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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog?  Asking for a friend. 

Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks. 

 

May want the pick axe too :yikes:

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

May want the pick axe too :yikes:

I’m fine with ice so long as I get a good amount of snow under it to turn into a glacier that lasts until Easter. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m fine with ice so long as I get a good amount of snow under it to turn into a glacier that lasts until Easter. 

It's like we're the same person, but I'm taller and face is different :lol:

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS Probability of 12”

 

Love the map but even if it showed a 163% chance, the chance of 0% is still much greater than 0%. Kinds like casino odds, MA weenies live in a world where odds are perpetually stacked against.

One thing I've noticed since I dropped back in this year is there are some seriously f'd up people who like playing this game and they feel completely normal here. It gets almost too obvious when you take a hiatus. I'm no different. No throwing rocks at glass houses here. But I would NEVER disucss this place or what I post anywhere with anyone for any reason where normal people hang out.

Good thing my wife has known there are some things seriously wrong with me before we even got married. She even joked about snow wx being my secret girlfriend. I told her she's the only one for me forever but to hang on until the 0z euro finishes before I prove it. Which makes complete sense with an imminent threat but I was waiting for hr216. 

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21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll buy what the 18z GFS is selling.

What a progression. Tasty! 

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34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

May want the pick axe too :yikes:

At this late stage in my weenieism, only 6-12" of ice will scratch the itch. Kinda like a cat 5 up the bay with a left turn at point lookout. I'm no spring chicken and time is running out on apocalyptic epicness to hit b4 I'm gone. I'd be honored at this point for winter wx to take me out. Heck, I had to come to grips with the same thing in the colorado backcountry and avalanches. You can mitigate but not remove the risk. So you either accept that every descent could be your last or dont make the first turn. I always said "this could be your final run of your life. Is it worth it?". The answer was always resounding F YEA! 

 

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TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC.   But after that it's an awesome storm  day 11-12.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC.   But after that it's an awesome storm  day 11-12.  

 

My favorite non Canadian fantasy storm of the year.   Historic snow and ice storm across a huge area.   Slower moving than 2003 or 1996.

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Lets just lock in the GFS thru D13 and move on to training camp and smallmouth....

Wow. Yea man. I'd be good if the next 2 weeks play out like that. 

A 3 day overrunning event and then a slow moving Miller A.

Where do I sign?

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. Yea man. I'd be good if the next 2 weeks play out like that. 

A 3 day overrunning event and then a slow moving Miller A.

Where do I sign?

Pretty much forms a glacier across the US.  Pretty impressive even for an op run.

So much tracking ahead...gfs basically had us on the right side of everything that run.  

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Pretty much forms a glacier across the US.  Pretty impressive even for an op run.

So much tracking ahead...gfs basically had us on the right side of everything that run.  

Just some silly totals on here.

A156696C-D777-47CE-8BC6-6DF3980C04D7.png

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It won’t happen, but look at the air coming into the Canadian prairies at the end of the gfs. Holy moly.

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When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

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44 minutes ago, Amped said:

TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC.   But after that it's an awesome storm  day 11-12.  

 

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 

I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours.  Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK.  No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way.  At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc.

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

Hmmmm. I see the -NAO more like Mickey Mouse....and I do heart Mickey. :)
 

Eta: lots of exciting tracking times ahead! 

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11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours.  Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK.  No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way.  At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc.

Someone else was coming back from VT in that.  We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early.   Hit snow S of Hartford.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 

At least in my neck of the woods in swva there was a significant strip of precip out in front of that storm that came through on Friday night. Then the storm really got cranking in Saturday evening.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

 

Someone else was coming back from VT in that.  We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early.   Hit snow S of Hartford.

Funny....I remember looking at the bank thermometer in Rutland on my way out and it was -18f

Out of the 5 of us there, 2 decided to stay and wait to come home.  I was one of the drivers and "hell no...the train is leaving the station."  I am not missing out on witnessing this storm by sitting in a hotel room eating pb&j and pounding cheap beer!

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

Not just an op though...

0B87ED9F-4893-4DAE-8EED-AA397882F6B3.thumb.png.6125ec5af1399609e800e846a4975449.png

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15 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Hard to fathom a sub 10F high temp in these parts.  It’s been a long time that I can remember. Actually not sure I can remember 

Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago.  I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb.

 

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47 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago.  I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb.

 

Yeah I was up in Canaan during feb of 2015 for that big arctic front.  I actually went out skiing during the passage of the front which was insane, total whiteout, almost couldn’t make it back visibility was so low.  But the next day the high was around 0. 

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