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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, fyrfyter said:

Too much Whiskey. Must be clouding his thoughts. There’s no way SW OH sees that big of a difference over a few counties. This isn’t one of those types of events. 

Well we'll see. I'm going by nearly every model. Also the post with it clearly says because of tighter gradients, some areas could see a couple inches more or less in those tighter areas.

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26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Indy:

A few interesting observations at 15Z...temperatures throughout the
mid Mississippi Valley and into western Illinois are generally
running a few degrees lower than the bulk of the CAMs had progged
for mid morning. This supports the concern many mets shared over the
last 24 hours or so that overall model guidance was attempting to
advect temperatures that were too warm too far north by late today.
Even now...the HRRR for example tries to bring temps near 40 up to
or just north of the I-70 corridor by 21Z which seemed far too
overzealous to begin with and in light of the current temp trends
looks that much more unrealistic.

Even the new 12z Euro is too warm in many areas.

The ramifications of this would be less "wasted" snow early on as it should be able to get down to/near freezing more quickly in areas that are above freezing.

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.f78f5e25b50f4929564ec6c0208ab258.png

il_sfc.gif.68473d11d299e09da5a747dcf79d32df.gif

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Even the new 12z Euro is too warm in many areas.
The ramifications of this would be less "wasted" snow early on as it should be able to get down to/near freezing more quickly in areas that are above freezing.
sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.f78f5e25b50f4929564ec6c0208ab258.png
il_sfc.gif.68473d11d299e09da5a747dcf79d32df.gif
Since I'm a weenie at heart like everyone on here, waited to see the 12z Euro. Had a feeling models were too warm today. Without a southerly component at the surface and in a retreating dry air mass it's hard to warm much with overcast skies. I think highest I went in the CWA today was 36 degrees, maybe a few spots of 37 far southeast. Tried to do the best I could with hourly temp trends to account for evaporative and dynamic cooling at precip onset. Aside from the areas that'll have mixing issues for a bit, looks all systems go.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

17z HRRR just parks and rots it over IKK. It’s like the I-80 wall, but in reverse. :lol:

"They" say these things like to drift north at the last minute.

Seriously, hope it's not as dramatic as what the HRRR, etc are depicting.  The way it hits a wall to that extreme does seem a little fishy but maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

"They" say these things like to drift north at the last minute.

Seriously, hope it's not as dramatic as what the HRRR, etc are depicting.  The way it hits a wall to that extreme does seem a little fishy but maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

They. :lol: But yeah, I know the drill. Not my first storm, lol. Hopefully a lot of people do well. :D

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My call as of the moment is 2-4 for the Cincinnati area. I don't buy above that because only a couple models have tracked in that direction, but I also don't buy that this will be a dusting of snow because of the way the temperatures are running colder.

But I have got to move north again one day. I miss western Illinois snowstorms. At least 6-8 inches is fun and we'd get 20 inch weenie runs sometimes to be excited about.

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Man cutoff will definitely be insanely close to me along I74. Models are wavering on whether I cash in or not. Obviously impossible to nail exact location and timing of the rain snow line when it's highly dependent on dynamic cooling. Temps were 35-36 here but have now dropped to 33 with light rain. If it weren't for that warm nose aloft would probably get wet snow soon. But hoping maybe we're running cooler and can changeover quicker but not holding my breath. 

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