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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort.

Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes.  Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4...

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs finally has dt woof

Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM.  Lots of chances post-Xmas.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM.  Lots of chances post-Xmas.

EPS looked better timing-wise, so that's encouraging at least.

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The consistency and the depth portrayed regarding the - AO and the - NAO for the rest of this month and the first week of January are really stunning. 

Added to this is the ongoing warming up top and you have to really wonder what we may achieve at the lowest point of the - AO phase. 

This is pretty crazy looking.

 

EEA5E485-D68A-4F39-B06F-00947D36337C.png

 

 

Image

 

Image

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20 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too?

You late bro.

And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing.

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. 

I saw the snowpack up your way on Saturday when I was in Hampstead.  Really nice start to the season up there. 

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You late bro.

And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing.

At this point it is not DT hype.. its kinda GFS and Euro/ good pattern.. there are a lot of chances hype..

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15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I can’t tell if this is continuing the joke or if you missed rhe pages of digression yesterday...

it works either way actually.

New target for Leesburgtownville?

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And we were all thinking it would be worse. Glad the potential is there, and some have already taken advantage of it!

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You late bro.

And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing.

You aren’t new here. We never let anything go. There’s still stuff throw out here from 10 years ago.

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I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”.

image.thumb.png.1fbaf7dae8a55aa6f5108327a534b964.png

 

image.thumb.png.38290ed1b521c759df7a8e2b16eb3569.png

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Yeah, the pacific pattern is pretty meh going forward. Because of that, the blocking is mostly just trapping modified Pac air masses underneath. But the blocking gives us a lot of wiggle room to time up a transient -EPO and/or +PNA where we could score bigly. As @Bob Chill used to say, it usually takes 3-4 chances for us to score. Seems likely to me we get at least that many chances between now and ~Jan 2/3. I think something works out by then. Doesn’t mean Jan 96 redux, but with the blocking, potential is higher than usual for a major event.

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Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all.  

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Well, I don't think anyone here is seriously comparing stuff to '96...mostly commenting on DT's "best pattern since '96" remark, and mostly mocking it, from what I've read in here.  At any rate...yes...cannot argue with how active it looks post-Christmas, that's for sure!  And the pattern up-top might be at least somewhat conducive for something good in that time frame (even if the Pac is "meh").  Let's hope so!

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

FYP!  (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!)

Love scrapple.  Jersey transplant so pork roll and scrapple is a staple.  Just don’t ask what’s in either.  We gots chances coming up yo..all we can say for now

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1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”.

Probably won't see a sustained PNA ridge this winter based on enso state. Admittedly the Nina looks to have peaked but we will likely be past prime climo by the time we see lag effect out West wrt the PNA. We will see transient ridging in that area as is evident in recent weeks. But as many including myself have stated earlier in the season, the main wild card will be AO and NAO ridging. Thus far we have seen a tendency for those regions to linger in negative territory. As long as we aren't seeing a sustained PAC firehose destroying any cold air sources,  we can score without a +PNA. I dont have specific examples handy attm but they have been posted here in the past. AO and NAO are far more important in this region for snowstorms than a PNA spike. And we can still get MECS in a -PNA especially if the pattern keeps reloading in the AO/NAO zones.

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34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Really? Dammit, here I was gearing up for a repeat. Thanks for showing us the light! 

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