aloft/steep lapse rates in
   conjunction with the vort max/short-wave trough crossing the central
   Appalachians.  While lower tropospheric flow remains rather weak,
   moderate westerly mid-level flow is sufficient to support
   multicell-type organization, and thus potential for gusty winds
   capable of minor damage -- primarily limited to tree damage.

   As storms continue shifting eastward, they will begin affecting
   western fringes of the New York City metro area in the next 1 to 2
   hours.

mcd0848.gif

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That line has embedded rotations and a new warning has been issued for NE NJ which has a TOR possible attached to it

SPC has also issued a severe thunderstorm watch for NYC metro

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Delaware
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Far Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will move east-southeastward toward New
   Jersey and southern New York including the New York City vicinity,
   with the strongest storms capable of wind damage and marginally
   severe hail.
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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

100 degrees now hopefully much more likely for coastal areas in July.  I see this summer is being compared to the Dust Bowl era because of drought and extreme heat combo.

 

LGA, JFK, and EWR are probably more likely to see such temperatures than Central Park.

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53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is being compared to the Dust Bowl era with the drought in the Great Plains and the extreme heat.  Thoughts?

 

That was further South and multi year. It also had the whole improper plowing farm issue. Not saying this doesn’t intensify into something to rival that, but it’s apples  and oranges now and more overhype 

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Nice storm going on here. The rain is as heavy as yesterday, but today there's a lot more lightning. Some very close strikes here. Also some wind gusts around 30mph. Interesting that the the severe threat was supposed to be higher yesterday, but it's turning out that today's storms are stronger.

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