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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Almost looks like the triad and most of central NC is getting dryslotted!  Ugh!!  These models are so bad right now.

Absolutely horrible. It’s insane how they can be so far off .... we may as well just go back to checking barometric pressure and guessing off a telegram sent from DC 

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16 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Absolutely horrible. It’s insane how they can be so far off .... we may as well just go back to checking barometric pressure and guessing off a telegram sent from DC 

All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well...

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So if the models are horrid due to the lack of aviation data inputs, why arw they seemingly always forecasting the higher impact solutions first?  Seems like the clown maps have been on steroids this year only to come up, not only short, but in some cases empty.  If lack of data is the issue you would think we would bust the other way sometimes too.  Or are model biases being exposed by lack of data?  I'm so far above my pay grade here, but would love to know more.

For once I think the TV mets have an easy job.  Just take the historical avg and roll with it.  Because more often than not that seems to be the solution.  We expected generational, historical, biblical.......we got a glaze.

Should have put this in the whining thread, sorry.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well...

I trust you Burrell, but I'll be darned if I can recall even one mention of a dryslot on this event.  The QPF forecast was solid.  Only the NAM even hinted late in the game that the QPF may be lighter than expected.  If I missed it I'm sorry.  This is so frustrating to see so many people plan for the absolute worst over and over again for next to nothing.  Because next time we know they wont prepare.

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Just over a glaze so far here on the west side of Winston, measured 0.06”. The grass even has some accural. Temp 31.3/30.4 and slowly rising from a low of 30.4 at 5am this morning. Light frz rain/mist at the moment with moderate returns filling in from the west.

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

I trust you Burrell, but I'll be darned if I can recall even one mention of a dryslot on this event.  The QPF forecast was solid.  Only the NAM even hinted late in the game that the QPF may be lighter than expected.  If I missed it I'm sorry.  This is so frustrating to see so many people plan for the absolute worst over and over again for next to nothing.  Because next time we know they wont prepare.

I have an office job with Duke energy and only occasionally get called in for storm duty, but I’ve been on call since 5pm yesterday and know we brought crews up from Florida for this event. Over preparation beats being surprised, but yea, could be a lot of wasted man hours and time on this one 

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18 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Horrible bust for DC/Baltimore area, which is getting pelted with sleet and freezing rain instead of predicted inches of snow. 

Yep. Upstream shows that mid levels were indeed even warmer than expected. However, temps at the surface have not been the issue. If anything, we (Raleigh) are running a bit below what the models had for us. We’ve been fluctuating between 31.4-31.6 here for a while and have a solid glaze. I think if more precip was involved this would have verified. Funny we were all worried about temps busting but looks like it was precip 

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Definitely a glaze now, but no danger of any significant ice accumulations. Temp has risen to 32.0. This thing is over here. Another WSW that proves to be a nothing-burger. The best winter weather we have had was the unwarned 2.5-inch surprise snowstorm we had in the middle of the night back in January. Go figure.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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