WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Alternate reality Oh ya...he’s tripping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: These are the changes that you, scooter and I have been anticipating, and why the 20-30" in PA and NJ is BS. Also why this may be very high impact for some of NE. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Ok. Pretty interesting track if I get what you're thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: These are the changes that you, scooter and I have been anticipating, and why the 20-30" in PA and NJ is BS. Also why this may be very high impact for some of NE. And for the “easy for you to say” crowd....how many times have we seen this? Sure maybe we’re proven wrong...lord knows last two seasons have done that for me...but I think this s/w as modeled is pretty potent and it wouldn’t shock us to see a couple of moves NW. not necessarily jumps, but more like bumps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And for the “easy for you to say” crowd....how many times have we seen this? Sure maybe we’re proven wrong...lord knows last two seasons have done that for me...but I think this s/w as modeled is pretty potent and it wouldn’t shock us to see a couple of moves NW. not necessarily jumps, but more like bumps. Late Sunday and Monday runs, right as the convection starts firing in the southeast. Happens every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And for the “easy for you to say” crowd....how many times have we seen this? Sure maybe we’re proven wrong...lord knows last two seasons have done that for me...but I think this s/w as modeled is pretty potent and it wouldn’t shock us to see a couple of moves NW. not necessarily jumps, but more like bumps. Just don’t lessen my SE MA experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And for the “easy for you to say” crowd....how many times have we seen this? Sure maybe we’re proven wrong...lord knows last two seasons have done that for me...but I think this s/w as modeled is pretty potent and it wouldn’t shock us to see a couple of moves NW. not necessarily jumps, but more like bumps. yeah, good lesson for some of the newbies on the board like DT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowEMass said: Just don’t lessen my SE MA experience Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Where are you located? Stoughton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here in the Catskills with the CMC/GFS runs in mind I really wouldn't mind if this evolves to become the next 95 crusher. Many of you here (and in the MA/NYC forums) definitely need it after the last few years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Be careful, some of our "friends" to the north would gladly see us all rain so that they can cash in. Gotta be vigilant around here. Snow is serious bidness. Seriously. It’s every snowman for himself in the jungle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. The official winter storm song of Greenfield these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 hours ago, TheBudMan said: Need Jerry to wake up and give us the muthafukkas for BOS. Can Thursday be double digits ? For 0Z 4+6 but it will be crazy 8s once they come in today. MUTHUFUKKA! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS definitely trended north from 6z with the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: These are the changes that you, scooter and I have been anticipating, and why the 20-30" in PA and NJ is BS. Also why this may be very high impact for some of NE. Why are big amounts in PA and NNJ bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Why are big amounts in PA and NNJ bs? Probably those NW ticks, but I think PA can do well in certain parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Hopefully it trends south, grazing SE MA and just a dusting here. Best case 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The tucked in and more miller A’ish look seems plausible which would put up big numbers in PA and NNJ. It doesn’t mean Metheun has to get shafted though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Here in the Catskills with the CMC/GFS runs in mind I really wouldn't mind if this evolves to become the next 95 crusher. Many of you here (and in the MA/NYC forums) definitely need it after the last few years Pfff, speak for yourself. I want T-Blizz sweating p-type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Why are big amounts in PA and NNJ bs? Warmer mid levels and less precip is secondary bombing is delayed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie is somewhat suppressed and not that potent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: GFS will put feet in CT this run, tick south. Glad we don’t live there 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Probably those NW ticks, but I think PA can do well in certain parts. Well in parts, sure. That big swath of 20-30"....no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is somewhat suppressed and not that potent. Been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is somewhat suppressed and not that potent. I’ve noticed all the Ukie runs have that powerful high poking down even more so than the other modeling does...or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Warmer mid levels and less precip is secondary bombing is delayed. Maybe you are referring to PA as Philly and NJ as Atlantic City then because Im not seeing that in Scranton PA or Sussex NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is somewhat suppressed and not that potent. Odd there is a low off of Florida too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well in parts, sure. That big swath of 20-30"....no. Being close to those areas 20-30" absolutely isn't happening. 8-12 with pockets of 12-16 probably seem most doable at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie is strange to me. H5 goes right into SNE lol. About 6" give or to pike verbatim I think. Not sure why it has the low that far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: Well, it's tricky to explain effectively. Essentially we use ensembles because we don't understand the uncertainty of our chaotic atmosphere. Taking into account this uncertainty, the model runs several times with slightly perturbed conditions in order to create the individual members in order to best account for all possibilities. That's how we get the ensemble mean. The ensemble control forecast is the ensemble member run from the unperturbed, coarse-resolution initial conditions. Essentially the control run is useless in conclusion Thanks. I have just never seen the word "control " used when discussing the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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