George BM Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, high risk said: 12z guidance pretty much all took a pretty big step back in terms of coverage of convective rain/snow/graupel showers Saturday afternoon. It's not obvious why, but they all seemed to pick up on *something* that's hostile to the potential. Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jonjon Posted January 15 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, at your future place in WV? You picked a great weekend to come out here....snow showers everyday from upslope and the upper level system on Sunday/Monday. 6-8” through MLK day. I'm going to take the over on that. Hope I'm not wrong. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowchaser Posted January 15 Snowfall forecast Today - Tuesday TOTAL snowfall. Flurries are possible in DC Saturday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted January 15 So my map from Dec is still valid for the places that always shit snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted January 15 1 minute ago, jonjon said: I'm going to take the over on that. Hope I'm not wrong. My guess is you’ll easily have over a foot through MLK (with more following on Tuesday/Wednesday) since you do even better in upslope than here. We’re here through Wednesday night and I’m thinking I’ll see 8-10” through Wednesday but upside for higher totals. Maybe I’ll head down to the brewery one day! Although I’m sure this weekend will be crowded there. Wisp already sold out of lift tickets tomorrow/Sunday (for non season pass holders). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
high risk Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, George BM said: Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW). That's a good catch. It's not as blatant on the NAM3 and the Hi-Res Windows, but even the older cycles of those models clearly show a bit of a southerly component to the winds tomorrow that is absent in the 12z cycle. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted January 15 1 minute ago, high risk said: That's a good catch. It's not as blatant on the NAM3 and the Hi-Res Windows, but even the older cycles of those models clearly show a bit of a southerly component to the winds tomorrow that is absent in the 12z cycle. Hopefully, the 18z will bring it back! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jonjon Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: My guess is you’ll easily have over a foot through MLK (with more following on Tuesday/Wednesday) since you do even better in upslope than here. We’re here through Wednesday night and I’m thinking I’ll see 8-10” through Wednesday but upside for higher totals. Maybe I’ll head down to the brewery one day! Although I’m sure this weekend will be crowded there. Wisp already sold out of lift tickets tomorrow/Sunday (for non season pass holders). I hope you're right! PM me if you head this way. Probably a wait to get in over the weekend, but Sunday Monday may be easier. I'm usually off the grid during weekends, I'm trying to get my next business started up here (artisanal bakery). I plan on being an all-round yeast master. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
umdterps29 Posted January 15 I am out at Deep Creek through Wednesday. Excited to see some flakes fall for the next few days. Hoping to get 6"+ by the time I head back to Baltimore. It's pretty cold out currently. Barely over 32 and breezy. I expect temps to crash when the precip rolls in Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowchaser Posted January 15 Heavy sleet falling elevation 3,300 in Pocahontas West Virginia near Snowshoe. Temperature 32 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Snowfall forecast Today - Tuesday TOTAL snowfall. Flurries are possible in DC Saturday. Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Romney is def not my fav spot in West Virginia. I'm sure there are nice cabins, but it is in the rainshadow area. They may average 25-28 inches of snow per year if they are lucky. 20-30 miles to the west lies dolly sods and the Allegheny Front and 150 inches of yearly snowfall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’ve never been to Romney but I’ve heard some nice things about that town. I would say 3-8” total event would be a safe bet. Elevation depending. 3” inches for lower elevations up 8” for the mountains. Id be shocked if Romney got an inch. Northwest flow snows may provide a snow shower occasionally but in Romney, a NW wind is downsloping which dries up all of the moisture deposited on the Allegheny Front. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jonjon Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Only been to Romney a couple of times for my sons' basketball games. Seems like a nice little town from what I could tell. Definitely not going to get much snow there, though. As mentioned they are in the shadow of the Alleghenies. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted January 15 1 hour ago, umdterps29 said: I am out at Deep Creek through Wednesday. Excited to see some flakes fall for the next few days. Hoping to get 6"+ by the time I head back to Baltimore. It's pretty cold out currently. Barely over 32 and breezy. I expect temps to crash when the precip rolls in You picked a good time to come out. You’ll see snow everyday while you’re here. Enjoy it. 34/31 with precip at the doorstep. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
umdterps29 Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: You picked a good time to come out. You’ll see snow everyday while you’re here. Enjoy it. 34/31 with precip at the doorstep. Precip just started hot and heavy right away, but it is a graupel of sorts. Definitely not sleet, but very fine snowfall that is accumulating immediately Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted January 15 1 minute ago, umdterps29 said: Precip just started hot and heavy right away, but it is a graupel of sorts. Definitely not sleet, but very fine snowfall that is accumulating immediately Yeah, just noticed it now....got grauple/tiny flakes. What’s snow cover like where you are? Basically full coverage here but interestingly when I went ‘into town’/McHenry on 219, much spottier. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
umdterps29 Posted January 15 Just now, nj2va said: Yeah, just noticed it now....got grauple/tiny flakes. What’s snow cover like where you are? Basically full coverage here but interestingly when I went ‘into town’/McHenry on 219, much spottier. We are at the top of Wisp on a pretty flat piece of land that has a lot of exposure to sunlight so it's very spotty. Have a feeling it will cover up in a hurry this weekend though Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted January 15 Preview for our June 29 2021 squall line 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
umdterps29 Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: We are at the top of Wisp on a pretty flat piece of land that has a lot of exposure to sunlight so it's very spotty. Have a feeling it will cover up in a hurry this weekend though Just changed to big fatties and there's already about 1/4" on grass/wood surfaces. Roads are just wet for now 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GATECH Posted January 15 Snowing in Deep Creek! Most snow I have seen since I was in Yosemite in fall of 2019! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GATECH Posted January 15 Ripping here in deep creek, instant stickage! I love this place! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted January 15 1 minute ago, GATECH said: Ripping here in deep creek, instant stickage! I love this place! Nice, glad you are finally getting in on it! Legit SN+ with fatties! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GATECH Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, glad you are finally getting in on it! Legit SN+ with fatties! Too bad we leave tomorrow! But loving today! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
umdterps29 Posted January 15 19 minutes ago, GATECH said: Too bad we leave tomorrow! But loving today! 22 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, glad you are finally getting in on it! Legit SN+ with fatties! Absolutely ripping out there. Just went for a walk. 1/4 mile visibility at most and at times it seemed like it was down to about 100 yards. Easily picked up 1" on all surfaces at this point. Roads caved in a hurry 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GATECH Posted January 15 Total ripage...sorry y’all might be the only chance I can say that this year! 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
high risk Posted January 15 3 hours ago, chris21 said: Hopefully, the 18z will bring it back! done! NAM3 in particular looks much better for later Saturday afternoon. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdhokie Posted January 15 lol i just checked my cameras an hour or so ago and there was no coverage. saw the activity here and was surprised to see everything covered again! Coming up tomorrow! 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
