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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Stop with the NAVGEM...it absolutely BLOWS!  You might as well look at the CRAS (but it’s been discontinued, and for a reason, just like the NAVGEM should be) for God sakes. And we’re 7-8 days out. Please Grow up George. 

I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything. 

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5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything. 

Lol! Ok George.  You’ll wise up eventually.  Carry on. 

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0z GFS says in my hood after Wednesday we don't see another 40°F reading until the following Wednesday, with most days not getting above freezing.  Too bad there is zero QPF.  Back to cold and dry January scenario.  Of course we will warm to the 50's thereafter with some QPF. 

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

0z GFS says in my hood after Wednesday we don't see another 40°F reading until the following Wednesday, with most days not getting above freezing.  Too bad there is zero QPF.  Back to cold and dry January scenario.  Of course we will warm to the 50's thereafter with some QPF. 

Why look and frustrate yourself? Just assume it's over and hope to be pleasantly suprised. 

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Birds are much more prevalent and noticeable now.

The ones who have been around have also changed their song. Very noticeable the last two weeks.  They know.  
 

Also, we saw a small insect crawling around on the snow when we were walking the dog yesterday.   It was below freezing and snowing but this bug was doing it’s thing

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26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Birds are much more prevalent and noticeable now.

 

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The ones who have been around have also changed their song. Very noticeable the last two weeks.  

Same up here. It was quite abrupt. One day I was outside and there was much more bird chatter and the songs had changed. Im glad you guys mentioned something. The NNE thread, they are still posting about deep deep winter. Yes, it's still winter in NNE, but the changes are noticeable.

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Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs.  Using 8 inches as pack  2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005  and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106,  1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since  1976.

Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks.  Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs.  Using 8 inches as pack  2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005  and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106,  1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since  1976.

Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks.  Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948

Do you have a nice chart for CON in 07-08? I know they went Dec thru Apr with 12”+. What about 24”+? I think they peaked at 45” in March. Seems high considering I peaked at 43”.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs.  Using 8 inches as pack  2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005  and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106,  1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since  1976.

Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks.  Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948

I had to look at the Hingham numbers which is right near the water. 57 days in 2015 for 12”+.  

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you have a nice chart for CON in 07-08? I know they went Dec thru Apr with 12”+. What about 24”+? I think they peaked at 45” in March. Seems high considering I peaked at 43”.

115 days above 12" that year, 57! above 24". 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

chart (7).jpeg

chart (8).jpeg

 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

115 days above 12" that year, 57! above 24". 

Yeah it was pretty insane. Thanks guys. Wish I could find a way into my old crashed HDD to get my old data. FML for not backing it up. 

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

Yeah it was pretty insane. Thanks guys. Wish I could find a way into my old crashed HDD to get my old data. FML for not backing it up. 

Crazy stat and I didn't realize what a good year 87 was Sunapee had 61 days above 40 inches. I need to go back and look at 87. It seems to have left my memory.  I remember the Jan storms but that is it

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Since it’s not over until March wraps up I will grade by quarters. Dec B plus. Jan F Feb A - March TBD

Yeah deep winter is over but snow chances probably aren’t. Another warning criteria storm could change the grade for many. 

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