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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a running joke Will and I, have. We remember those 90s jazz themes around 93-94 on to the late 90s as we were watching radar every 10 minutes during some of these great winters like 93-94. 

Oh ok..thanks for explaining.  I remember 93-94 very well.  Was a record breaker here. Until two years later....

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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...I noticed that both GGEM and GFS pushed through an impulse earlier than previous runs for 2/11. There’s several impulses along that arctic boundary...def a bit ‘94-esque. 

That's exactly what occurred to me this morning, that repetition of light/mod events ..each smearing in the fast shear but maintaining enough identity to trigger potentials. 

The thing is .. that baroclinic axis ..roughly along 39 N from Denver to NJ ... is excessively rich across the bevy of guidance, ens...means etc.. You know this, but any time there is a wall of thickness packing, with easterly low level balanced wind... it's a baroclinic time-bomb.  Even these very subtle difficult to find perturbations in the flow trigger these Tuesday type "critters" and that's really what 1994 post NY that winter was - just spraying critters up along a thickness packed powder-keg. 

All the while .. there have been/ are interesting EPS and GEF teleconnector suggestions for something bigger from the 11th through the 15th.  The operational runs - frankly - are frustrating as of late because they just refuse to take the bate.  I'm not sure why ...even the operational Euro is failing to do so - that model?  Beyond D6?  Given least excuse imagined to curve the flow ...it will do so!  Having a -1 to +1 SD PNA mode change that begins later this week and wends its way to that the positive state ( EPS and GEFs), whilst the AO actually goes even lower ( -5/-6!!) .. should have been a memo for that model to go crazy - but it's like almost no reflection of a +PNA --> +PNAP response beyond the base line climate structure ... It's frustrating -

Maybe the operational models will win ... I'm not seeing the GFS as taking advantage either ( nor the GGEM..) - this is all an ensemble mean(s) derivative - uuuusually when this sort of contention takes place, one or the other wins - either the weight of the ensemble begins to convince the operational to come out and play ( lol ), or ...the higher resolution/more dependable pedigree blend does and we see the lesser resolve ensemble members start to fall in line the other way. 

Tough call which way it'll break - good luck.  But, seeing as the erstwhile -AO is established empirically, and the SSW stuff appears to be hitting the annular mode pretty hard over the next 10 days, that seems it should be a momentum red flag or nod at least as being big influencing force. And at some point.. that raw power of that kind of extremeness should cause the mid latitudes to curve around it - I think that sort of hints which direction this should break.

It's a fun time, because whether something more cohesive and coherent begins to materialize out of the 11th - 15th ( maybe 17th ... ) ether, it seems either way we are saddling the conus with that rich explosive baroclinic instability and tweener features to keep the entertainment going.

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41 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Of course not, please elucidate :)

We've seen it in the various modeling and have been onto the notion of weak impulses making use of the enhanced baroclinic axis ( not gonna re-type that sermon... )..

Erstwhile offering every 2 day perturbations bursting open light or light to moderate blooms / .. attendant weak low results through mid and end week.  All the while - not to re-iterate so soon .. there is an EPS and GEFs/ .. general hemispheric signal for much more. We had just not yet seen the operational runs bite down and really hone anything in that 11th - 15th ... 17th time span.

This run of the Euro is the first to take what I would consider to be a first step in adjusting larger synoptic features.  

00z vs 12z ... ( and I only bother to annotate this tedium because like I said, it seems to be the best 'first movement' )  Left is 168 hour ( 00z); right is 156 hour ( 12z ):

image.thumb.png.fc23b83d7cb470823cbdda0189da8e49.png

 

This run seems to hint pretty strongly at availing of the hemispheric signal for phasing - taking the fist step in modulating toward ... It's got some work to do.  In order for this to be more successful ( less negative interference ..), we would like the flow to slow down - I think that can be handled in subtle dose of increasing western ridge ( trade off...) "if" or when any would-be emerging western ridge amplitude emerges further -  ... which concomitantly, we need that to happen either way. 

As is, this run does vigorously engineer a cyclone that is vast more deep and representative of the general potential...It really only scratches the ginormity of the potential that will be inherent to the time span in question .. Yet still manages a 970 mb low escaping the EC... close!

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've seen it in the various modeling and have been onto the notion of weak impulses making use of enhanced baroclinic instability along the discussed axis ( not gonna re-type that sermon... )..

Erstwhile offering ever 2 day perturbations bursting open light or light to moderate blooms / .. attendant weak low results through mid and end week.  All the while - not to re-iterate so soon .. there is an EPS and GEFs/ .. general hemispheric signal for much more. We had just not yet seen the operational runs bite down and really hone anything in that 11th - 15th ... 17th time span.

This run of the Euro is the first to take what I would consider to be a large synoptic 'step' toward that direction.  

00z vs 12z ... ( and I only bother to annotate this tedium because like I said, it seems to be the best 'first movement' )  Left is 168 hour ( 00z); right is 156 hour ( 12z ):

image.thumb.png.fc23b83d7cb470823cbdda0189da8e49.png

 

This run seems to hint pretty strongly at availing of the hemispheric signal for phasing - taking the fist step in modulating toward ... It's got some work to do.  In order for this to be more successful ( less negative interference ..), we would like the flow to slow down a - I think that can be handled in subtle dose "if" or when any would-be emerging western ridge amplitude emerges further -  ... which concomitantly, we need that to happen either way. 

As is, this run does vigorously engineer a cyclone that is vast more deep and representative of the general potential...It really only scratches the ginormity of the potential that will be inherent to the time span in questoon .. Yet still manages a 970 mb low escaping the EC... close!

I swear, you would have made a great professor, I am an F'in idiot when it comes to understanding alot of what you say,I have to google alot of weather terms! I do like at the end of some of your quotes by saying "in summary" lol, then i catch on!

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6 minutes ago, 512high said:

I swear, you would have made a great professor, I am an F'in idiot when it comes to understanding alot of what you say,I have to google alot of weather terms! I do like at the end of some of your quotes by saying "in summary" lol, then i catch on!

He would be the professor trying to teach Physics 101 in a 400 person lecture hall where he stands way at the front of the room and fills 100 feet of whiteboard with equations and formulae you can’t make out from the back row while rapidly mumbling things you can’t possibly hope to hear. 

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We've seen it in the various modeling and have been onto the notion of weak impulses making use of the enhanced baroclinic axis ( not gonna re-type that sermon... )..
Erstwhile offering every 2 day perturbations bursting open light or light to moderate blooms / .. attendant weak low results through mid and end week.  All the while - not to re-iterate so soon .. there is an EPS and GEFs/ .. general hemispheric signal for much more. We had just not yet seen the operational runs bite down and really hone anything in that 11th - 15th ... 17th time span.
This run of the Euro is the first to take what I would consider to be a first step in adjusting larger synoptic features.  
00z vs 12z ... ( and I only bother to annotate this tedium because like I said, it seems to be the best 'first movement' )  Left is 168 hour ( 00z); right is 156 hour ( 12z ):
image.thumb.png.fc23b83d7cb470823cbdda0189da8e49.png
 
This run seems to hint pretty strongly at availing of the hemispheric signal for phasing - taking the fist step in modulating toward ... It's got some work to do.  In order for this to be more successful ( less negative interference ..), we would like the flow to slow down - I think that can be handled in subtle dose of increasing western ridge ( trade off...) "if" or when any would-be emerging western ridge amplitude emerges further -  ... which concomitantly, we need that to happen either way. 
As is, this run does vigorously engineer a cyclone that is vast more deep and representative of the general potential...It really only scratches the ginormity of the potential that will be inherent to the time span in question .. Yet still manages a 970 mb low escaping the EC... close!

It’s a great looking pattern through next weekend and looks ominous again for around the 17thish as well. Thanks as always for your thoughts


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And ...having seen now the D8 ... with that hyper bomb in the lower Maritime region being the result ( eventually...) imm downstream of that phasing .. it really wouldn't take much of a western ridge earlier steepening expression to get that closer to the EC...   Again, needs work - and I wouldn't bother mentioning it if there wasn't tele convergence going on -

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Just now, TheSnowman said:

Absolute Destruction.  Right in the middle of the death band now.  Reservoir Road, North Cumberland, RI  3” an hour I’ll guess, and I’ll officially check when I get back from this drive.  

F.

5 day ban.

No soup for you.

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