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wdrag

March 2021

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

29 here in Brooklyn 

 

Very windy

 

I live on the 6th floor and my window is shaking

Wind keeps waking me up. Rattling my windows. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/48), or about -3.0 to -4 0.

All models have a Trace of Snow coming up.   GFS goes AN about the 21st. and wants to stay there for the rest of the month.       (45/61) from 3/21-3/30.

25*(35%RH) here at 6am.      24* at 7am.     ( was 32* at midnight)      28* by Noon.       30* at 1pm.      32* at 2pm.         37* by 4pm.      40* by 5:30pm.       36* by 9pm.

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Morning thoughts...

In 1990, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. This time around, it will feel more like mid-February than mid-March.

At 7 am EDT, temperatures included: Albany: 12°; Allentown: 22°; Binghamton: 12°; Boston: 17°; Bridgeport: 21°; Danbury: 20°; Islip: 22°; New York City: 24°; Newark: 25°; Philadelphia: 28°; Poughkeepsie: 20°; Providence: 18°; and, White Plains: 20°. These will likely be the coldest temperatures the region will see until late next fall.

Despite strong sunshine, temperatures will top out only in the upper 30s and the lower 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 42°

Philadelphia: 43°

Clouds will increase tonight. It will be mostly cloudy and continued cold tomorrow. A period of light snow could impact the region. Overall, the March 16-19 period remains a period of opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region. A pronounced warming trend could commence during the weekend.

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Looks like a week of cool, raw weather and then full-on spring weather will coincide with astronomical spring. 

Bottomed out at 24F this morning. Could match that this evening before the clouds roll in tonight. 

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6th March at Newark with a 50° or greater temperature drop within 4 days.

 

3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....24°........-51°

3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59°

3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54°

3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61°

3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56°

3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°

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8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So,  let's briefly review 3/20 as the end of snow risk NYC?  I don't see anything favorable til 3/27 and even then very-very low chance. Actually looks quite warm to me the last week of March. After that?  any sign it can back below normal in early April?   Thanks,  Walt

This week looks like the last chance of any snow for the area.

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24 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So,  let's briefly review 3/20 as the end of snow risk NYC?  I don't see anything favorable til 3/27 and even then very-very low chance. Actually looks quite warm to me the last week of March. After that?  any sign it can back below normal in early April?   Thanks,  Walt

I would say late week is our last chance at seeing any snow until November.

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50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This week looks like the last chance of any snow for the area.

Yep. I’m seeing talk of a coastal early next week, real big problem though....all the cold is long gone. If one does actually develop, it’s all rain

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

bottomed out around 18 here.  Frigid with wind blowing this AM.  Would do mid Jan proud

Yup. Straight up nasty outside this morning. The sun really didn’t help at all. A kick in the butt after last week’s gorgeous weather.

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So,  let's briefly review 3/20 as the end of snow risk NYC?  I don't see anything favorable til 3/27 and even then very-very low chance. Actually looks quite warm to me the last week of March. After that?  any sign it can back below normal in early April?   Thanks,  Walt

I'll take a wild guess...March 29th last 1"...April 10th last gasp...

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First NYC dewpoint below -10 this late in March in a while.

 

Central Park   SUNNY     29 -11  17 VRB5G23   
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Pretty impressive set of records for Cheyenne. NYC had its record all-time snowstorm in January 2016. October 2011 featured the biggest October snowstorm. So it’s quite a feat to pull this of in the same season. 
 

Upon further review, the 2-day snow observation of 30.8" fell 1.1" short of the 2 day record of 31.9" set in 1949. However, we did break the 1 day record for snowfall at Cheyenne with 22.7"

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive set of records for Cheyenne. NYC had its record all-time snowstorm in January 2016. October 2011 featured the biggest October snowstorm. So it’s quite a feat to pull this of in the same season. 
 

Upon further review, the 2-day snow observation of 30.8" fell 1.1" short of the 2 day record of 31.9" set in 1949. However, we did break the 1 day record for snowfall at Cheyenne with 22.7"

 

 

 

image.png.1371caa577e5d8c53515421c0c57004c.png

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

Probably our last chance for some snow this season as spring tries to make a push next week.

 

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The March 1-15 period saw New York City come out with a mean temperature of 40.7°. That was 0.7° above normal. The second half of March will likely be warmer relative to normal.

A weak system will approach the region overnight and then move across the region tomorrow. As a result, it will become increasingly cloudy tonight. Tomorrow will likely see a period of light snow or flurries, especially during the afternoon into the evening. Any accumulations will likely be minor, as the temperature will likely be well above freezing during much or all of the event. Some areas outside of New York City and Newark could pick up a slushy coating.

Following the system, Wednesday will likely see a return to sunshine and milder conditions. Nevertheless, the remainder of the March 16-19 period could still offer some opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region.

The coming weekend could mark the start of a new warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance now favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

Wednesday could see greatly elevated CAPE in an area extending from eastern Texas across the Gulf States. As a result, there will likely be a high probability of severe thunderstorms with hail and possible tornados in parts of that area, especially in the Gulf States. That risk of severe weather will then likely move into the Carolinas on Thursday and then offshore afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -1.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.710 today.

On March 14 the MJO data was unavailable.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (1.0° above normal).

 

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Day 2 Moderate Risk will be needed at this point across the south. All models today are steadily inching closer to a potentially significant event. This is a nasty sounding.

1615834137071.png

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On 3/14/2021 at 4:50 PM, Rjay said:

Gotten sleet near 50 before but never snow. It was definitely snow lol.  

lol thats awesome, I wonder what the record is for the highest temp at which snow has been seen falling?

and also the highest temp at which snow has been known to accumulate

I remember hearing that ACY had snow showers in the low 50s back in March 2010 I think it was?

 

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On 3/14/2021 at 11:54 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Cheyenne has seen 22.2” snow today. The 22.2” daily snowfall beats the old daily record of 19.8”, which was set on November 20, 1979. The 30.3” storm total surpasses the 25.6” that fell during November 19-21, 1979 to become Cheyenne’s biggest snowstorm on record.

ended up being a three footer at Cheyenne and over 27" at Denver their 4th largest on record.

Interesting that Denver's biggest March snowstorm was in March 2003, when they had over 30"....that also came at the tail end of a big drought like this one did, and we had a snowstorm in April a few weeks later after a pretty dry March (which came after a great February)...think we can do it again?

2002-03  Dec (above average snow), Jan (below average snow) Feb (much above average snow) Mar (below average snow) 

2020-21 Dec (above average snow), Jan (below average snow), Feb (much above average snow), Mar (below average snow)

Granted 2002-03 was much better than this season and one of the elite winters we've had. (graded as A+)

 

 

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3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

A thread. From one of SPC's lead forecasters, no less. Conclusion: significant outbreak is growing ever more probable.

 

I do not ever wish to experience a tornado but I feel for those who this will affect

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