WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

Recommended Posts

No big complaints from this storm as my bust was 2" and my boom was 5".  Going with 3.3" based on last night's sleet and the 12:30am turn-back to snow/sleet.  Sure, I would've liked more but will rationalize this for the better:  can walk out my door and do whatever I need to do today, no big-time shoveling today in brutal windchills, will let sun do it's work melting sidewalks, etc.; plus, the ground is white, which is all I really wanted in the end, so am glad that the many hours of sleet and rain beat-down did not destroy the snowcover, which may stick around until the weekend warms things up again.

Waiting to hear from my friends near Middletown, NY (in the Shawangunk Mountains chain, about 90 mins east of Scranton on I-84) to see how they fared after their local NWS forecast going in was 11"-19" with higher lollies.  They always do well being just NE of Poconos but in lower NY State.

One suggestion on future events -- posters could note their location instead of saying "here" or referencing their zipcode.  On the phone, don't see posters' locations; altho I know many by heart, certainly don't recall them all.  

Nice pre-Xmas start!  Also, coldest temp of the season this morning IMBY at 22.7.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Next time the Canadian spits out a solution you really like from less than 7 days in, remember this ..

3482BF94-87EE-4D95-A7BB-A5FF4C1EB8EC.thumb.png.f98050b584751f2bd51ab344ebdfcef2.png

Not a flake or a sleet pellet here. Just a frozen deck and car this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Next time the Canadian spits out a solution you really like from less than 7 days in, remember this ..

3482BF94-87EE-4D95-A7BB-A5FF4C1EB8EC.thumb.png.f98050b584751f2bd51ab344ebdfcef2.png

That map can suck my ass.  #nevertrustagain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got 4.5" from the front end, about 0.1" sleet, 0.2" ZR (RIP pine trees in the neighborhood), then 1.5" on the back end for a storm total of 6". This is three times the December climo for my area and is the biggest snowfall event I've had in Reisterstown since I moved back to Maryland in August 2016. We have more opportunities on the horizon and maybe even something for Christmas proper. I'm happy with this, but it's time to get everyone else on the board.

131943318_164818685381862_7530064572822311366_n.thumb.jpg.eaa2307f47d6c44f4a158a8debd24f0b.jpg131928124_122481156274491_6858011430776767796_n.thumb.jpg.6c128211b65be50f4a57ebc78c77853f.jpg

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Latest LWX totals, including my morning report:

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202012171312

 

Only a few 10"+ reports.  Seemed like the far N/W zones mostly ended up with 7-10".  

Yep, a good storm for December in some spots but well off the pace for what was being hyped. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to tell exactly because of the wind but looks like I picked up 3 inches last night after the change over.

Storm total of 9.0 of snow/sleet

Forecast was for 12 to 18 here in Washington county. Missed the mark a little but still a great start to the season.

Last year I only had 5.5. By far the lowest total in 20 years living in Smithsburg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fgen forced snow bands are great when you are under them, but frustrating as hell if you are in the adjacent area of sinking air.

Oh man in Jan. 25, 2000, I was between two bands like that for hours.  I even had a peek of sun at one point.  I ended up with 7" while areas to the west and east got 15-20. That one hurt! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, a good storm for December in some spots but well off the pace for what was being hyped. 

Yep.  The 12-18 amounts out this way seemed too bullish based on the last 24 hours of guidance.  Mix zones usually verify more north and west than forecast.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3" here in eastern Loudoun followed by sleet, sone rain, then about 8 hours of freezing rain/drizzle resulting in 2 inches of compacted cement and this.  To whoever said something yesterday about ice storms never verifying here...

 

8590337F-A1C5-4BCE-9445-66DD40581143.jpeg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Oh man in Jan. 25, 2000, I was between two bands like that for hours.  I even had a peek of sun at one point.  I ended up with 7" while areas to the west and east got 15-20. That one hurt! 

I was in that same hole! Remember it well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, a good storm for December in some spots but well off the pace for what was being hyped. 

10-40" isn't hype when multiple states are in these totals including parts of Md,Pa,NY,NE . + possibly parts of WV .Short range trends went further north with biggest amounts but they didn't disappear.  Just saying :)

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

3" here in eastern Loudoun followed by sleet, sone rain, then about 8 hours of freezing rain/drizzle resulting in 2 inches of compacted cement and this.  To whoever said something yesterday about ice storms never verifying here...

 

8590337F-A1C5-4BCE-9445-66DD40581143.jpeg

Some glaze on trees is not an ice storm. I assume you were not here for 1994. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, losetoa6 said:

10-40" isn't hype when multiple states are in these totals including parts of Md,Pa,NY,NE . + possibly parts of WV .Short range trends went further north with biggest amounts but they didn't disappear.  Just saying :)

 

LOL 10-40 is quite a range. If you want to claim victory over 3 foot totals in upstate NY, that’s fine. That’s how HM verifies his forecasts...

7-10 is the upper range in our subforum for the most part. 

A good storm, but some folks sure were resistant to the idea they’d mix with sleet and have a dry slot even though the models were screaming it at the end. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PhineasC said:

Some glaze on trees is not an ice storm. I assume you were not here for 1994. 

I was, actually, and I remember it well.

We get some glaze on trees every year, but this is the most I have seen in 10 years in this location. It is hard to tell from the photo but it is well over a quarter inch on trees, mailbox, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After I went out and actually saw how much more snow I got, it was definitely NOT the whopping 1 to 2 inches I had thought! SORRY for the exaggeration. Actual measuring and getting real data is super important!

Storm:
* First Snow - 5.3 inches
* Sleety Mess - 1 inch
* Topper - .65 inches

Total = 6.95 inches but it only is between 4 and 5 inches on the ground due to melting and compaction (measured best I could)

Huge win! Hated that we could not be all snow, but in December.. just can't complain much. Also, beautiful walk this morning with the dog. The streets are super icy! If you have a rudder sled, there have to be some amazing spots to fly! 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

I was, actually, and I remember it well.

We get some glaze on trees every year, but this is the most I have seen in 10 years in this location. It is hard to tell from the photo but it is well over a quarter inch on trees, mailbox, etc.

I can’t tell from the picture but I will take your word for it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely learned some things with this storm. I tried to be even keeled, but once again, I got bit some on the warm air intrusion in the boundary layer. I wrote a tweet thread about it. My estimates were still okay, for the most part. My high ends needed to be trimmed some out west. I’m glad almost everyone in here got some snow though. I certainly miss it and being back home for these events.




.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If I was posting this in the Upstate NY forum your response would make more sense. Why should I give a single shit what happened up there?

Then why should we give a shit when you tell us how wonderful it is in Vermont?

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Then why should we give a shit when you tell us how wonderful it is in Vermont?

I would never tell you that. I wouldn't use snow totals from hundreds of miles away to tell you that it was a great storm for your backyard. Kinda silly, but weenie psychology is a fragile thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.