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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like a snowstorm coming. Clouds increasing and 35.

Birds hitting the feeders hard. Got a solid mix too.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like a snowstorm coming. Clouds increasing and 35.

Is the HP located at the southern tip of Hudson Bay, and is it strong enough?

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Birds hitting the feeders hard. Got a solid mix too.

snow birds, sleet birds and freezing rain birds?

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   Two notes:

    1)    Anyone showing a 10:1 map for event like this should have his/her account locked for a month.   B)       Sleet and snow are tallied together in the model output field used to make the 10:1 images, so they will automatically inflate when you have a mixed event.     Tropical Tidbits has the Ferrier method and the accumulated snow depth change, and Pivotal has the Kuchera.    Plausible and reasonable alternatives exist.

    2)     The 18z NAM nest is noticeably warmer with the 2m temps.    It gets the entire area above freezing Monday afternoon, and it barely gets below freezing anywhere (including the Shenandoah Valley) Monday night - not the recipe for a high impact ice storm.   The HRRR, though, still suggests a slightly bigger temperature drop for areas well north and west of the cities Monday night.

 

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22 minutes ago, high risk said:

   Two notes:

    1)    Anyone showing a 10:1 map for event like this should have his/her account locked for a month.   B)       Sleet and snow are tallied together in the model output field used to make the 10:1 images, so they will automatically inflate when you have a mixed event.     Tropical Tidbits has the Ferrier method and the accumulated snow depth change, and Pivotal has the Kuchera.    Plausible and reasonable alternatives exist.

    2)     The 18z NAM nest is noticeably warmer with the 2m temps.    It gets the entire area above freezing Monday afternoon, and it barely gets below freezing anywhere (including the Shenandoah Valley) Monday night - not the recipe for a high impact ice storm.   The HRRR, though, still suggests a slightly bigger temperature drop for areas well north and west of the cities Monday night.

 

I am only posting maps for the humor lol. This thing has been so dead for most of us. I only want to see a coating, but I am not sure that is possible with the dry air in place initially(and lack of precip), and then the warming upper levels. The whole setup is just pure garbage.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am only posting maps for the humor lol. This thing has been so dead for most of us. I only want to see a coating, but I am not sure that is possible with the dry air in place initially(and lack of precip), and then the warming upper levels. The whole setup is just pure garbage.

        Fair enough.     I'm still hopeful of an inch at the start here in Howard County, but I'm far from confident.

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Just now, high risk said:

        Fair enough.     I'm still hopeful of an inch at the start here in Howard County, but I'm far from confident.

You probably have a decent chance there, unless the GFS is correct lol. Good luck.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Snowing out here in Winchester right now. I am guessing this will be the obs thread for the next couple of days?

 

Probably the best move.

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