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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Both the Canadian and the Para GFS have significant events day 8. 

The GFS was close but with a more inland track... if the EURO shows something around then,  we might have a storm to track....

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Euro is all by itself with the no storm idea 8 days from now. Gfs/gfs para/ Canadian/icon are all very similar with a significant storm. 

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Nothing but a gut feeling but I believe we will have a storm or two In the next couple of weeks .. maybe this one will verify and we can bring this one home 

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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

I know IT’S NEVER GOING TO SNOW AGAIN EVER EVER EVER but this is a solid look: 

 

 

6ACAABE4-C7A0-4119-9062-AA8CE682F4F7.png

B413E316-C5B6-4591-B396-0A18EF5CE160.png

Stop being the voice of reason to all the cliff jumpers :P 

40 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro is all by itself with the no storm idea 8 days from now. Gfs/gfs para/ Canadian/icon are all very similar with a significant storm. 

It will be interesting to see who folds first B)

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A lot of cliff diving when all of us knew good and well that Friday’s system was a reach (and knew this for days). Let the pattern get there, nobody I’ve seen has changed their tune. We need that trough to get a little sharper than it’s been. In the meantime, never trust ANYTHING that’s not a classic Miller A ;)

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850s we seem to be able to work with.  It's the boundary layers and the surface that we're still struggling to get cold. The ridging off the east coast is not our friend IMO. 

gfs-ens_T2ma_eus_34.png

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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

A lot of cliff diving when all of us knew good and well that Friday’s system was a reach (and knew this for days). Let the pattern get there, nobody I’ve seen has changed their tune. We need that trough to get a little sharper than it’s been. In the meantime, never trust ANYTHING that’s not a classic Miller A ;)

I understand. It I lived in Northwestern NC or S Va I would excited. But the rest of us are hoping and praying. Just don’t see the  cold air for most of us. I would be pumped if I lived in your area but ......

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58 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
Thanks guys for clarifying when winter is. I greatly appreciate it.

 


I understand “cliff jumping”
I understand hoping that 10-day forecasts are actually going to materialize
I will never understand why people argue with posters like@Met1985, @griteater,@jburns,@buckeyefan1 (other than her choice of teams ), etc.

Hammer


. Pro

 

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3 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

I know IT’S NEVER GOING TO SNOW AGAIN EVER EVER EVER but this is a solid look: 

 

 

6ACAABE4-C7A0-4119-9062-AA8CE682F4F7.png

B413E316-C5B6-4591-B396-0A18EF5CE160.png

It will definitely *NOT* snow with that look.

Happiness = reality minus expectations 

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18z GFS has almost a prefect track for central NC yet not cold enough. With the northwest adjust western NC could win. 

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1 hour ago, Hammer said:

 


I understand “cliff jumping”
I understand hoping that 10-day forecasts are actually going to materialize
I will never understand why people argue with posters like@Met1985, @griteater,@jburns,@buckeyefan1 (other than her choice of teams emoji23.pngemoji1787.pngemoji23.png), etc.

Hammer


. Pro

 

:fulltilt:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

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Well 12 GFS isn't great but not a dumpster fire either.  Will see some real cold this weekend and mountains likely to see some measurable snow.  I am heading for a 2.5 hour trail ride at Blowing Rock Saturday.  Hope to ride in a little snow.  Monday - Wednesday next week will see a southern storm.  Looks mostly liquid but things can change.  Guess best news is artic cold builds back in Canada W/O 01/18 - 01/27.  Too soon to tell where it dumps but just having the cold in Canada is a positive.  Remember, it's not over until we say it's over!.....or at least until Burns says its over.  

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

 

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The lack of snowstorms on the ops can be overcome with plenty of cold air around but up until the end of the run there is no real arctic cold showing up. I don’t get below 28 degrees the entire run. I feel like the last three weeks or so the gfs has been showing arctic air towards the end of the run but it hasn’t materialized. It’s getting to be mid January and we need something to break right for us. If we waste this blocking it’s going to be a gut punch 

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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

I'll believe it when I see it.

Me too. Was reading the WPC long term outlook at they expect warmer than normal temperatures in the next two weeks. Confidence was low but it look like we will punt until very late January unless we get lucky over next week 

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21 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

GFS looked great around 144 tonight before the storm seemingly split in two.

Man , don’t be such a weenie . 

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6 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

GFS looked great around 144 tonight before the storm seemingly split in two.

Gfs been suffering from convective feedback issues. Which honestly most of the globals have been as well. Wouldn't really put much faith past 84 hours. 

Honestly the Canadian looks fishy at 0z

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