Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[allgame830]

4.5” getting absolutely smoked right now!!

[sferic]

Approaching 2 inches in Liberty NY in the Catskills  15.8/14

 

There is some nice echos passing through but nothing too much in back of that

 

The HRRR also is decreasing hour by hour its 15z totals.

 

Concerning ?

[winterwarlock]

snizzle with a howling wind in Belle Mead...24

 

We have 4 inches of snow. What are the chances of any back end snow...could these be it for the night?

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

4.5” getting absolutely smoked right now!!

Just south of you in Hawthorne.  It’s piling up esp. in the last hr.  

[SACRUS]

26/25 mod snow / 4.5  - 5 on the ground.

 

 

[TheManWithNoFace]

HRRR gives north/Central NJ another 4-8". Column is unsaturated, wind is ripping up ratios, this will underperform totals. 

[Snowlover11]

radar looks ugly.

[NJwx85]

That dry slot that’s been on the models for days is rearing its ugly head.

[gravitylover]

It's officially dumping. I can't see my corner ~400 feet away.

[OrangeCTWX]

Radar should fill in once the storm stalls and starts moving east. Till then it will be patchy.

[sferic]

@crossbowftw3 @snywx Is confidence still high in your opinion for us ?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like some back end action is coming together over Virginia, maybe that bodes well for a CCB early tomorrow morning around nyc.

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 @snywx Is confidence still high in your opinion for us ?

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

Jeez

Euro has alot more than the Nam  in our area.

[sferic]

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

so this is for 4PM tomorrow and basically if it is  correct is the total or what is still  left to come?

I was under the impression like with the HRRR every hourly run projected to the end of the storm shows what is left to come not the cumulative snow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5.5 inches as of 9PM. 3.25 inches in the last hour 18.6° and heavy snow.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

NAM sucks obviously this is halftime this thing is about to get wild. There’s a blizzard out there and NAM says it’s over it’s laughable how erratic that model could be 

Agree

Nam has been off all day

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

NAM sucks obviously this is halftime this thing is about to get wild. There’s a blizzard out there and NAM says it’s over it’s laughable how erratic that model could be 

I think the NAM is closer to a final depiction than the ones predicting another huge dump. we'll see.

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Nam has been off all day

Already sleeting so nam was right about mid level warming

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Already sleeting so nam was right about mid level warming

Where is it sleeting?

[snywx]

13 minutes ago, sferic said:

so this is for 4PM tomorrow and basically if it is  correct is the total or what is still  left to come?

I was under the impression like with the HRRR every hourly run projected to the end of the storm shows what is left to come not the cumulative snow

01z HRRR

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Where is it sleeting?

It’s sleeting imby in far southern westchesterr and a lot of reports of sleet in southern westchester 

[winterwarlock]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where is it sleeting?

everywhere

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where is it sleeting?

Its been sleeting in a lot of places for hours; but it sometimes flips back to snow. Just did here. No dry slot affect yet over here.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Its been sleeting in a lot of places for hours; but it sometimes flips back to snow.

Yes when its lighter it’s sleet when it gets heavier it mixes and flips to snow, not surprised but just saying there’s definitely a warm layer around the region. 

[viking70]

Sleeting here in Ossining

[Mitchel Volk]

A few monster flakes mix with average size flakes in Brooklyn Heights 

[winterwx21]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Nam has been off all day

NAM has been the model showing lower totals for this area due to both mid level warming and dry slot issues. So if we end up getting lower amounts, which appears to be the case right now (unless we get a very strong back end overnight), then NAM was the model that actually did the best.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, viking70 said:

Sleeting here in Ossining

Wow that far north

[laissezpasser]

After an hour-long lull, large dendrites now falling in Hoboken.