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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we can get that guy to dig a bit more, it could theoretically reach a tipping point, at which it begins to constructively interfere, as opposed to deconstructively.

Ensemble sensitivity kind of backs that up. 12z GEFS has over 50% of the variance in members explained by a more tucked surface low.

The ensemble is most sensitive to 500 heights trailing our shortwave. Meaning, the lower the heights upstream, the more tucked the surface low.

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4 minutes ago, summerthyme said:

Sometimes I can't tell if ya'll are joking with each other or not. I certainly hope so, otherwise that would be embarrassing behavior from adults. 

These weather forums go back years. Nothing is personal. I've been a part of them since like 2008 or 2009, been to a get together and met a bunch of the people posting in this thread in person, and I still feel like a newbie.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Not feeling good about this one down here. That is a heavy lean NW. Still think it looks like March 2017 track.

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this...

12_16.20_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.78c4d9a427fc5a6506cb38e36af73b00.jpg03_12.17_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.8e294d310fdf7dfcd6b06f791ae05766.jpg

I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. 

I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. 

Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. 

17311593_10100344452387032_1650465078_o.thumb.jpg.10713a73c5c2ece1644547644a52c38d.jpg

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I've been a member for 8 years - can't believe it's been that long - don't know crap about forecasting but am a big outdoor recreation enthusiast. Plus, I joined to keep to keep an eye on my then HS age son. I don't get half the jokes - before my time; but everyone has a role to play (and they do it well) especially during storm meltdown time. You go through a couple of winters of this and it just becomes comical. I literally have been laughing out loud at my computer reading this stuff. 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this...

12_16.20_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.78c4d9a427fc5a6506cb38e36af73b00.jpg03_12.17_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.8e294d310fdf7dfcd6b06f791ae05766.jpg

I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. 

I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. 

Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. 

17311593_10100344452387032_1650465078_o.thumb.jpg.10713a73c5c2ece1644547644a52c38d.jpg

Yea, that one didn't have a block....it just ripped NE. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have known most of the guys in here about 15 years...him I do not know, but it wasn't anything personal. It was a generic, albeit crude pun...I do not know him personally. I'm sure he has had an assortment of rewarding romantic encounters throughout his life.

Back to weather-

That's a colorful image.

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2 minutes ago, Angus said:

I've been a member for 8 years - can't believe it's been that long - don't know crap about forecasting but am a big outdoor recreation enthusiast. Plus, I joined to keep to keep an eye on my then HS age son. I don't get half the jokes - before my time; but everyone has a role to play (and they do it well) especially during storm meltdown time. You go through a couple of winters of this and it just becomes comical. I literally have been laughing out loud at my computer reading this stuff. 

Who is your son on here... I forget.

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