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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I know you're not asking me, but I want 8" on the ground when the snow stops.  That includes compaction from the frizzle.  Too high?

Given the trends I’d say you have a better chance of that than me. 8” for me seems to be the unicorn now. 
 

Now if I get 2” WAA because it dries up and miss the “tucked” low then I’ll root for my friends and get on with life. 

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14 minutes ago, H2O said:

Given the trends I’d say you have a better chance of that than me. 8” for me seems to be the unicorn now. 
 

Now if I get 2” WAA because it dries up and miss the “tucked” low then I’ll root for my friends and get on with life. 

There was a storm back in February 2005, I think, where I got into the backside for about 4 hours here and it was sick.  I wish I had a better memory for events like some of the savants on here, but then I'd have a healthy liver.  But I'd love a few hours of that again. 

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50 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But really I’m just embarrassed that I’ve been telling friends and family to expect 7-14” over two days.

After all we've been through over the last 15-20 years on the forums, you should know to never predict more than 6" until 8" is on the ground and "radar looks great"

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Figures I'd jump back in during a major event with a side order of forum divider. If 12z suite continues I'll spend my day making fliers and start gerrymandering and drawing new districts. Sorry mappy and psu. I'm only loyal to moco-hoco deathbands

No need to apologize. Snow is very much an imby thing, I get it. 

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Hate to say it, but hopefully the NAM’s aren’t on to something. That would be a pretty classic Miller B event for the sub-forum. 40N cash and south is meh. I still like a general 4-8” with local 10” to the north and east of I-83, but the monster totals are likely PA/NJ with this one right now. You NEED the Nam to adjust. It might not be the best for UL handling, but when it’s consistent, it’s a red flag. Was like that in 2016, 2017, 2019, and the last bigger event.


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Hoping the next few cycles can settle on a solution for the coastal.  It's my call whether or not to open up for business in Winchester Monday morning.  And then communicate that decision to ~25 people at some point Sunday afternoon.  

If the bulk of the accumulation happens Sunday, and Monday morning through 5:00 p.m. looks like nothing more than snow showers, we can operate.  Worst case though is if my home 35 miles north stays in the comma head all day on Monday and I'm at work missing it.  I've seen several models showing just that scenario.

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. 

It's easy to get greedy with something you get for free ... well, except for paying for the Internet connection that allows you to see the latest trends in models breaking your heart and teaching you why it's not good to get greedy with something -- snow -- you're ostensibly getting for free. 

I think there's a tautology in there. 

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9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hate to say it, but hopefully the NAM’s aren’t on to something. That would be a pretty classic Miller B event for the sub-forum. 40N cash and south is meh. I still like a general 4-8” with local 10” to the north and east of I-83, but the monster totals are likely PA/NJ with this one right now. You NEED the Nam to adjust. It might not be the best for UL handling, but when it’s consistent, it’s a red flag. Was like that in 2016, 2017, 2019, and the last bigger event.


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So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming?

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Just now, mattie g said:

True...I’m also embarrassed for myself. :lol:

Good to see you back, Chill!

Obviously my circle drills me every event too and I've eaten plenty of fried crow sandwhiches. Now I say it the same way. "Dont be mad if we get totally screwed but IF things break right we could get x amount". Then I'll add my personal level of optimism/pessimism. Always gives you an escape hatch and when we get screwed you can tell your circle to STFU because you warned them. Experienced weenies play this game like chess. Noob weenies play it like crazy 8s and barrel full of monkeys. 

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Wife and I decided to use this storm as a math lesson (graphing) for our currently homeschooled 2nd grader.

She and I will measure the snow at regular intervals, then plot them on a graph. After that, I’ll show her how to do it in Excel, which she’s excited about! :lol:p

But I guess if we don’t get all terribly much snow, we’ll just plot at a 1/4” scale. :lol:

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So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming?

The RGEM apparently doesn’t want to support American. It wants to bring poutine and Labat Blue to your backyard and have you take pictures with the moose in full flannel


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