howrdcounty snow

Anthony Masiello @antmasiello · Feb 26 Quick glance at the latest guidance and I'm getting the December vibes: split flow, "Niño look" with a tendency for cyclones to break in NW Atlantic (which drops the NAO). This process is only reinforced if follow-up cyclones do so. If a model doesn't do that, system breaks down.

Anthony Masiello @antmasiello · 18h Oh, and as long as the streams stay somewhat split with cyclones breaking near north america, it can redevelop more nao blips. Since this is a function of cyclone development, models can easily lose signal in extended range. Something to keep an eye on. AAM /Pacific is hostile. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello · 18h Lol at the -NAO and 50-50 low in a week.

very good read Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/19/friday-funny-nature-makes-a-mockery-of-month-ahead-model-forecasts/

MJO phase Average conditions Average OLR Cloudiness Regional cloudiness Time longitude Weekly note MJO phase diagram Current Phase: Archive:

Arctic heating near the Barents-Kara Seas is related to a cold Asia, heating in the Chukchi Sea is related to cold North America but heating near Greenland brings equal opportunity cold to Asia, Europe & North America, consistent with latest GFS forecast: https://rdcu.be/bZAqO 9:27 AM · Feb 18, 2021·Twitter W

Judah Cohen @judah47 "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!

FROM LARRY COSGROVE This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit. I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats. But it's going to take some time, this time!

1 -4 in snowstorm then 3 ice storms, great md weather, with blocking, reminds me of the winter of 94, Siberian express and nothing but freezing rain for the whole winter, closed down the pentagon for a week it was so cold. Now who knows what's next!!!

FROM LARRY COSGROVE a long winter still ahead FWIW Even though there are model forecasts that suggest the stratospheric warming event will collapse in the first week of March, lower layer translation of the 10MB features is usually not seen until perhaps three weeks later. Personally, I believe the analog forecast thats says we will have to wait until the first week of April before our current colder pattern breaks down. The analog system scored very well in December and January, and pointed out the recent tendency for pronounced -NAO ridging and European cold. And also showed the split storm track pattern, though not as strong as what actually transpired through the southern and eastern U.S. last month.

gfs-euro 5 days out fantasy gfs -euro 48 hrs out reality basis 62 years of following the weather

what woman did her dr thesis on the NAO and east coast storms

blizzard of 66 was the very same way

I remember the last great over running event , my mother died the next morning, got almost 2 ft

thanks, I don't post very much so I appreciate your comments

aw I don't consider it a worry, more like a joyous event considering how much snow we have had so far, I don't know what a SER is, there is always something wrong to us getting snow, but WTH