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mappy

February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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5 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Serious question from a novice and my apologies in advance for my ignorance. 
I see what the models are projecting, and get there will be low dews and can calculate a wet bulb.  Yet, with temps on Saturday around 50 during the day, clouding up during the evening, and the inability in the immediate metro to cool down even to forcasted lows most nights (supposed to be 35 last night and never dropped below 40, and even last Friday night during the “very cold” stretch barely  ducked under 25,) how will this ever be cold enough to support accumulating snow?  I have seen dynaimc heavy snow accumulate at 34-35. I get it. But how can we be sure it won’t be just cloudy at 42 heading into the event in the immediate metro? Is just robust dynamic cooling? Again, sorry if this a stupid question. 

Where are you located in DC? I got down to 36.7 last night in NW, you didn’t get below 40. Luckily, it’s early Feb so we are in prime climo for these types of events. I would be far more worried about what you are referring to of this event was in March. Most of the models indicate heavy precipitation with cold air aloft creating an ideal situation for dynamic cooling. Most models show temps of 31-33 during the heavy snow.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

i highly doubt that the lower eastern shore will see a foot of snow out of this. but okay. 

Yeah nobody’s getting a foot. But up to 5-6” I guess is possible in the heaviest precip locations where it’s still cold enough. 

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

snow depth is probably the better one to use. 

nam3km_asnowd_neus_61.png

The snow depth map could be right, but in general I have found that product to be pretty atrocious with verification. 

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Just now, chris21 said:

The snow depth map could be right, but in general I have found that product to be pretty atrocious with verification. 

then feel free to hug the weenie snow maps :) 

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It certainly seems possible for a stripe of 6-10 looking at the individuals in the GFS there are some pretty big hitters in there. 

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5 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Where are you located in DC? I got down to 36.7 last night in NW, you didn’t get below 40. Luckily, it’s early Feb so we are in prime climo for these types of events. I would be far more worried about what you are referring to of this event was in March. Most of the models indicate heavy precipitation with cold air aloft creating an ideal situation for dynamic cooling. Most models show temps of 31-33 during the heavy snow.

On call last night at the VA ( North Capitol and Michigan.)  I guess I’m just worried the models bust on temps. Hope they are correct. Will be a great event if they are right! 

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11 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Serious question from a novice and my apologies in advance for my ignorance. 
I see what the models are projecting, and get there will be low dews and can calculate a wet bulb.  Yet, with temps on Saturday around 50 during the day, clouding up during the evening, and the inability in the immediate metro to cool down even to forcasted lows most nights (supposed to be 35 last night and never dropped below 40, and even last Friday night during the “very cold” stretch barely  ducked under 25,) how will this ever be cold enough to support accumulating snow?  I have seen dynaimc heavy snow accumulate at 34-35. I get it. But how can we be sure it won’t be just cloudy at 42 heading into the event in the immediate metro? Is just robust dynamic cooling? Again, sorry if this a stupid question. 

You kinda answered your own question, we will wet bulb down, but the real answer is to look upstairs, look at the surface temp at DCA in this sounding from DCA, looks to be below 32 at  anything above 1000mb.  Heavy rates and you get a beat down, light rates and it’s snow/rain or rain.   Your concerns are all valid though, we have seen many a marginal situations bust, and a few boom.  Learn to read soundings and skew-t charts, will be super helpful! 

 
image.thumb.png.7edf94f808c37ac06fb007d93e8cacfa.png

 

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13 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

IDK if this is the case.. the red taggers are talking about "saturated dendritic growth layers" and getting everyone excited.. this could be an over performer when it comes to ratios.. 

What's the canadian say?  It seemed to have a lot of dendritic growth for last weekend's storm...

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

i highly doubt that the lower eastern shore will see a foot of snow out of this. but okay. 

Thats our Snow Mappy.. you know how these things trend in the last 48 ;)

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10 minutes ago, Negnao said:

6z Eps > 3 inch probability image.png.83b10c3af6232eb3ad5f4076dfafd47c.png

  

oh shit.. thats legit.. none of the events this year looked that good inside of 48 hours.. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

If those areas are prime, my yard should be. I usually do better than those areas in marginal temp events because I am further E/NE and away from any moderating influences from the bay.

What do you figure the liquid/snow ratios will be? Even if there is good lift through the DGZ, the lower level temps are super marginal, so I would think maybe 7:1?

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

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Not trying to make a entire discussion about the SREF but using SPC maps it's further NW and appears wetter for sure

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

woot woot!

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2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Not trying to make a entire discussion about the SREF but using SPC maps it's further NW and appears wetter for sure

People dog on the SREF's all the time, but if you don't pay attention to the ridiculous members (which is pretty obvious when you look at the charts), it's pretty accurate and gives you a great idea of what to expect. It did a really nice job with our last storm at least for my area.

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

NSFW wording in this post.  I do hope CAPE jackpots too.

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42 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Serious question from a novice and my apologies in advance for my ignorance. 
I see what the models are projecting, and get there will be low dews and can calculate a wet bulb.  Yet, with temps on Saturday around 50 during the day, clouding up during the evening, and the inability in the immediate metro to cool down even to forcasted lows most nights (supposed to be 35 last night and never dropped below 40, and even last Friday night during the “very cold” stretch barely  ducked under 25,) how will this ever be cold enough to support accumulating snow?  I have seen dynaimc heavy snow accumulate at 34-35. I get it. But how can we be sure it won’t be just cloudy at 42 heading into the event in the immediate metro? Is just robust dynamic cooling? Again, sorry if this a stupid question. 

I remember calling NWS when I was 15 the day before the Feb '87 storm and asking the same question. It was in the upper 40s a few hours prior to the snow starting.

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why are you showing 10:1?

Why not? A very legit meteorologist just explained 1 page back why this very well could be 8-10:1 ratios... and maybe along the Maryland coast ratios will be lower, but they could easily be 10:1 out this way. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s gonna come north. Prepare yourself accordingly. :P

but the nam 

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Why not? A very legit meteorologist just explained 1 page back why this very well could be 8-10:1 ratios... and maybe along the Maryland coast ratios will be lower, but they could easily be 10:1 out this way. 

I only focus on northern MD and we're easily 10:1 if not 12:1 or better.

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24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

Keep talkin' dirty. I like it.

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

I only focus on northern MD and we're easily 10:1 if not 12:1 or better.

Well the easy answer is...because that's the only fuggen choice for map selection.   

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4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Well the easy answer is...because that's the only fuggen choice for map selection.   

Or, you use the snow map as just another tool to forecast. ratios depend on temperature, where the dg zone is etc. snow maps shouldn't be used as a standalone thing to make forecasts. :) 

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