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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


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7:00 MT. ARLINGTON

Storm total snowfall is 23".

Drifts near 4' pretty much all around the house now.

Can't even make it from garage out to backyard anymore.

Just too deep to walk.

Snow depth is now 21" as difficult to measure with drifting and some compaction going on.

Picked up 1.5" last 2 hours.  That is certain as driveway was plowed right after measurement 2 hours ago and

now has 1.5" new snow.

Still moderate snow under persistent band.

 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, I miss the old radar so much. The new NWS radar site is horrendous. Sometimes I have to wait forever for it to load. Don't know why they had to change a good thing.

They had to get rid of the reliance on Flash.  It looks like they tried to add a lot of features.  Not the first project to be totally ruined by gold plating it :(  Project Management 101 fail!

 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Gravity wave bands SE of Long Island. This one's definitely legit. 

I’m legitimately thinking I have a shot to hit 3 feet here. It’ll depend what happens late tonight and Tom if we can add on like 2-3” after this band fades... it’ll be the most snow I’ve ever seen 

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2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

This Central Park stuff is such nonsense.  Simple task and it can't be performed correctly?????

What a joke.

They did okay, NBC made two incorrect tweets which confused everyone.  Central Park used to always report at 4 or 430 for the climate report in addition to at 7am, 1pm, 7pm, 12am.  I believe starting 2 winters ago they stopped reporting at midnight on some occasions and at 430 on all days for some reason

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The 3K Nam seemed to handle NYC/NJ well. Yesterday morning it was predicting some 30" maximums in Morris county and that's actually verifying. It went a little too high in South/Central NJ I believe.

Here's what it predicted for NYC yesterday morning:

Mon 7am: 7.1"
Mon 1pm: 14.5"
Mon 7pm: 18.6"
Tue 10am: 21.2"

Central park (Actual)

Mon 7am: 5.3"
Mon 1pm: 13.3"
Mon 7pm: 18.3" (16.3" apparently?)

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Odd how a lot of LI is colder than nyc. Somehow this always happens even in setups that you’d think would favor nyc 

Probably a combination of UHI and much of LI being farther north than Central Park.  Also sometimes with a cold high to the N or NE and the right wind direction, we might benefit from some colder air draining down the CT River valley.  Basically cold air damming.

If the mid level warming from the SE was more robust, or the boundary winds were more easterly,  NYC would likely have been a few degrees colder than LI.  Could still trend that way

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11 minutes ago, alexj7 said:

The 3K Nam seemed to handle NYC/NJ well. Yesterday morning it was predicting some 30" maximums in Morris county and that's actually verifying. It went a little too high in South/Central NJ I believe.

Here's what it predicted for NYC yesterday morning:

Mon 7am: 7.1"
Mon 1pm: 14.5"
Mon 7pm: 18.6"
Tue 10am: 21.2"

Central park (Actual)

Mon 7am: 5.3"
Mon 1pm: 13.3"
Mon 7pm: 18.3" (16.3" apparently?)

I think in the end the models will end a little too bullish east of the city (certainly not SW CT though, it really came together there). The dryslot came in fast again like Dec because of the less than ideal 700mb track. Even this morning they mostly had 16-20" here and although there's an outside chance over the next day we make it to the low end of this but 13-14" is probably what I have. Still a great event regardless. 

I think there was a GFS v16 run yesterday that showed the distribution particularly well with the huge max over E PA, S NY and NJ where the 700 low would allow the best pivot which looks like it'll verify very well. 

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16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

This Central Park stuff is such nonsense.  Simple task and it can't be performed correctly?????

What a joke.

THEY HAD ONE JOB.

In all seriousness, I scratched my head ay 18.3. I had just spent an hour out in Riverside and you wouldn't have convinced me we had more than 15-16".

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