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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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RGEM wants to build a second batch of precip into the area Friday morning and showing possible rain/snow mix swinging through Sat morning.

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53 minutes ago, Ernest T Bass said:

So far this year, freezing rain really hasn't materialized along the I40 corridor southwest of the Triad.  I'm a little skeptical because of that, but sure looks like  Statesville to Hickory to back toward the foothills and mountains might be in trouble this time.   Hoping for sleet...

I agree, @Ernest T Bass.  Nothing has materialized to any degree here in the Hickory area, despite the multiple possibilities of freezing rain.  But, this one feels different somehow...

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I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking?

Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist.

TW

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7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking?

Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist.

TW

If it happens, it would likely be in the morning package.

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking?

Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist.

TW

Sitting here in Northern Randolph wondering the same. I will say the last ice event this past weekend we just got a light glaze. No two events are alike, however Climatology says there’s generally a tight cutoff just south and east of the I-85 corridor on events like these.  I suspect that Davidson and Randolph will be placed under a warning if data holds/keeps trending over night. 

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I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts.  I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning.

TW

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GFS up to .62 accrual for RDU now. RGEM is at roughly 1 inch. NAM up to .2. cut those #'s in half and blend them and you still get warning criteria ice.

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7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking?

Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist.

They’ve seemed a step behind other offices pretty often lately.  Their forecast discussions and maps don’t seem as updated as frequently.

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If this was a situation where the models were converging on a 0.25-0.35 accrual ice storrm, then it wouldn't be so bad.  But, most models have the amounts going MUCH higher.  

TW

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Just now, tarheelwx said:

I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts.  I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning.

TW

Well it’s RAH after all, they have always played it conservative, and It has a served them well more times than not.   

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RAH has gone all in. WWA looks like it’s for .1” and the WSW is for .25-.5”.

edit: Blacksburg changed the watches to warnings as well with .5-.75” of ice

 

9A78B9A6-6AD1-470D-B5C9-04C8BFCE5C38.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Winter Storm Warnings have been posted up this way for 1-3" of Snow/Sleet & 0.50-.75" of ZR... kinda surprised we aren't under an ICE Storm Warning 

Because of the 1-3" of snow before the ice

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Just now, yoda said:

Because of the 1-3" of snow before the ice

Well here where I live in Burke county this warning is for all ICE. Anywhere from 0.25 to 0.40 with locally higher amounts close 0.50. So I really don’t why we are under a WSW instead of a ICE storm warning. Unless all the offices just wanted simpler messaging.

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1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Well here where I live in Burke county this warning is for all ICE. Anywhere from 0.25 to 0.40 with locally higher amounts close 0.50. So I really don’t why we are under a WSW instead of a ICE storm warning. Unless all the offices just wanted simpler messaging.

Good question.  Usually a WSW is issued when there is a chance of sleet/snow or accumulations of those before the ice.  As you state in your post, your warning is just for ice, which would suggest ISW would be better.  Perhaps a met could weigh in and explain better?

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Good question.  Usually a WSW is issued when there is a chance of sleet/snow or accumulations of those before the ice.  As you state in your post, your warning is just for ice, which would suggest ISW would be better.  Perhaps a met could weigh in and explain better?

NVM was reading there discussion  the day shifts of all 3 offices GSP,RAH and Blacksburg will be the ones to decide who gets Switched over to a Ice Storm Warning later today.

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