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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


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I will be interested to see how the sleet/zr transition zone resides. This is the battle of a few biases here- 

1. Often models under-do the cold dome, and sleet ends up being more prominent than freezing rain.

2. I don't think these models are equipped with the thermodynamic capabilities of tracking the temperature of individual rain drops as they trek through a 10C warm nose. Will models be able to accurately get a grip on how deep the cold dome will need to be for drops to reform into sleet? Or could warmer drops hinder the ability to refreeze into sleet? 

Models are consistently flummoxed when phase changes get involved to the extent they are here.

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Just now, ILMRoss said:

I will be interested to see how the sleet/zr transition zone resides. This is the battle of a few biases here- 

1. Often models under-do the cold dome, and sleet ends up being more prominent than freezing rain.

2. I don't think these models are equipped with the thermodynamic capabilities of tracking the temperature of individual rain drops as they trek through a 10C warm nose. Will models be able to accurately get a grip on how deep the cold dome will need to be for drops to reform into sleet? Or could warmer drops hinder the ability to refreeze into sleet? 

Models are consistently flummoxed when phase changes get involved to the extent they are here.

I do recall during PDII in the Western Burbs of CLT that we were expecting as bad or worse of an ice storm as 12/2002. The cold dome was way underdone and we ended up with a ton of sleet. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately 

Thanks all for responses..  I suppose whenever RAH issues a W S WATCH more than 24 hours before an event, they are taking it seriously.  Was down in Durham today, not a word...meanwhile, Person County up near Roxboro already looks like a war zone.  Looks like Durhamites are in for a surprise/shock.  PS what is criteria for an Ice Storm Warning?  .25?

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45 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Can a met in here explain why we are seeing so much warmth aloft when the low is practically in the gulf?

Look above.  The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft.  The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm.  Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours.

Feb-16-NAM-2.png

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6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Here's a trend loop for a blend of models over the past couple days of model cycles near peak storm

trend-nbm-2021021700-f036.sfct.us_state_nc_va.gif

Impressive in that Hickory goes from 35 to 31 and Charlotte from 40 to 34. Believe the trend is still materializing and we haven’t yet reached the final outcome. 

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Just now, griteater said:

Look above.  The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft.  The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm.  Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours.

Feb-16-NAM-2.png

 Been waiting to hear your thoughts 

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Brad P. now saying 0.20-0.30  for Valdese Hickory Marion etc. But he did say to me on twitter he feels like he may have to adjust totals south again towards 0.30-0.40 which is just north of  us on his forecast map. Saying those areas(I just said) should be prepared for a few days without power. 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Look above.  The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft.  The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm.  Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours.

Feb-16-NAM-2.png

Like it.....warmer rain drops, less accretion.  Heavier precip, less accretion.  I can see an inch of QPF netting .25 ZR and sparing a lot of folks the severe damage.

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4 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Brad P. now saying 0.20-0.30  for Valdese Hickory Marion etc. But he did say to me on twitter he feels like he may have to adjust totals south again towards 0.30-0.40 which is just north of  us on his forecast map. Saying those areas(I just said) should be prepared for a few days without power. 

He is ringing the alarm bells for those areas for sure. It’s sort of scary with all that cold air just to the west. 

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1 minute ago, Avdave said:

The NAM always overdoes QPF or it used to back in the day, I never take it for verbatim and thats a good rule to go with

When it got redone a couple years back it helped that “somewhat” though still take it with a grain of salt. But it’s not like the NAM is an outlier at this point.

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

When it got redone a couple years back it helped that “somewhat” though still take it with a grain of salt. But it’s not like the NAM is an outlier at this point.

Thanks.  I wasnt saying the NAM was an outlier at any point.  Just was concerned about how some people were taking the NAM for exactly what it is worth and could be disappointed 

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26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Some of the short range suite NAM ice totals 

zr_acc.us_ma (16).png

zr_acc.us_ma (15).png

zr_acc.us_ma (14).png

Brad P is actually sounding pretty Concerned..... used to I’d disregard, but he’s become insanely Conservative over last 5yrs or so, so if he’s starting to sound worried I’d start preparing. He said in his latest Video that Its concerning More Cold Air is starting To leak over the mountains than expected tonight 

 

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RDPS is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi.

trend-rdps-2021021700-f060.zr_acc.us_ma.gif

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7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Brad P is actually sounding pretty Concerned..... used to I’d disregard, but he’s become insanely Conservative over last 5yrs or so, so if he’s starting to sound worried I’d start preparing. He said in his latest Video that Its concerning More Cold Air is starting To leak over the mountains than expected tonight 

 

Same, I'm getting a hotel room just in case. 

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4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RDPS is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi.

trend-rdps-2021021700-f060.zr_acc.us_ma.gif

I don’t wanna be that guy.....but the trajectory of that heaviest axis is starting to look awfully similar 

CE373A0A-8706-495A-9EC7-5F948CE6684A.png

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7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RGEM is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi.

 

The trend is in part due to the shift of the heaviest axis of precip eastward. The model has stayed rock solid with temps, aside from adjustments to the periphery and this run did push the freezing line further south, with all of wake county getting in on the action

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As others have mentioned, Brad P's latest video was definitely eye opening...  And his in-house future cast is showing more ice for more of NC than other models I've seen.  
Mike Maze for WRAL did a video earlier too but he just mentioned the chance of something and more details later.  Their future cast wasn't as robust. 

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