uncle W Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I don't mind the heat as long as there is a few days of relief like the last two days...but I expect alot more heat in the next few weeks...hopfully there will be some cool days between heat waves... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The 0z run came in even hotter. It now has +20c temps at 850 mb starting on Monday around our area. The 594+ dm heights are near record levels for late June. So the 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights could support highs in the upper 90s to around 100 for the usual warm spots. Yikes…. Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Portland OR. gets to 115 before month is over! Even the EURO agrees. Just noticed that yesterday it predicted 122....... ?! Issue: Why is the GFS not sentenced to death? Start this model's programming all over. NWS in Portland (162.55) predicts 103-108 for greater Portland. >>>>https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/28781 Highest ever in Portland, OR is 107. Highest low T is given as 74. Ridges link up over Canada near end of month and sign a "HEAT WARRANT" for the US??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 California weather one last day before we head to a Florida-like pattern tomorrow. The season of Western Atlantic Ridge is coming. ECM / GFS have a very warm S/SW flow through their runs and what should see pieces of the western heat factory merge east in the later part of the runs. It looks to transition warm to humid Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds and storms some 90s starting Saturday (6/26). Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1) low to mid 90s 850 temps surging to >18c Tue (6/29) / Wed (6/30). With such a humid flow storms can popup each day. Way beyond the pattern looks to remain warm to hot into early July including the 4th of July weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yikes…. Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58° Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77° Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94° Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yikes…. Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. Maybe in August but not in June The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15 to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the 70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58° Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77° Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94° Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85° I think we looking at mid 90s next week perhaps 97 or so at EWR. We'll see how it trends but could be some clouds and storms fairly routinely. Mean while back at the ranch - just a truly nice day today 75 and sunny at 1:20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Maybe in August but not in June The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15 to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the 70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday yeah water temps are still mostly under 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Maybe in August but not in June The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15 to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the 70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday On the immediate shore yes, but the strong southerly flow will help the water warm up faster (offshore hot winds actually cause upwelling and cooler water). If the highs are 92-94 a little bit away from the water as shown on that map, that would lead to over 100 heat indexes with the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 39 minutes ago, jm1220 said: On the immediate shore yes, but the strong southerly flow will help the water warm up faster (offshore hot winds actually cause upwelling and cooler water). If the highs are 92-94 a little bit away from the water as shown on that map, that would lead to over 100 heat indexes with the humidity. good point on the onshore flow bringing in warmer water. Many a year at the NJ shore with west winds, cold water and bay side green flies invading! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 That coney island guy would like it- a cool/damp 7/4 which he's been rooting for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That coney island guy would like it- a cool/damp 7/4 which he's been rooting for.... Weenies crying for their mommas? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It would match our big weather swings pattern if we go from a 594+dm heat dome next week to a cutoff in early July. Imagine another weather disaster for the July 4th weekend. Still very far out but it wouldn't surprise me if this verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Well werent those same models calling for an ark this weekend..3-5 inches of rain..how will that turn out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 it's one op run at day 10. i think the west atlantic ridge keeps the trough far enough west for a humid pattern with storms 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 look how the upcoming near record ridge looked a few days ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: That coney island guy would like it- a cool/damp 7/4 which he's been rooting for.... That’s not cool and damp lol. That would be 84/75 type stuff with tons of pm storms on east /humid side and war pumping to the east. Granted that will verify west of apps, but that’s not cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Hey Guys! I love the heat. Look what's coming: FOOLED YA !!!!!! I am going to speak to someone from Portland this evening. Find out if their EMS crews are planning to scrape any bodies off the sidewalks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 52 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Hey Guys! I love the heat. Look what's coming: FOOLED YA !!!!!! I am going to speak to someone from Portland this evening. Find out if their EMS crews are planning to scrape any bodies off the sidewalks. i rather take that heat for a week or two then months in a typical nyc summer.. 65 on july 10 that is beautiful summer weather.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat warmer. This coming weekend will turn much warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave will develop starting tomorrow. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. The extreme heat will extend into parts of Canada, including British Columbia. Records for select cities: Portland: June 26: 102°, 2006 June 28: 98°, 2000 June 29: 100°, 2008 June record: 102° All-time record: 107° Seattle: June 26: 90°, 2006 June 27: 92°, 2015 June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June record: 96° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 26: 100°, 1925 June 27: 102°, 2015 June 28: 105°, 2015 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 79% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +14.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.548 today. On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.206 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.876 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Finally, nighttime low temperatures will also be rather warm during the peak of the heat--especially Sunday night: Urban heat islands will only slowly cool down through the 80s and bottom out in the 70s so that will be a little rough. Have your fans and damp towels at the ready if you don`t have air conditioning and take care of yourself and check on your elderly neighbors--we just aren`t used to this in Western Washington. That said, we are very lucky we don`t have high humidity that so much of the rest of the country deals with back east every summer, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 11 hours ago, qg_omega said: Maybe in August but not in June The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15 to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the 70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday Immediate coast is the beach. 3-5 miles inland it will be in the 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 The last 6 days of June are averaging 82degs.(72/92), or +7.0. Month to date is 72.6[+1.4]. June should end at 74.5[+2.5]. 65*(81%RH) here at 6am, overcast. Reached 76* around 5pm. Portland up to 120 for Mon....... But down 10 degrees on the July Fourth WE outburst to the 100's again. Still rainless for 10 days more. Better not make the same mistake Chicago made in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Morning thoughts... Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2° A much warmer weekend lies ahead. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Throwing out some high temp numbers for my location beginning on Sunday thru next Thursday and see where I land. Sunday 6/27: 92 Monday 6/28: 94 Tuesday 6/29: 97 Wednesday 6/30: 95 Thursday 7/1: 92 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Newark is in track for its 2nd top 10 warmest June in a row. The coming heatwave will boost the ranking to potentially top 5. Looks like Boston will make a run on the #1 spot. So a continuation of the warmest summer departures and rankings going to our north in recent years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2021 74.4 6 - 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 73.4 0 2 2021 72.8 6 3 1930 72.4 0 4 1994 71.9 0 5 1949 71.6 0 6 1957 71.3 0 7 2001 71.1 0 - 1943 71.1 0 8 1999 71.0 0 9 1925 70.9 0 10 1983 70.7 0 - 1981 70.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 10 hours ago, nycwinter said: Finally, nighttime low temperatures will also be rather warm during the peak of the heat--especially Sunday night: Urban heat islands will only slowly cool down through the 80s and bottom out in the 70s so that will be a little rough. Have your fans and damp towels at the ready if you don`t have air conditioning and take care of yourself and check on your elderly neighbors--we just aren`t used to this in Western Washington. That said, we are very lucky we don`t have high humidity that so much of the rest of the country deals with back east every summer, Portland to open cooling centers today, 24/7 https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/06/portland-area-cooling-centers-open-24-hours-a-day-starting-friday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 48.7 last night. 3 nights in a row of 40s. Might not see that again for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Transitioned from a Southern California style weather to a Florida like one has begun with much more humid flow developing today. Western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the area Sat (6/26) - early July with the highest heat/humidity looking like Mon (6/28) Thu (7/1). Storms likely popup routinely each day, similar to Florida, but the heat is on. Mid / upper 90s in the hotter spots. Beyond there split with the ECM and GFS in the W Atlantic Ridge shifting east in the 7/2 - 7/5 period. GFS maintains strong ridge with trough. and subsequent front much further west into the Ohio valley/ GL. ECM has the W Atlantic ridge moving east and torugh closing off and passing through the area 7/2 - 7/5. Beyond there it looks to return to a warmer to hot flow. Right now a compromise between the GFS and ECM may be best with the ridge holding the trough back towards PA/OH. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Current temp 82/DP 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now