• Member Statistics

    16,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlueValleyHVAC
    Newest Member
    BlueValleyHVAC
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That is a long duration of an ice storm in the Carolinas per 0z GFS , although with that 1062 High Pressure,  a lot of that should be Snow

"In the contiguous U.S. the highest barometric reading is 1064 millibars which was measured at Miles City, Montana, on December 24, 1983"

So not impossile but extremely unlikely 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:


Hate to burst the bubble but sleet/zr will be on the table for most of the solutions that we see over the next few days

I’m ok with that at this point,  better than a cold rain!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wake4est said:

Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon.

B30B2454-E879-4E9F-A679-B2529D8C06E4.jpeg

Here's my best one, from Dec 2018. Ended up with only about 3-3.5.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120212_192_480_215.thumb.png.c802a0861781c1a4173840fb1609e869.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, sarcean said:

"In the contiguous U.S. the highest barometric reading is 1064 millibars which was measured at Miles City, Montana, on December 24, 1983"

So not impossile but extremely unlikely 

Most likely our excitement will be curbed shortly!   I’ll say fun while it lasted but who knows?  Still too far out. With my luck this one will probably deliver as I am closing on a house in a spot worse than  Grayman and moving will be delayed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I’m ok with that at this point,  better than a cold rain!


^found the board member with a generator

I admire your fortitude but if this a long duration overrunning affair then someone very well could see an inch of ice followed by a once every 3-5 year cold snap and frankly I don’t know if I want to be that household
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ILMRoss said:

 


^found the board member with a generator

I admire your fortitude but if this a long duration overrunning affair then someone very well could see an inch of ice followed by a once every 3-5 year cold snap and frankly I don’t know if I want to be that household

 

Yeah it’s a linked generator but we’re closing soon and would be moving!  Don’t want to jinx the board though Sir!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro was well on its way to a memorable SE winter storm at 240. Long ways to go, but the 13-15th period definitely has potential. 

E938A60C-28F8-4C03-8E1F-9E6BB8A53C04.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z gfs also trending that way. Hopefully we see euro start to fold in today’s cycles 

A53CCD24-8D72-44DC-ACD6-6BE577EEFE46.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jrips27 said:

Euro was well on its way to a memorable SE winter storm at 240. Long ways to go, but the 13-15th period definitely has potential. 

E938A60C-28F8-4C03-8E1F-9E6BB8A53C04.png

The control run dropped a ton of snow. Although how that is depicted in the Carolinas is kinda how I’d expect this to go given past history with these storms. There’s probably going to be a lot of ice for places like Whiteville and Florence and Wilmington.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe a 1979 Daytona 500 southeast snowstorm repeat next weekend for us. Hope the good model trends continue for us. Last night's models were a dream case scenario. Still Looking good this morning.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, jrips27 said:

Euro was well on its way to a memorable SE winter storm at 240. Long ways to go, but the 13-15th period definitely has potential. 

E938A60C-28F8-4C03-8E1F-9E6BB8A53C04.png

In some ways I liked this Euro run even better that that big GFS run, especially how it dug the initial southern stream wave down into Mexico and the entire height pattern sunk south across the lower 48...that would give us some wiggle room for keeping the low track to the south

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region. 

Agreed. Icon for me as of right now gets full credit it’s been showing it for multiple runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region. 

True but the latest Para actually trended more northwest/less with the snow on Sunday.  Need to see the 12Z run to see if that trend continues.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can see the upper level energy trending stronger and trying to dig harder in NE Arkansas and Western Tennessee this run.  

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

True but the latest Para actually trended more northwest/less with the snow on Sunday.  Need to see the 12Z run to see if that trend continues.  

I agree, the NW trend is always real! I thought the storm as a whole looked more organized and stronger this run which is probably why you see the NW movement. Totals went up in my area but definitely closer to the rain line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm not too enthused about the Saturday night storm. Looks like another sloppy coating to an inch type deal. Overnight too, with not a lot of upside.

In these “uncertain times”—I’m so tired of hearing that phrase—we’ll take whatever wintry precip we can get.  LOL.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

In these “uncertain times”—I’m so tired of hearing that phrase—we’ll take whatever wintry precip we can get.  LOL.

Exactly, not to be rude.... but I’d take a 1-2” event and Be ecstatic I didn’t get that last year. And haven’t had anything over 1” since DEC 18 we get a couple good medium range runs and think we’re the Northeast or something lmao

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.