Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[ChineseFood4Snow]

4 minutes ago, wxman said:

It's snowing like a beast.  I see it and radar confirms it.  Just blasted over 2".  Maybe you live in a microclimate.

He's the Cameron Frye of snowstorms...he never sees anything good.

[winterwarlock]

6 minutes ago, wxman said:

It's snowing like a beast.  I see it and radar confirms it.  Just blasted over 2".  Maybe you live in a microclimate.

you live on a mountain, I live off of 206 in belle mead...we have one inch

[MJO812]

Winter  Wonderland outside in Brooklyn 

[Rtd208]

Moderate to heavy snow here.

Estimating around 2.0" of accumulation.

Current temp 27/DP 24

[Eduardo]

8 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

S+ in Brooklyn heights 

Can confirm, neighbor. Wow!

[MJO812]

Sheepshead Bay here

Ripping snow

[nycwinter]

25 in manhattan never was it predicted to be 25 at any point with heavy snow..

[MJO812]

I'm at 27 now. Did the models ever show it getting into the mid 20s?

[ZNSTATED]

28f & snow in shirley, colder than forecasted

Come on cold hold the line I need the day off tomorrow

Z

[NJwx85]

23 degrees here and light snow.

[ChineseFood4Snow]

2 minutes ago, ZNSTATED said:

28f & snow in shirley, colder than forecasted

Come on cold hold the line I need the day off tomorrow

Z

Never mind...didn't work.   Yes, hold the line!

[wdrag]

Just to answer a question that originated 2 hrs ago:  Sounding can be 0 or below but if the saturated layer doesn't have any -8C  above 2 or 3000 feet, ,hard to get snow in that sounding. In other words, we need ice nuclei or salt nuclei.  Usually -8C is the theoretical warmest limit to produce snow via ice nuclei.  

Here's some depressing guidance for NYC... I hope the probabilistic is too low for 6,12,18.  Also add probabilistic chance for .01 freezing rain. The 12z/ 16 HPC HREF you will like but my guess it's 3" too high in NJ/LI...just my guess. That last HPC HREF graphic is for 7P tonight to 7P tomorrow...has no snow prior to 7P. 

This is it for me for a bunch of hours.

[nycsnow]

Legit blizzard conditions 

[nycsnow]

Mix like collapsing by Toms River 

[Metsfan]

1.5" mod snow. Wind marginal, but gusty. SPC mesoscale analysis is interesting. A lot of stuff pointing to east solution. 2 hour pressure change near kitty hawk with 850-700 frontogenesis north of the pressure change south and east of ACK. 

[Poker2015]

32 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

you live on a mountain, I live off of 206 in belle mead...we have one inch

Yeah, those yellows and oranges are BS...it's barely snowing here in Branchburg

[wkd]

34 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

you live on a mountain, I live off of 206 in belle mead...we have one inch

I feel your lain. I live about 5 miles norheast of Flemington.  A little over 1 inch. Snowing hard now though.

 

[MJO812]

Upton should have issue Blizzard  Warnings. Visibility is getting bad here in Brooklyn with heavy blowing snow.

[nycwinter]

i think here in parts of manhattan and the bronx will get over a foot maybe 16 inches possible.

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm at 27 now. Did the models ever show it getting into the mid 20s?

It’s colder than modeled.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Mix like collapsing by Toms River 

You can see the mix struggling to move north where the heavy precip rates are and starting to surge north in E PA where the precip is weakening. Hopefully it stays like this. 

[snywx]

Tonight is gonna be wild up here! 

 

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s colder than modeled.

agreed but 3 or 4 degrees

[MJO812]

The last time I saw snow fall this hard was in Jan 2016

[nycwinter]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The last time I saw snow fall this hard was in Jan 2016

no kidding..

[winterwarlock]

9 minutes ago, wkd said:

I feel your lain. I live about 5 miles norheast of Flemington.  A little over 1 inch. Snowing hard now though.

 

and we also went from moderate to heavy snows.....we have 2.5 inches here now in Belle Mead

[jm1220]

Legit heavy snow now. Crazy.

[Blizzardo]

Looks like its about to get heavy in northen NJ.

[SACRUS]

25/24  3.2 inches on the ground

 

 

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i think here in parts of manhattan and the bronx will get over a foot maybe 16 inches possible.

Not according to the graphics Drag posted....small chance, very small, of being over 12, and less than 50% chance of over 6. If I'm reading correctly. But that's from NWS. I'm near Staten Island and hope to eke out 6.Anything more will be bonus IMHO.