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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Support from models with poor verification scores isn’t forecast support. It’s just giving false sense of confidence. 
 

 

It's sort of similar to Dombrowski and the Sox signing Eovaldi to a 4/68 million dollar contract after pitching 22 good innings during the 2018 post season....

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1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Sounds like there is too much dissection going on right now amongst the models for a storm that still hasn't even developed yet. Lots of dumpster diving here with models.

Pretty much. The s/w isn’t even onshore yet...more changes to come. But we live and die with every run.

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8 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

I'll ride it given the GFS history of holding out until we are within 48 hours. Would be a pretty epic GFS win if it went the other way.

I'm feeling much better about this now. Not only because the GFS is still alone, but also because other models (UKMET, GGEM) are trending north. We'll see shortly what the Euro shows.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Hope springs eternal.

I appreciate that you are using reasoning in your thought processes. I just feel like I’ve seen so many of these situations over the year particularly this far out, that it just starts to trend a little bit then a little more further north. Unless there is an overriding truly dominant feature to shove everything east. It doesn’t seem to me that there’s enough going on up north to shove this east but the short wave sampling later tonight will tell us a lot because in order for it to come norththe sw does have to be strong it would seem

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Modeled jacks over ALB still make me tingle even 15 years after living there, ha.  Weird.  But man from here to you Dryslot that thing runs into a brick wall.  

I have to hang my hat on a weaker 50/50 or a retreating one, Or need this to track over Metfans head before the ENE slide.

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