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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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12 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

globals were pretty bad; mesos were pretty good.  according to gfs, we should be pouring rain right now and approaching 40 degrees.  what a terrible model.

Yeah not for one moment did I think we’d touch 40. Didn’t even think we’d rain. I might be right in the end we’ll see. 

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Just now, haudidoody said:

Try that here and you'll get banned.

Although it's historically the best approach to forecasting. 95% historical experience and probabilities, 5% guidance

Thats true I heard old timers say that in weather all the time. but the new crop of meteorologists will use %90 of models and they live and die by it. If a model shows ots they hug it. if a model shows up the coast oh its to early to know if it still goes ots. if a model calls for 1-3 they hug it if a model shows 12-18 inchs they are like hold your horses.

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Just now, Ruin said:

accuweather and intilicast. Yeah i wasnt sure how good or bad those radars are when they do future radar's

 

Problem is there's no such thing as future radar. That's a model that takes its initial state and runs out some amount of time. Maybe some "future radars" pull their data from actual weather models, but many do NOT. In either case, if you want to use a model, use a real model. Many sites have simulated radar for NAM and other hi-res products. 

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Just under 3 inches. I mean, I liked it, love snow always, but I love it most when it is falling heavy and visibility is down. 
It's been snowing for 18 hours and we have 3 inches?
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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

accuweather and intilicast. Yeah i wasnt sure how good or bad those radars are when they do future radar's

 

You’ll learn over time what you can use and what’s just a garbage tool meant for entertainment. Have to read between the lines. 

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27 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

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36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest trends look promising for Baltimore on north especially...for a few inches through Tues 

Guidance is coming in more tucked and south with the coastal low 

Forcing is going north...where the closed upper level tracks...north of it is where the forcing occurs 

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For just barely northeast of Baltimore City my expectations from this storm from a few days ago werr 2-5 inches from Sunday. Got 3.5, so good to go there. 

I did say 3-7 for the coastal impact. Feel like I might be able to scrape the low end of that range, but confidence is low. Some model guidance is keeping the hope alive. 

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