PCT_ATC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Would it have been iconic? is anything ever Iconic for Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Between the blocking and the post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a wall off the east coast, the New Years storm is stuck over the Midwest with nowhere to go it seems. ETA: on the 00z GFS. Eventually cuts to the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Maybe we need a GL bomb to shake things up a little.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You sure about that? BRUH WOTY Post nominee right here. Huh? Wait, why? I wasn't saying that I thought that way...(at least not anymore)...but hypothesized about the psychological effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Probably belongs in the digital h5 thread....guess we just need a +5 sig west based block to offset the pac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Real shame we can’t get more PAC cooperation. We wait years for the Atlantic to get it together and this is what we get. Still think January has potential through at least the first half. When was the last time we even had PAC cooperation? Lol Seems like it's been forever! Is it just less cooperative in general than it used to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Real shame we can’t get more PAC cooperation. We wait years for the Atlantic to get it together and this is what we get. Still think January has potential through at least the first half. My thoughts exactly....We (myself included) always expect threats to line up exactly with good/great looks but that is rarely the case it seems. I still think the potential is high as we enter Jan....frustrating being patient but I still think this pattern needs to mature. Cant create a logjam in the ATL overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seen worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Finally starting to see the temp anomalies we need showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Not hating the mean precip distribution during that same period either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. I think he is trying to show how similar the advertised look is to the patterns for some of our biggest storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 @Ji Just sayin maybe we should let this play out. The blocking is just establishing itself next week. With each wave break it retrogrades more into a canonical blocking regime. Both the TPV and SPV look to get obliterated soon. We typically score after the blocking peaks not before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. Those are the big 5 storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Regardless how this ends up, love the look of a strong high pressure overtop to prevent the storm from cutting. Edit: Unfortunately, the high pressure system moves out of the way allowing the low pressure system over Texas to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Regardless how this ends up, love the look of a strong high pressure overtop to prevent the storm from cutting. Edit: Unfortunately, the high pressure system moves out of the way allowing the low pressure system over Texas to cut. Trough is way too amplified too far west. Pumps ridging ahead. No confluence. Cutter. But a whole lot of higher heights up top by day 10. I know patience is difficult but after the AO/NAO bottoms out and starts to relax is our favored time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 One last observation. The runs that show snow around New Years do so by splitting the energy out west. There are multiple SWs crashing in next week. Runs that keep them separated and bring them out in pieces are further south. If they consolidate into one amplified trough out west the storm cuts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Day 10 That’s a lot of red in the right places 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10 That’s a lot of red in the right places I was going to say Day 10 (of course it does since its Day 10 lol) looked enticing at h5... probably get a storm chance in the few days after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Finally starting to see the temp anomalies we need showing up. However with a torched source region for arctic airmasses and an increasing sun angle is a recipe for disaster. I am not surprised anyone can look at these graphics with a semblance of sanity and see the writing on the wall. The corona extinction of aerosols is what got us but we were already close to the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji Just sayin maybe we should let this play out. The blocking is just establishing itself next week. With each wave break it retrogrades more into a canonical blocking regime. Both the TPV and SPV look to get obliterated soon. We typically score after the blocking peaks not before. Yeah its going to take some patience, Both the EPS and GEFS build the +heights more NW towards the Davis strait by the first week of Jan. Until then its going to be a struggle to get something to track underneath with a lot of energy dropping down so far west, and the NA ridge in the near term displaced too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hopefully this doesn't become a can kicking exercise in the LR. This is where we want the block, and we hope for some Pacific cooperation. This is a good look right here. EPS has an impressive west based -NAO as well, but maybe a bit less favorable look out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Not hating the mean precip distribution during that same period either there is a big hole over DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10 That’s a lot of red in the right places Unfortunately, the blue is all types of wrong out west lol. It’s always 10 days away @psuhoffman lol. Crazy block though 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Hopefully this doesn't become a can kicking exercise in the LR. This is where we want the block, and we hope for some Pacific cooperation. This is a good look right here. EPS has an impressive west based -NAO as well, but maybe a bit less favorable look out west. Again, one frame at 384 hours. And flow looks pretty flat coming off the PAC. I’m beginning to worry that we won’t score with a bad PAC and troughing south of AK. Seems like that a recipe for warm wet, cold dry sequence over and over again. Can’t not expect it though. That’s kinda La Niña for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a big hole over DC It’s more over you. Leesburg SH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a big hole over DC No that is over Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Unfortunately, the blue is all types of wrong out west lol. It’s always 10 days away @psuhoffman lol. Crazy block though Again, one frame at 384 hours. And flow looks pretty flat coming off the PAC. I’m beginning to worry that we won’t score with a bad PAC and troughing south of AK. Seems like that a recipe for warm wet, cold dry sequence over and over again. Can’t not expect it though. That’s kinda La Niña for you Let me guess, you always approach model and map reading with a "what could go wrong" eye? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: One last observation. The runs that show snow around New Years do so by splitting the energy out west. There are multiple SWs crashing in next week. Runs that keep them separated and bring them out in pieces are further south. If they consolidate into one amplified trough out west the storm cuts. Seems as though there will be multiple +EAMT events upcoming. Hopefully, this provides a few +PNA intervals, coinciding with a storm threat for us in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Member count continues to increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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