Hoosier

January 30-February 1 Winter Storm Part 2

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GEFS
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Noteworthy uptick in the mean QPF. Have been looking at 00z soundings from TX and vicinity and the moisture quality is legit. Also on mid level w/v can see our burgeoning synoptic system has a deep layer feed from the Pacific from southwest of the Baja. So we're getting Pacific and Gulf moisture involved.

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Guess what dethroned 3/9/1999 on the CIPS list?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/1/2015

Obviously the nature of the blocking is not going to allow for the snow to get as far north.

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Think there's going to be some discussions between KIND and KIWX on whether to upgrade to warnings or or issue advisories with the northern tier and southern tier respectively during the overnight AFD's.  I can see points either way.  I know the overlords to the NW never pay attention to us ;) lol but I'm serious, this area from about 20 miles N of I70 to about 70 miles N of I70 in eastern IL, Central IN and West Central Ohio has got to be a nightmare for forecasters.  It can more often than not be like nowcast central.  It's not like I80.  You bust the forecast here its the difference of 6 or 8 inches or 0 with ice or nothing. There's no cushion up or down for the most part, no well they said 8 I only got 2.  

I'm going for 8 with a better than 2-1 chance of busting low with a high of 10.  IWX's call I think's good, Kokomowx's call is probably sweating less than I am.  Placing all my bets on dynamic cooling and the fact forecast temps have been 2-4 degrees higher than observed for over the last month.  Cards all in on this one with no arctic air, I must be nuts lol.

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I have absolute confidence that we're gonna do good around here, but damn do I feel bad for Eastern Iowa. And miss me with that "they already got theirs" bs; way I see it, the more of us cash in, the merrier

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The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose.

850th.us_mw.png

The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.

850th.us_mw.png

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18 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose.

850th.us_mw.png

The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.

850th.us_mw.png

Yeah, never underestimate the warm tongue of death. Interesting they are letting the WSW ride, with 2-4 accumulation wording instead of rolling to an advisory. 

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Accounting for the above described feature we're bringing mixing into our west and southwest 1/4 to 1/3, which will eat into snow totals some there. East of wherever mixing makes it looks all systems go. 00z EPS 6+ probs actually beefed up for the LOT CWA.

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47 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

KIND pulled the trigger on warnings for it's northern tier.

I'm a little surprised there are warnings all the way to the Indy area.

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Seeming more and more likely that this warm nose is going to be a major issue even further north and west. Hi res models before were at least showing a few hours of rippage here between 9pm and 12am but now looks like I may never changeover with initial band and may have to wait for any potential wrap around as the low pulls east. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Seeming more and more likely that this warm nose is going to be a major issue even further north and west. Hi res models before were at least showing a few hours of rippage here between 9pm and 12am but now looks like I may never changeover with initial band and may have to wait for any potential wrap around as the low pulls east. 

I think Chicago will mix at onset

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4 hours ago, Gino27 said:

So much boom and bust potential here with the unpredictability of the warm tongue. I feel for the NWS.

I expect the warm tongue of death here. The models always underdo the warm air push.

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I think Chicago will mix at onset

Most everywhere will with marginal temps to start but you will changeover relatively quickly and will be ripping for hours. You're sitting pretty for this one.

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I doubt it mixes. Chicago looks pretty good for a 9-11 inch event. Farther east, things are developing, including the NAM hinting the coastal low is going to hug the coast now, helping throw back moisture west of the Apps. That N/W trend late in the game is a concern due to the longevity of the trough and the fact the Coastal low is now in the zone of that trend.

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I think Chicago will mix at onset

Unless you mean the usual mix seen when saturation is first occurring, we’re not going to see a legitimate mix this far NE.


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I'm a bit bummed. My NWS forecast has 3-7.  Seems a bit low. SREF plumes for Gary are pointing to almost 10". The NAM versions are on the lower end of the spectrum.  

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