PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Good news is I think many of the models have been hinting at least some sort of backside love, albeit not very significant. Even 1” would at least make the ground white (for most). I’ve seen the 3k have it, hrrr, hrdps, and a some of the gfs runs. I dunno. Trying to find a silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 29/24 clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Good news is I think many of the models have been hinting at least some sort of backside love, albeit not very significant. Even 1” would at least make the ground white (for most). I’ve seen the 3k have it, hrrr, hrdps, and a some of the gfs runs. I dunno. Trying to find a silver lining Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27/21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. 100%. That’s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. Latest HRRR is basically showing this scenario, it appears. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. That is the post of the year right there. It would be awesome to have that happen. We can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR looks solid at 0z for a lot of folks in the CMD/DC metro to get thumped at least with some snow initially. 6-8” across the folks north of 70 East to 83 in the “Hereford zone”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm hugging HRRR. HRRR is best model. I'm breaking up with the Euro. Seriously though, yummu. WB HRRR. Usual caveat that these maps are misleading, but for me, my totals usually are much closer to these than the "Snow depth" maps as I tend to bust high in my microclimate in Germantown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM has a little bit better CAD. First flakes between 9 and 10 AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Here come the radar hallucinations: Way more moisture then depicted this hour... look at that moisture convection to the gulf! (This is a bingo card, right) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: WRT to this event, even though there is ridging up over GL, its not what I would consider an "effective" block for this area. If it were, the 50-50 low wouldn't be hauling ass up into the NA. So in this case we really needed to thread the needle- to time everything perfectly, because that low and the associated confluence (and surface HP) are on the move. We really aren't getting the necessary compressed flow/suppression, which would have inhibited height rises out in front and forced the low track further south. We’ve had snow events work with less. You’re 100% that the look up top isn’t the stone cold killer perfect analog look. But it’s a good enough look to make a snowstorm realistic but we would need some help. The perfect look up top makes it where more factors can go wrong and still work. This setup we needed more to go our way. Not enough did. Even with the 50/50 vacating had that rogue SW not dug the trough west of us we probably got a decent snow event. But a few things went wrong and it’s Dec and the block wasn’t perfect enough to offset. But I would take this look all winter and roll the dice! Might not get a hecs but we would probably get a couple warning events with enough chances with a similar pattern imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Not a single hourly sounding show any mixing here on that run of the HRRR... No idea if it has a clue but what does look more likely is a nice thump on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The question is has the HRRR ever scored a coup. It shows me 8 inches Kuchera. I’d give up drinking for 3 hours for that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Already down to 23F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I cant see all of the levels on IWM. But the NAM is juicy as hell. It is a beatdown for the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The question is has the HRRR ever scored a coup. It shows me 8 inches Kuchera. I’d give up drinking for 3 hours for that. I saw hrrr do well with 2016 storm. But even my goldfish got that one right, so eh I don’t own a goldfish, actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm hugging HRRR. HRRR is best model. I'm breaking up with the Euro. Seriously though, yummu. WB HRRR. Usual caveat that these maps are misleading, but for me, my totals usually are much closer to these than the "Snow depth" maps as I tend to bust high in my microclimate in Germantown. Peep HoCo. Just as I alluded to earlier. Models keep showing this secondary jackpot JUST west of the rain/snow line where QPF jacks in that crazy meso band. Not sure this has any chance to pan out, but it intrigues me that hi res (hrrr 12k nam) keep showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy Nam is looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 nice autumn CAD at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Have we all given up on 50” at Camp David? 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve had snow events work with less. You’re 100% that the look up top isn’t the stone cold killer perfect analog look. But it’s a good enough look to make a snowstorm realistic but we would need some help. The perfect look up top makes it where more factors can go wrong and still work. This setup we needed more to go our way. Not enough did. Even with the 50/50 vacating had that rogue SW not dug the trough west of us we probably got a decent snow event. But a few things went wrong and it’s Dec and the block wasn’t perfect enough to offset. But I would take this look all winter and roll the dice! Might not get a hecs but we would probably get a couple warning events with enough chances with a similar pattern imo. No doubt the fact that its mid Dec, warm ocean temps etc are major factors. For the lowlands esp we need a damn near perfect h5 setup, or at least some anomalous cold. This setup would likely have a different outcome if this were a legit Arctic air mass. But yeah I would take my chances even over here with this same general setup in another month. I agree the looks we are seeing on the means are good enough to keep the MA in the game moving forward, assuming they are correct. Also seeing hints of an EPO ridge popping again. We will see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Might want to check that. Not looking great. Warm pushing west. Pretty different from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I saw hrrr do well with 2016 storm. But even my goldfish got that one right, so eh I don’t own a goldfish, actually That was funny. Yeah 2016 was an ex button 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Been on the fall line between 1” of snow and then heavy rain and 6” of snow and then a sleet mix for the past 4 runs. Definitely a now cast for the immediate i95 crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. My nakey eye ball agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ^ looks like it depend what maps you use. Could easily be 33 and rain or ya could call it wintry mix at 21. Lot of people on the edge. DCA doesn't even get above 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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