whoosh

NWS explains it all ..... you can tell them this truth, and take the heat off you.

which with all appreciation and gratitude I as a close NWS/LOT watcher, was yesterday delighted to see the office publish a Story tab about this event, and noted that it was removed today. .... though checking at this moment before posting I see that it has returned. Short of that lapse, LOT has had excellent messaging about this. Thank you all. At the same time, I have close friends who just don't monitor weather at all; they just deal with whatever happens; it gives them stories to tell.

There has already been messaging. Hoisting has a specific protocol.

I'll take this opportunity to aver how much I appreciated this voice in the community. It was sad to see him drop out. A quick search for him just now, long after his departure, reveals that the domain has expired (and been grabbed by a domain grabber). I know he was controversial; but I learned quite a lot from him, and still miss him. (hence the search).

They have been.

As a lower Lake Michigan denizen, looking at the winds and waters the next couple of days, wondering if others are thinking or talking about the seiche potential. @RCNYILWX here .... Skilling elsewhere .... others? I documented and rough analyzed some seiche data from 2004 <https://tgeo.com/seiche_4521/> .... of course the public data sites have changed since then. Here's what monitoring potential I have for now: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/lmhofs/lmhofs.html https://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ wind/waves only (double click for forecast point) https://www.weather.gov/lot/marine https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/

That's nice! .... Down here in the band it's way breezier than it looks up there.

Yeah. Since snowpack and cold temps are mutually reinforcing, the next several weeks will be yearning for sunshine.

Worked out fine up here in N.Cook I've been shoveling every couple hours. Drier than I was anticipating/(fearing?). Windy. No viable measurements available. Forecast details aren't as important as the well presented lead-time "heads-up" messaging which also well stated the uncertainties.

To the discussion on radar sites, I get a lot of mileage out of https://www.aviationweather.gov/gfa , COD and MRMS already mentioned; also weathernerds.org for site based. And of course wX on Android (for the Mosaic, set AWC images in the UI settings)

Very appreciative of all your contributions, Rick, here and from the office. I'll be resting the day in prep for some long hours shoveling the wet stuff until I exhaust the beer and energy supplies, targeting midnight. It's been a few years since I've partied this hard. Drier event would be welcome tradeoff for higher totals. Will monitor obs for trends.

Mail Abuse Prevention System (MAPS) was one of the first organizations to provide anti-spam support by maintaining a DNSBL. They provided five blocklists, categorizing why an address or an IP black is listed. MAPS was acquired by Trend Micro, Inc. in June 2005.

Surface (above; filtered >15mph) -- 850 & 500 Crossover (below; SPC)

filtered for temps >=33 ...... sounds & sights of melting here

filtered for windspeeds >=20 (mph) EDD w/AirMass

Following Ricky's tip on temp trends ...

Love this! .... from Izzi ...

Monday ... evening rush ... that truck stop on I-80

? Possible that LOT took down their start time graphic because this thing is moving in quicker than it advertised. ?

Thanks for doing and sharing the research and analysis. I have a question about snowcover .... How does the quantity of snowcover matter, given the cases of >=3" ? I've only come up with two most important impacts of any snowcover. One is for providing a cold surface of less friction for cold air masses to move over on their way south; depth of cover wouldn't matter at all. The other is as an insulator/reflector of radiant heat; of this I'm more uncertain on the impact of snowcover depth, but I'm not groking any significant difference between 3" and 9".

I am illiterate in the mathematics of fluid dynamics, but don't confuse the 500mb shortwave with the lower level clipper.

and a short while later, as that northern polar piece bears down (tricky timing) the 700mb temp/wind panel: still working the turn.

So here's an *ugly* 500mb depiction from 06z GFS with 200mb winds presented to show the turn to SE around the ridge (over the Rockies)