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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. 

Hopefully, I get a new coffee maker for Christmas along with an extensive variety of coffees to fuel the late nights of tracking in Jan.   :grinch:

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6 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range.

gfs_z500a_namer_56.thumb.png.7ec0d4f33f5f6eadf765c0691f37d9ac.png

HECS.gif.c0c4ece7a7988923fc42c345bb7449cf.gif.4f73e13b5ab638025251d8117dcae59e.gif

 

The long range GFS matches the new CFS for Jan. 2021 , which according to the date today of the 22 nd should be entering its period of higher verification for the next 30 day period.

I like ! We track ! 

@psuhoffman  you think ridge bridge way out there possible. 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_fh1_trend (1).gif

 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. 

 

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I concur.

Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though. 

CMC never gets it here. For the second run it gets to TX then loops for 4 days blocked from moving east at all.  From what I’ve seen the ensembles are all over and don’t key on anything. A lot of shred factory dry members. Some miller b screw jobs. A few big hits sprinkled in. Some misses to the south. Shotgun spread so no signal. 

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3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

 

five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution 

So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany

image.png.d25e8cf4f87df0cbb837be44dc39a9c0.png

This is different. The scale on that map Eric Webber posted is different.

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. B)

wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff.  Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies.

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