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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because I didn’t have that. But it looks warm after the first week of Morch.

Warm and wet is fine. Let's give that a try because the "pattern" since the beginning of Feb has been shit.

Can I just get one coherent, semi-potent low pressure system to pass to my south and toss 0.5" of liquid equivalent up here? Just one?

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I frankly have seen nothing that offers any specific focus of improved chances in the overnight.  Basically still what we were looking at over the bevy of guidance yesterday.

Although the CPC telecon tended warmer in the AO. 

The GGEM collapsed back to longer term velocity/progression look - not sure why I spend much time with this model as I do.. Only because it's bandied about by NCP ... AFDs and in here and I'm "sheepling" it. Maybe someone has some nsight as to its usefulness.  But, it opened that phantom ( we suspected its falsity - ) trough and favors its extended toward lifting out winter. It sends everyone E of the Divide by S of the border through a Chinook processor and solid spring temp spread by D10...

The Euro lags that by perhaps a day, but ultimately ends up there by reasonable error/~  half day...clearly extrapolating just beyond the end of that run toward a +8 F afternoon bath for the same area as a general theme.. 

The GFS has done what it always does between March and July ...every 5th cycle:  instead of morphing the pattern steadily toward spring and beyond, ..it merely takes the average January 20th map and scales up in heights and thickness.  oh god - we have to deal with that piece of shit antic all summer with V16 now too, don't we.

In general the models look to me like they are being physically modified by two sensitivities:

- lingering gradient richness and the same battle of extended amplitude failing to hold into nearer term progressivity/velocity gauntlet ... that is routinely wnning and damping those robust systems into pedestrian normalcy or less..

- seasonal curvature shortening/ .. flow relaxation is trying to kick in ...in the heels of that, so a bit of transition bug. I noticed this three days ago, and it's been getting more prevalent  The 00z Euro's extended again picks up on this and the GGEM (ugh) now shows it too; the entire Canadian shield cold reserve is rather abruptly modified by a goodly amount in the sub 700 mb troposphere ...pretty much everywhere S of 60 N.. The deep -30 plumes are no longer loading off a flat -EPO quasi arc over the NE Pacific ( that was kind of unnoticed by the way...) over the last couple of weeks.  cold relaxes..gradient relaxes... flow slows and buckles... that may open the the door for La Nina and HC to engulf the hemisphere * just a guess.  Our entire scope of the hemisphere can flip in a hurry. 

I do think/suggest that through D7 .. 9 ... there is a pinch low potential, perhaps even one more R-wave integrated.  And though the 2nd bullet above ... keep in mind, that is not intended as any instantaneous distinction. It may take a week or so after D9 ... gee, like March does sometimes.  There can be bowling balls .. However, as that transition occurs, the R-wave anchored low chances drop "precipitously" beyond D9... and that leaves the rarer bowling ball climo dependency ...

Anyway,  summary:  feels like the same sort of "maybe-ism" we saw during yesterday, for D6-9, was put on display overnight - so... maybe for storm/winter enthusiast, it's not taking away.  I was hoping the CPC PNA coverage might show that bulge edging into positive SD... but if anything it went south by a quarter point. Still there though..  EPS notwithstanding... it trend more robust with western heights, but less with the down stream trough D7-8 .. negotiable

Someone else mentioned 1997 April.. I almost get the feeling that although there is nothing specific that remotely resembles that at this time... this "feels" like the type of spring that would deliver back-to-back 67 F afternoons, with a 33 F blue bomb ... then 66 two days later.   But that's just my mood at this moment.. blah blah...

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Warm and wet is fine. Let's give that a try because the "pattern" since the beginning of Feb has been shit.

Can I just get one coherent, semi-potent low pressure system to pass to my south and toss 0.5" of liquid equivalent up here? Just one?

I think it’s hilarious you have snow up to your taint and you’re still angry. :lol: 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I frankly have seen nothing that offers any specific focus of improved chances in the overnight.  Basically still what we were looking at over the bevy of guidance yesterday. Although the CPC telecon tended warmer in the AO. 

The GGEM collapsed back to longer term velocity/progression look - not sure why I spend much time with this model as I do.. Only because it's bandied about by NCP ... AFDs and in here and I'm "sheepling" it. Maybe someone has some nsight as to its usefulness.  But, it opened that phantom ( we suspected its falsity - ) trough and favors its extended toward lifting out winter. It sends everyone E of the Divide by S of the border through a Chinook processor and solid spring temp spread by D10...

The Euro lags that by perhaps a day, but ultimately ends up there by reasonable error/~  half day...clearly extrapolating just beyond the end of that run toward a +8 F afternoon bath for the same area as a general theme.. 

The GFS has done what it always does between March and July ...every 5th cycle:  instead of morphing the pattern steadily toward spring and beyond, ..it merely takes the average January 20th map and scales up in heights and thickness.  oh god - we have to deal with that piece of shit antic all summer with V16 now too, don't we.

In general the models look to me like they are being physically modified by two sensitivities:

- lingering gradient richness and the same battle of extended amplitude failing to hold into nearer term progressivity/velocity gauntlet ... that is routinely wnning and damping those robust systems into pedestrian normalcy or less..

- seasonal curvature shortening/ .. flow relaxation is trying to kick in ...in the heels of that, so a bit of transition bug. I noticed this three days ago, and it's been getting more prevalent  The 00z Euro's extended again picks up on this and the GGEM (ugh) now shows it too; the entire Canadian shield cold reserve is rather abruptly modified by a goodly amount in the sub 700 mb troposphere ...pretty much everywhere S of 60 N.. The deep -30 plumes are no longer loading off a flat -EPO quasi arc over the NE Pacific ( that was kind of unnoticed by the way...) over the last couple of weeks.  With out that, ...?  In La Nina and HC ...  Our entire scope of the hemisphere can flip in a hurry. 

I do think/suggest that through D7 .. 9 ... there is a pinch low potential, perhaps even one more R-wave integrated.  And though the 2nd bullet above ... keep in mind, that is not intended as any instantaneous distinction. It may take a week or so after D9 ... gee, like March does sometimes.  There can be bowling balls .. R-wave anchored low chance, however, appear to drop "precipitously" beyond D9... and that leaves the rarer bowling ball climo ... Someone else mentioned 1997 April.. I almost get the feeling that although there is nothing specific that remotely resembles that at this time... this "feels" like the type of spring that would deliver back-to-back 67 F afternoons, with a 33 F blue bomb ... then 66 two days later.   But that's just my mood at this moment.. blah blah...

Anyway,  summary:  feels like the same sort of "maybe-ism" we say during yesterday, for D6-9, was put on display overnight - so... maybe for storm/winter enthusiast, it's not taking away.

Things look awful. It’s looks cold (for time of year)and storm less 

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's gonna be a big one.

MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant. 

Agree

We should really watch this carefully. Should be the last storm of the season for many. 

The trolls will give this post weenies but its all good.

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20210227_101027.jpg

20210227_101040.jpg

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s hilarious you have snow up to your taint and you’re still angry. :lol: 

I am just jonesing for a 4-6" storm. Retention is great. 1" of upslope fluff every other day is fun too. But it is still nice to get a winter storm warning with a real radar depiction once in a while. That's my gripe right now. That seems really hard to come by here over the past 30 days.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys are using the MJO way too much to determine storm outcome. 

Seriously. We’ve had plenty of MJO treks into phase 8/1 produce nothing. :lol:

There’s an outside chance at something D7-8 but a lot needs to go right. 

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