HornetsHomer91 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: One thing I really love to see, unlike other storms where we’ve been completely borderline going into, is temp has dropped to 27 and dew is down to 16 here. Great indicator for the upcoming system. 33/22 here Mooresville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I will be interested to see how the sleet/zr transition zone resides. This is the battle of a few biases here- 1. Often models under-do the cold dome, and sleet ends up being more prominent than freezing rain. 2. I don't think these models are equipped with the thermodynamic capabilities of tracking the temperature of individual rain drops as they trek through a 10C warm nose. Will models be able to accurately get a grip on how deep the cold dome will need to be for drops to reform into sleet? Or could warmer drops hinder the ability to refreeze into sleet? Models are consistently flummoxed when phase changes get involved to the extent they are here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ILMRoss said: I will be interested to see how the sleet/zr transition zone resides. This is the battle of a few biases here- 1. Often models under-do the cold dome, and sleet ends up being more prominent than freezing rain. 2. I don't think these models are equipped with the thermodynamic capabilities of tracking the temperature of individual rain drops as they trek through a 10C warm nose. Will models be able to accurately get a grip on how deep the cold dome will need to be for drops to reform into sleet? Or could warmer drops hinder the ability to refreeze into sleet? Models are consistently flummoxed when phase changes get involved to the extent they are here. I do recall during PDII in the Western Burbs of CLT that we were expecting as bad or worse of an ice storm as 12/2002. The cold dome was way underdone and we ended up with a ton of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: WPC Freezing rain accum map Wait. What? .10" causes power outages, right? .75 to 1.5" would be....bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Berlin1926 said: Wait. What? .10" causes power outages, right? .75 to 1.5" would be....bad? I think power outages start at .25 usually. .50 is termed as crippling. The totals were seeing modeled haven’t been seen in almost twenty years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Berlin1926 said: Wait. What? .10" causes power outages, right? .75 to 1.5" would be....bad? Usually as ou approach .25 or greater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Some of the short range suite NAM ice totals 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: Wait. What? .10" causes power outages, right? .75 to 1.5" would be....bad? This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here's a trend loop for a blend of models over the past couple days of model cycles near peak storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 So far this year, freezing rain really hasn't materialized along the I40 corridor southwest of the Triad. I'm a little skeptical because of that, but sure looks like Statesville to Hickory to back toward the foothills and mountains might be in trouble this time. Hoping for sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately Thanks all for responses.. I suppose whenever RAH issues a W S WATCH more than 24 hours before an event, they are taking it seriously. Was down in Durham today, not a word...meanwhile, Person County up near Roxboro already looks like a war zone. Looks like Durhamites are in for a surprise/shock. PS what is criteria for an Ice Storm Warning? .25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Can a met in here explain why we are seeing so much warmth aloft when the low is practically in the gulf? Look above. The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft. The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm. Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Here's a trend loop for a blend of models over the past couple days of model cycles near peak storm Impressive in that Hickory goes from 35 to 31 and Charlotte from 40 to 34. Believe the trend is still materializing and we haven’t yet reached the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Purple Rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Look above. The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft. The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm. Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours. Been waiting to hear your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Brad P. now saying 0.20-0.30 for Valdese Hickory Marion etc. But he did say to me on twitter he feels like he may have to adjust totals south again towards 0.30-0.40 which is just north of us on his forecast map. Saying those areas(I just said) should be prepared for a few days without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Look above. The combination of the 850mb low on the MS/AL border and the 850mb high off the SE coast are funneling in warm air aloft. The winds shown here in the 850mb low level jet across east Bama to NW SC (higher than 50 knots) are higher than we normally see in a winter storm. Also, the pre-storm air mass is only marginally cold aloft....so, the strong winds aloft are bringing in the warm air, but it also means that the precip moving in with this jet will likely be moderate to heavy in nature for a few hours. Like it.....warmer rain drops, less accretion. Heavier precip, less accretion. I can see an inch of QPF netting .25 ZR and sparing a lot of folks the severe damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Here is the thoughts of Scotty Powell with the foothills weather network They do a good job in our area. . Thanks @strongwxnc. Appeciate the the insight. Looks on the lines of what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The NAM always overdoes QPF or it used to back in the day, I never take it for verbatim and thats a good rule to go with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Brad P. now saying 0.20-0.30 for Valdese Hickory Marion etc. But he did say to me on twitter he feels like he may have to adjust totals south again towards 0.30-0.40 which is just north of us on his forecast map. Saying those areas(I just said) should be prepared for a few days without power. He is ringing the alarm bells for those areas for sure. It’s sort of scary with all that cold air just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Avdave said: The NAM always overdoes QPF or it used to back in the day, I never take it for verbatim and thats a good rule to go with When it got redone a couple years back it helped that “somewhat” though still take it with a grain of salt. But it’s not like the NAM is an outlier at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: When it got redone a couple years back it helped that “somewhat” though still take it with a grain of salt. But it’s not like the NAM is an outlier at this point. Thanks. I wasnt saying the NAM was an outlier at any point. Just was concerned about how some people were taking the NAM for exactly what it is worth and could be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Some of the short range suite NAM ice totals Brad P is actually sounding pretty Concerned..... used to I’d disregard, but he’s become insanely Conservative over last 5yrs or so, so if he’s starting to sound worried I’d start preparing. He said in his latest Video that Its concerning More Cold Air is starting To leak over the mountains than expected tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RDPS is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Brad P is actually sounding pretty Concerned..... used to I’d disregard, but he’s become insanely Conservative over last 5yrs or so, so if he’s starting to sound worried I’d start preparing. He said in his latest Video that Its concerning More Cold Air is starting To leak over the mountains than expected tonight Same, I'm getting a hotel room just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RDPS is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi. I don’t wanna be that guy.....but the trajectory of that heaviest axis is starting to look awfully similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Icon came in with a pretty serious minimum over the western piedmont and foothills. Not saying it is right, but many areas would be less than 0.50" qpf if it verified. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RGEM is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi. The trend is in part due to the shift of the heaviest axis of precip eastward. The model has stayed rock solid with temps, aside from adjustments to the periphery and this run did push the freezing line further south, with all of wake county getting in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here’s hoping that the I-85 snow border, applies to Ice. I don’t need this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 As others have mentioned, Brad P's latest video was definitely eye opening... And his in-house future cast is showing more ice for more of NC than other models I've seen. Mike Maze for WRAL did a video earlier too but he just mentioned the chance of something and more details later. Their future cast wasn't as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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